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Digital-only releases: the future of the music industry?

The future of the music industry seems rooted in everything but the industry. This month has certainly showed how far that reality is after Radiohead's self-release of In Rainbows, the band's seventh album, as an internet-only download (for the time being). But Radiohead is not the only successful band to eschew the input of the music industry. Even before Radiohead's album became sensational news, fellow English band Oasis had announced the release of an internet-only single, "Lord Don't Slow Me Down," as a self-release as well.

Two examples may not seem threatening for an industry that has been around for decades, but when artists can self-release music as wide as these have been, the music industry certainly looks decrepit. A self-release always seemed to amount to nothing more than an underground tape, or a limited pressing, but with the internet and the "efficiency" it has over the music industry, that just is not the case anymore. These two examples (and many other cases not mentioned here) are important because artists do not need the industry anymore.

What remains to ask is if we, as consumers, need the industry anymore? It's too early to give a well-educated answer to that, especially as many of the big artists are still "controlled" by the industry. This should not sound as a industry blast either, because despite the decline that seems to be occurring, the music business still offers a number of products and offers that are entertaining and wanted. At this point, we need the industry and that may never change. What will change hopefully is the way the music industry operates.

If the industry could make is all more accessible, then there would be no question between paying less for an album in ten days versus waiting three months for an overpriced CD.

As Nokia launches iTune and iPhone competition, Motorola fades

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) made a big fuss today as it launched an online music system and several multimedia phones. Some will have new touch screens like the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone. These are going to market in Europe almost immediately. Apple has not given a date for an iPhone launch there.

Most of the competition for Apple's music and device products is laughed at on Wall Street, Steve Jobs & Co. have sold over 120 million iPods which fuels traffic to iTunes. The iPhone is the most anticipated handset launch ever.

But, Nokia has what no other company can claim--a 36 share of the global handset market. Reuters writes that the company estimates that the global multimedia phone market will grow by 50% to 120 million units this year from 80 million in 2006.

With such a large market share, investors want to know where Nokia will go for future growth. It says the new revenue will come from software and service. The software will power multimedia phones. The services will include its new music store.

It is a frightening exercise for Motorola (NYSE: MOT) shareholders to look back at the launch of the RAZR and hit tremendous success which was still evident less than two years ago. Nothing prevented Motorola from riding the sales of that handset to get into the mobile media download business.

And, now it is too late.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Before the bell 2-06-07: Tyco, Ford, Wal-Mart, Kodak

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) -- Tyco, which is being split into three companies, reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Net income rose 43 percent to $793 million, or 39 cents per share, compared with $556 million, or 27 cents. Revenue rose 8 percent to $10.3 billion. Profit from continuing operations was 45 cents, 1 cent better than Wall Street expectations, according to Reuters. Revenue was seen at $10.27 billion, the wire service said.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) -- Ford is bringing back the Taurus brand, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The struggling automaker will announce Wednesday at the Chicago auto show that its Ford Five Hundred mid-size sedan will be renamed after the once best-selling model, the wire service said. Chief Executive Alan Mulally has been a fan of the Taurus brand and there's been speculation in the press about its return, Dow Jones said. In other news, U.S. investors Nelson Peltz is reportedly the front runner to buy Ford's Aston Martin unit.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) -- Wal-Mart became the latest company to offer downloads of movies and television shows. New movies will be available on the day of the DVD release for $12.88 to $19.88 with catalog titles starting at $7.50. TV shows will be $1.96 per episode. Kevin Swint, Wal-Mart's merchandise manager for digital media, called the new service "an unprecedented offering of video content, features and capabilities currently unmatched in the market." It has the support of major Hollywood studios.

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE:EK) -- Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE:EK) is taking on Hewlett-Packard Co. (Nasdaq:HPQ) in the printer market. The film company today introduced a line of desktop printers and low-cost replacements inks.

Amazon gets a second wind

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is getting a second wind.

Shares of the number one etailer have risen about 12% over the past three months, outperforming rivals including eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Borders Group Inc. (NYSE:BGP) and Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS). Heck, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) barely moved during that same period.

Does this mean that investors are suddenly true believers? I don't think so. There is some enthusiasm for Amazon's digital business like the Amazon Unbox video download service. Plus, Amazon had gotten beaten down so badly for so long that investors finally said that enough was enough. Whether their optimism was justified will be apparent February 1 when the company issues quarterly earnings.

The fourth quarter is critical for Amazon and other retailers, since it includes the holiday season, but Wall Street isn't expecting much. Analysts expect the Seattle-based company to earn 21 cents, compared with 47 cents a year earlier, according to Thomson Financial. Revenue is also expected to fall to $3.77 billion, versus $2.78 billion a year earlier.

But most Wall Street analysts don't seem to be beating the drum for Amazon. In fact, they are pretty divided. Seven rate the stock a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold, and 10 a sell. Their media target is $34, below where it currently trades. The worries about Amazon's growth prospects, spending and thin profit margins seem to be as strong as ever.

Continue reading Amazon gets a second wind

Eastman Kodak to sell Health Group for as much as $2.55 billion

Eastman Kodak Inc. agreed to sell its Health Group to Onex Corp. for as much as $2.55 billion, helping it cut debt and focus on the consumer and professional digital-imaging business.

Under the terms of the deal, $2.35 billion in cash is due at closing. Onex will also pay as much as $200 million depending on the returns it gets on its investment, the Rochester, NY company said.

Reaction to the deal was positive. Eastman Kodak shares rose in pre-market trading.

"The divestiture of the health group would help to bolster Kodak's stock,'' said Standard & Poors equity analyst Tom Graves, who rates the company a hold, in a January 4 interview with Bloomberg News. "People would look at Kodak as a company having a narrower focus. If they become a less complex company, that would be rewarded by a higher valuation.''

Two weeks ago, Kodak said it would make an announcement in early 2007 about the strategic review of the business that had begun in May, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required). High silver prices helped pushed down the division's earnings by 29 percent to $68 million in the third quarter, the paper said.

GE & NBC expect a billion in digital profits -- only the beginning?

Internet-ready televisonNBC, a subsidiary of General Electric (GE), expects to make a billion in profit from digital content by 2009. This, from a company that actively tried to quash viral web clip activity early in the year, even though that one clip "Lazy Sunday" arguably made Saturday Night Live hip again -- or at least got people talking about the show. Over at our sister blog, TVSquad, Brett Love reports that AT&T is set to offer 20 web channels of broadband internet television. Right here, my colleague Victoria Erhart wrote about Time Warner's new offerings. It's a long way from the original WebTV.

Al Gore (himself a TV exec, besides his other projects) believes that television needs to become more internet-like, that the internet itself is still a long ways from being technologically able to replicate television's power to reach people.

Has mainstream video content on the internet reached the tipping point? Maybe the real question is, how long from now is the day when the internet and television are the same thing?

Prelim thoughts on Amazon moving into movie download fray: do it cheaper

Cheap 3D GlassesApple's iTunes will probably start offering movies soon, and Amazon too, has entered the movie download biz according to press reports today. Amazon (AMZN) will also offer television shows, priced at exactly what iTunes charges: $1.99 an episode. Movies will cost around $8 to $15 at Amazon, and movies can also be rented for around $4. No idea how extensive their offerings will be, but if $15 is the high end for new releases that seems fairly in line with what Apple's expected to do. Consumers will have to figure out their own storage means for digital movies they decide to buy. Will you be burning each of these to a DVD, effectively transferring the manufacturing process to your home? Or will you store everything on drives? The main advantage to me seems to be the ability to get the stuff immediately, and without shipping charges.

Just today happened to read a New York Times article about online-only magazine subscriptions, and was struck by the fact to many online-only subscriptions cost exactly as much as buying the print version. The publisher gets to pocket the money saved in printing costs, and this is probably partly why, for example, Popular Mechanics has 1.2 million print subscribers and only 5000 email digital subscribers. Call it: "we cut costs and don't pass the savings on to you" merchandising. Asking us to give up the sense of ownership that a hard copy provides ought to be worth a deeper discount off convention media on this stuff. Make it cheaper and we will buy more of it.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:12 AM

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