Unfortunately, today the nightmare scenario came true -- Digital River's largest customer, Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC), will not renew its contract (which expires on June 30th).
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FeedSymantec drowns Digital River
Unfortunately, today the nightmare scenario came true -- Digital River's largest customer, Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC), will not renew its contract (which expires on June 30th).
Cry me a Digital River
Not all companies are reporting disappointing earnings. Recently shares of Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) soared as the company posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. The e-commerce software service provider said it earned 48 cents per share in the quarter, excluding amortization and stock-based compensation charges, beating analysts' expectations of 44 cents per share according to Thomson Reuters.
Symantec earnings reveal a struggling company
This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Katz.
Regarding Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) earnings, the company is having a tough time in this environment for several reasons. First, its consumer business saw a massive slowdown starting in September. Digital River, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) reported earnings a day before SYMC and tipped the hand of SYMC's consumer business stating that its core business grew 27% sans SYMC, yet the business overall grew at 17% YoY.
Secondly, currency helped SYMC over the past two years and the strength in the dollar has created a stiff headwind.
Third, the company is losing market share in the enterprise to McAfee, Inc. (NYSE: MFE) which, due to more efficient R&D as well as smart acquisitions, can now outstack SYMC.
So what to do here? The stock is cheap, and given the amount of recurring revenue that it has, along with the number of pure play software companies that have technology SYMC needs, the company will likely assemble a competitive response. Then it becomes a function of management execution. Ultimately, I think MFE presents the better risk reward for growth investors, while SYMC is more appropriate for a value investor looking to buy discounted cashflow.
Analyst downgrades: JLL, DRIV, BOOM, ALLT and OXM
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jones Lang LaSalle, Digital River, Dynamic Materials, Allot Communications and Oxford Industries were today's noteworthy downgrades:- Wachovia downgraded shares of Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) to Market Perform from Outperform, as they expect the deterioration in the credit markets to lead to fewer closed deals over the next year.
- Oppenheimer transitioned coverage of Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) and downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy. The broker finds shares fairly valued given the pricing pressure and customer concentration.
- Jefferies downgraded shares of Dynamic Materials Corporation (NASDAQ: BOOM) to Hold from Buy on valuation as they believe shares are already pricing in the company's near-term earnings potential.
- Allot Communications (NASDAQ: ALLT) was downgraded to Sector Performer from Outperformer at CIBC World Markets after the company pre-announced weaker-than-expected Q3 results.
- Oxford Industries (NYSE: OXM) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Morgan Joseph and to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust following the disappointing Q1 report and guidance.
- Piper Jaffray downgraded Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) to Market Perform from Outperform.
- Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
- JP Morgan removed Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) from its Focus List.
- NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Calyon.
Analyst upgrades 6-20-07: CEO, CL, HD, NYX and TWC
MOST NOTEWORTHY: CNOOC Ltd (CEO), NYSE EuroNext (NYX), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Digital River (DRIV) and Home Depot (HD) topped today's more noteworthy upgrades: - Credit Suisse upgraded shares of CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Outperform from Neutral to reflect projections for output growth...
- Piper upgraded NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the risk/reward is balanced following the completion of the Euronext acquisition. They believe shares can move higher if the company's market share is stabilized...
- Bear upgraded shares of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing the integration of the L.A. systems, which they feel is progressing smoothly, and potential for increased equity returns...
- Jefferies upgraded shares of Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they find the risk/reward attractive at current levels and believe new customers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Electronic Arts (ERTS) will diversify the company's revenue base...
- Home Depot (NYSE HD) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel following the company's sale of its HD Supply unit, as well as its $22.5B repurchase program...
- Morgan Stanley raised Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
- RBC Capital upgraded Allos Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ALTH) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
- Merrill Lynch was upgraded Centene Corp (NYSE: CNC) to Neutral from Sell.
Analyst initiations 2-07-07: American Tech started Digital River with a Buy rating
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Digital River Inc (DRIV) was today's only notable initiation. - American Technology initiated Digital River Inc (NASDAQ: DRIV) with a Buy rating and $65 target. The firm believes Q1 guidance could be weak, but feels weakness would be short-lived as investors gain a better understanding of Digital River's Microsoft Corp- (NASDAQ: MSFT) driven revenue and margin upside in the second-half of 2007...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
- Merriman initiated Idera Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMEX: IDP) with a Buy rating and put fair value at $10-$12 a share.
- Merrill Lynch reinstated Nvidia Corp (NASDAQL NVDA) and KLA-Tencor Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC) with Buy ratings.
- Jefferies initiated CommScope Inc (NYSE: CTV) with a Buy rating and $37.50 target; they believe CommScope is a solid play with trends such as increasing competition among cable operators and wireline service providers as well as increasing bandwidth consumption by enterprises.
- Raymond James started Keystone Automotive Inds Inc (NASDAQ: KEYS) with a Market Perform rating.
- Roth Capital initiated G. Willis Food Int'l Ltd (NASDAQ: WILC) with a Buy rating and 48 target; Roth expects the largest marketer and distributor in Israel of kosher food products to grow at a 15%-20% rate over the next several years.
- JP Morgan initiated Covanta Holding Corp (NYSE: CVA) with a Neutral rating on valuation.
Analyst initiations 11-15-06: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) top today's modest list of initiations.
- Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) was reinstated at Credit Suisse with an Outperform rating and $600 target. The firm said the YouTube deal positions Google as the top online video destination globally.
- Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and a $90 target at Bernstein. The firm said expectations are too high and upside potential is limited.
- Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) was initiated at Bear Stearns with a Peer Perform rating. The firm considered shares of Microsoft fully valued.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) was initiated with a Buy rating and $49 target at Soliel. The firm said Amazon is near an inflection where it could leverage IT, systems and distribution investments in order to drive earnings growth.
- Digital River, Inc. (NASDAQ:DRIV) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Thomas Weisel citing the recently announced Microsoft contract, wins in electronics segments and valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).



