Founded in 1950, New York-based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the US in terms of card transaction volumes, after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS)and Capital One (COF).

What differentiates American Express from MasterCard and Visa is its relatively more affluent customer base, which it maintains by offering generous benefits and reward programs. Since American Express brings higher spending consumers to merchants, it can charge a higher commission (known as the interchange fee) on sales. Also, unlike Visa and MasterCard, American Express only issues charge and credit card products but not debit cards, which have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past couple of years. With these critical differences in mind, we explore the opportunities that lie ahead for American Express in an evolving macroeconomic environment.

Our price estimate is $47.16, which is just slightly higher than the current market price.

Impact of Regulatory Reforms

The Obama Administration in February 2010 passed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, or the CARD Act which enforces more disclosure about interest rates, caps on service fees, grace periods and also makes it difficult for people under the age of 21 to obtain cards. All this is expected to negatively impact the growth in the number of cards in use but lead to lower net write-off rates and defaults by card members.

The Durbin Amendment, enacted in July 2010, granted the Fed the power to control the levels of this fee. In December, the Fed enforced one such limit - 12 cents per debit card transaction. While this adversely affects the two largest card payments-processing networks Visa and MasterCard, which also issue debit cards, we believe it presents upside opportunity for American Express as credit cards would gain prominence over debit cards, at least from the issuers' end.

Improving Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic conditions are improving in the US, albeit at a slow pace. The unemployment levels are still close to historical high levels but on a downward slope, declining from 9.8% in November 2010 to 9.4% in December 2010. Consumer spending has picked up and so have the corresponding card transactions.

Household purchases, which constitute about 70% of the economy, grew at 4.4% in December 2010, the highest since the first quarter of 2006.American Express' card delinquency rates (the proportion of outstanding balances past the due date to total balances) continues to decline month on month to 2.1% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. Charge-offs (the loans deemed uncollectible and hence, written-off) also declined from 5.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Improvements in macroeconomic conditions hint at more relaxed card-issuing criteria and higher credit limits.

If spending increases more than we currently forecast, this could improve our price estimate. Drag the trend line in the modifiable chart above to see the impact. For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.

See our estimates for American Express.

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Southwest Airlines (LUV) is hosting an analyst meeting on December 16. Overall option implied volatility of 31 is below its 26-week average of 35, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on December 16. Overall option implied volatility of 37 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

It really wasn't a very good news day for stocks, but the market was flat anyway. The University of Michigan consumer index hit a one year low, which was not expected. It dropped to 66.6 in September from 68.9 last month. Consensus estimates were for the number to be 70.

Consumer inflation literally dropped to zero, once food and energy were factored out. There has not been much talk about deflation recently, but when price pressure dissipates, the specter appears.

Today's closing bell numbers:

Dow Jones 10,607.85 +13.02 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,125.59 +0.93 (0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,315.61 +12.36 (0.54%)

For the past couple days, I was at the Card Forum & Expo in Miami. There was a lot of buzz about debit cards, alternative payments – such as BillMeLater.com and Revolution Money – as well as mobile applications.

But there was also lots of talk about the recent buyout deal -- Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) agreed to purchase the Diners Club International network from Citigroup (NYSE: C). The price tag came to $165 million.

Actually, Diners Club is a pioneer, having created the first major platform for charge cards (back in 1950).

No doubt, it was mainly for the affluent, and in the world of credit cards, Diners looks more like a niche player. So why the interest from Discover?

Basically, it's a way to move more aggressively into global markets as cards from Diners are accepted in more than 185 countries.

According to Discover, the deal is expected to add $10 million to $15 million in annual pre-tax profits – which is certainly good news. So, in yesterday's trading, Discover's stock price was up 5.5% to $18.09.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Certain banks, VASCO Data Security and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• UBS downgraded shares of Discover (NYSE: DFS) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Sell from Neutral and American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Sell from Buy, as they believe a U.S.-led recession will lead to increased credit losses.
• Jefferies downgraded shares of VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's exposure to the financial services market, as they believe 2008 will be a tough year for small companies selling into tightening IT budgets.
• Merriman lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, as they believe the stock is pricing in upside from strong website traffic seen in January driven by refinance activity and Fed rate cuts. Citigroup downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less compelling at current levels.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan removed SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) from its Top 3 Picks List.
• Goldman downgraded CSK Auto (NYSE: CAO) to Neutral from Buy and removed Google (GOOG) from its Conviction Buy List.
• Baird lowered Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Neutral from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genitope Corp, Discover Financial and Mine Safety Appliances were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Genitope Corp (NASDAQ: GTOP) was downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital following MyVax's failure to meet its Phase III trial endpoint.
  
• Calyon downgraded shares of Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS) to Neutral from Buy citing the weak macro environment.
  
• Soleil downgraded Mine Safety Appliances (NYSE: MSA) to Hold from Buy at Soleil on valuation..

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Calyon downgraded Pride International (NYSE: PDE) to Neutral from Add.