A word to the wise: Investors should ignore and/or avoid those in the popular press who rush forward with pronouncements about the dollar vis-à-vis the world's other, major currencies.

Sometimes you'll see them on the 24-hour cable news channels at night on FoxNews (NWS), CNN (TWX), and MSNBC (GE). Their research is often simplistic at best, and at times, it's outright wrong.

One common, conventional wisdom articulation concerns the dollar, and it's 'imminent collapse.' Nothing could be further from the truth. But that's the type of flippant conclusion one gets when one uses superficial analysis, as in 'U.S. budget deficit up, U.S. dollar down.'

The US dollar is down 20% since 2002 on a trade weighted basis. Other world economies like China are dynamic, with growth rates of 8 and 9%. With that kind of clout, countries like China, India and Brazil, can choose where to place their reserves.

Slowly, developing countries are shifting their reserves away from the dollar into the euro and yen. Neil Mellor, strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE: BK), which has some $20 trillion dollars in assets under custody said: "I don't think there will be an imminent move, but it is quite clear there's a plan to shift reserves to a more balanced portfolio."

Barclays Capital Research reported that central banks placed 63% of new cash in non US currencies between April and July.

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have kept interest rates low for some time. Interest rates lie somewhere below a quarter point and a zero, giving people very little reason to save. Why should you save money when inflation could work against you and the money will not grow?

Low interest rates also work to reduce the cost of borrowing. This could help businesses that want to expand, or the federal government that has trillions of dollars of debt that it needs to finance.

We had a lot of big names trading up to new 52 week highs again today. The overall markets were pretty flat, with the DOW closing the day down 0.14%, the NASDAQ closing the day's trading up 0.04%, and the S&P ending the day a bit lower to finish today's trading down 0.28%.

Here are a few of the names that moved higher during the day to set new 52 week highs.

Investors have probably heard Obama administration officials, like previous Bush administration officials –- and just about every other administration since 1981 -- rattle off the mantra, 'The United States is committed to a strong dollar' even as the dollar continues to weaken. What's going on here?

Well, first: the currency market, long-term, emphasizes actions, not words, and current U.S. public policies do not support the dollar. To strengthen it, the U.S. must cut its trade deficit, eliminate the budget deficit, and get the U.S. economy growing at an adequate rate again.

The U.S. dollar continued to decline today, and has helped push gold prices up sharply in today's action.

The dollar has been very weak lately, and as more concern mounts of the dollar's strength more investors are rushing into the precious metal, which traded up as high as $1,069.70 today, and is currently up $1.70 an ounce to $1,059.20.

The US dollar is cascading downward. This move is causing banks, especially central banks, to shift reserves out of the dollar into the euro and yen.

A Bloomberg survey reports that policy makers boosted currency holdings by $41.3 billion dollars in the last quarter. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63% of this new cash into euros, and yen. The dollar's share fell to 37% from 63% in 1998.

How is this affecting the dollar on the commodity futures markets? The dollar fell to 75.77 last week on the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE). This is the lowest level since March 4th, when it was at 89.62 (The dollar is traded against a basket of currencies.)

Is a 'super-currency' – one that could for all intents and purpose replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency – possible?

Well, it is possible, but in this case the aforementioned switch would certainly be super, as it would represent a gargantuan task and adjustment period for members of the global financial system.

Gold jumped to $1033 per ounce on Tuesday, hitting a record high. Oil rose $1 per barrel. The December dollar contract is at $76.53, down $0.305 (as of 8:11 EDT).

Why is gold moving up? A news story in The Independent, a British paper, reported that secret talks are underway to dump the dollar as the currency for oil transactions. Included in the talks were China, Russia, Japan and France. They want is to replace the U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies and gold.

What's one way to lower U.S. gasoline prices? Cut the U.S. budget deficit.

The two seemingly disparate conditions are, in fact, linked. A large deficit, such as the one the United States has been running for basically the past decade (and especially since the start of the financial crisis), weakens the dollar.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) will get its chance to impress Wall Street when it reports its most recent quarterly results Tuesday following the market close. The company will be reporting its fiscal first quarter numbers, and analysts are expecting slightly lower numbers that its first quarter last year.

The giant in sports apparel and footwear last reported earnings back on June 24 when it was able to outpace analyst estimates, and this time around analysts are looking for the company to show earnings of 97 cents per share. In its first quarter last year, the company reported earnings of $1.03 per share.

The dollar fell to an eight-month low versus Japan's yen Monday, down about one-quarter yen to 89.37, and placed into the currency market spotlight the season's most compelling question to-date: will the Bank of Japan intervene to stem the yen's rise versus the buck?

Those who say central bank officials will intervene to weaken the yen argue that export-dependent Japan will be hurt if the yen appreciates more against the dollar. The yen has already risen about 20% versus the greenback in the past 12 months, and further yen increases, assuming Japan's exporters raise prices to protect their dollar-denominated profits, will result in lost sales, as Japanese goods --- particularly autos --- become too expensive for American consumers.

Commodities in general and oil and gold specifically are considered a good hedge against inflation, a weak dollar and flat trending stocks. However, these markets can also be very volatile as oil and gold traders are finding out this week.

Oil inventories are up (not good for prices) and demand from refineries is down, which has put some additional downside pressure on the commodity. A stronger dollar the last two days has compounded oil's problems and sent prices below $67 a barrel.

Today was a weak day even before the leading economic indicators brought a disappointment. The dollar was strong ahead of the FOMC meeting decision this week, where the Fed is expected to give less free money but will likely hold rates firm. The good news is that despite a negative news bias from companies, the drops were not as hard as they could have been.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,778.93 -41.27 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,064.71 -3.59 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,138.04 +5.18 (0.24%)

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It's almost October and the pundits are at again, predicting that the market should sell off again. Let's look at their reasoning.

• We have an ongoing deterioration in consumer debt.
• Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate, says that "the U.S. banking sector is now in worse shape than before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
• Bank profitability is expected to come under pressure.
• The U.S. housing outlook is grim.