The U.S. dollar is coming under increasing pressure on several fronts. First and foremost is oil. Oil closed at $102 per barrel Wednesday for the first time in over two years. Oil has been driven upwards by the turmoil in the Middle East. The Libyan situation is getting worse with both sides vowing to fight on. There is unrest throughout the Arab region. The great fear for the West is that oil flows may be disrupted. The U.S. dollar usually moves inversely to oil. Today the March futures closed at 76.689, down .394

Amid the political and social uprisings in the Middle East, and union protests in the U.S., a recent speech by a pivotal U.S. policy maker received little attention, but it's one that investors should review.

In a speech before the recent G-20 meeting, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged emerging market nations to address the flood of money streaming into their markets.

The beleaguered U.S. dollar, which has weakened about 50% versus the euro and about 11% versus the British pound since 2002, is down but hardly out.

The dollar has rallied in the past two months versus the euro (up 8%) and pound (up about 4%), on renewed concern about sovereign debt in Europe. This time, the concern is about Portugal's debt, and the impact continued credit market woes would have on both euro-zone and United Kingdom GDP growth.

On Tuesday, Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates said his country will not need a bail-out, and its budget deficit will be lower than forecast, Bloomberg News reported. He said rumors that the country needs aid are helping "speculators" while hurting Portugal and driving down the euro.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the Dow index falling 0.2%.

No major U.S. economic data are due to be released today.

The recent sell-off in risk assets can be largely attributed to the strength in the U.S. dollar. While on a longer term basis the general decline in the greenback may make fundamental sense, on a near term basis, the currency looks to be oversold and could continue to rally for weeks or months. This is particularly true when considering the precarious nature of the European sovereign debt situation.

It was not that long ago that many observers and investors were calling for the euro to hit parity with the greenback. The recent Irish problems suggest that this kind of talk may get started once again and a substantial decline in the euro seems like a possibility. This is a bullish indication for the dollar.

The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has bubbled to the surface again. This time Ireland is in the cross hairs. Ireland may need aid, primarily to bail out its banks. Ireland says it has enough cash to carry it through next summer, but the key concern is keeping Irish banks afloat during this crisis. So far, Ireland hasn't requested financial aid from the European Union.

This uncertainty has set off a selling spree in the euro. About two weeks ago the euro was trading at $1.42. Since the Irish crisis began the euro dropped to $1.35.

Reuters quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as saying: "We're not in the business of trying to create inflation. Our purpose is to provide additional stimulus to help the economy recover and to avoid potentially additional disinflation, which I think we'll all agree could also be worrisome."

Bernanke claims that inflation is below the Fed's 2% target. That's hogwash! Sure if you use the "core" CPI, which leaves out food and energy, that may be the case. Not to worry.

The gold market exploded Thursday with the December contract up $45.50 to $1,383.10 per ounce, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

As usual, there are lots of reasons for the spectacular rise. The two main ones are currency worries and inflation.

Let's take the currency issue first. The December U.S. dollar contract is hovering just above the 75 level. That level held and the dollar then rose to 89.11. Now it has come back down to the 75 level. A breach of 75 would signal a further move down.