BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Two Signs the Economy Will Survive]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/08/signs-the-economy-will-survive/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/08/signs-the-economy-will-survive/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/08/signs-the-economy-will-survive/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

economic recoveryThe mainstream media is overflowing with hyperventilating bears preaching about a depression. All fear-mongering aside, we see two very positive developments in the U.S. economy: retail and corporate spending.

1. Retail Spending

The International Council of Shopping Centers has announced that retail sales expanded at the highest pace since September 2006. Luxury retailers posted an eye-popping 8% rise in sales. Seems like consumption is our culture. Some people think the U.S. consumer has changed. Personally, I would never bet against the DNA of a tribe ... and ours is shopping. As my brother Derek said, "In the Great Depression we had bread lines. Now, there are Apple (AAPL) iPhone 4 lines." That is a mind-blowing distinction.

Continue reading Two Signs the Economy Will Survive

Two Signs the Economy Will Survive originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Jul 2010 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLADBEAdobebread linesbrother derekciscoCSCODavid RosenbergDellDoug Kassfeaturedgreat depressionhyperventilatinginternational council of shopping centersinthenewsiphoneiphone 4luxury retailersMicrosoftORCLSAPThu, 08 Jul 2010 12:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Cramer on BloggingStocks: Reasonable speculation]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/27/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-reasonable-speculation/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/27/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-reasonable-speculation/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/27/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-reasonable-speculation/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , ,

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bizarre rules these days make it worth looking at stocks through a different lens.

How much should we care about low-dollar speculation? How much should we care about the incessant trading in CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) (Cramer's Take), or Vonage (NYSE: VG) (Cramer's Take) and Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take)? Or even Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take)?

First, I have to tell you that I worry about it less than I used to. Why? Because when we used to have rules and government officials that were willing to speak the truth about stocks, we wouldn't have these single-digit players out there every day. But without it, how in heck can people not believe that Fannie and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) are the biggest and best bets on a turn in housing?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Reasonable speculation

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Reasonable speculation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AIGAlcatel-LucentALUCITCitigroupDoug KassFannie MaeFannieMaefeaturedFNMFREFreddie MacRobert BenmoschespeculationSprintVGVonageThu, 27 Aug 2009 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Cramer on BloggingStocks: You should never be too proud to learn ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/18/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-you-should-never-be-too-proud-to-learn/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/18/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-you-should-never-be-too-proud-to-learn/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/18/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-you-should-never-be-too-proud-to-learn/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says just because an idea isn't 'yours' doesn't mean it can't make you money.

Sometimes when you are thinking the correction is shallow, you cling to totems. While the close last night was terrible, the moment I read that Doug was covering his rental shorts, I said, "Time to put some cash to work" -- cash that we had raised in Action Alerts PLUS the last two weeks as part of our disciplined scale-into-strength methodology.

There are so many ways to try to divine what is going to happen in the market. My favorite, though, is to find out who was smart enough to be in the right direction for the vicious move up or down and see what he is doing.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: You should never be too proud to learn

Cramer on BloggingStocks: You should never be too proud to learn originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Aug 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bacdoug kassDougKassfeaturedjim cramerJimCramerjpmTue, 18 Aug 2009 09:40:00 EST<![CDATA[The 'big picture' of our economy]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/08/the-big-picture-of-our-economy/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/08/the-big-picture-of-our-economy/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/08/the-big-picture-of-our-economy/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.

Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.

Continue reading The 'big picture' of our economy

The 'big picture' of our economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Alan GraysonBailout NationBarry RitholtzBig Picture ConferenceBlack SwanDoug KassFannie MaefeaturedFNMFREFreddie MacJosh RosnerNassim TalebTimothy GeithnerMon, 08 Jun 2009 14:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/08/21/fannie-freddie-flameout-winners-and-losers/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/08/21/fannie-freddie-flameout-winners-and-losers/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/08/21/fannie-freddie-flameout-winners-and-losers/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

I am not sure that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) will make it through the month as public companies. Barron's quoted an anonymous senior official -- who sounds an awful lot like Hank Paulson to me -- that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. Since then, investors have been dumping shares of Fannie and Freddie like there's no tomorrow.

Who wins and who loses if Fannie and Freddie's shareholders are wiped out? As I said on CNBC's Power Lunch this afternoon, the winners are investors who shorted Fannie and Freddie years ago and are now reaping enormous profits. I also think that some Wall Street investment banks will win big as they get the job of selling off Fannie and Freddie's pieces. The losers are their biggest common and preferred shareholders -- including some well known mutual funds.

The winners are:

  • Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings - Rogers originally shorted Freddie and Fannie in March 2006 and appeared on Bloomberg on November 20, 2007 to discuss why he did it and where he thought their stocks would go.
  • Doug Noland, Prudent Bear - As I posted, since the late 1990s, Noland's research has concluded that Freddie and Fannie would "shudder" when the US credit bubble eventually burst. Noland has profited from the short bets he made -- but he says it is emotionally painful to watch them fail.

Continue reading Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers

Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>alliancebernsteinalliancebernstein global high income fundalliancebernsteinglobalhighincomefundallstateallstate corp allAllstateCorpAllcapital researchcapital research global investorsCapitalResearchCapitalResearchGlobalInvestorsdoug kassdoug nolandDougKassDougNolandfannie maefannie maefreddie macfanniemacFannieMaeFannieMaefreddieMacfeaturedfreddie macFreddieMacgenworthgenworth financialgenworthfinancialhartford insuranceHartfordInsurancelegg masonlegg mason capital managementLeggMasonLeggMasonCapitalManagementwilmingtontrustThu, 21 Aug 2008 10:17:00 EST<![CDATA[Housing: To go long or to go short?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/04/housing-to-go-long-or-to-go-short/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/04/housing-to-go-long-or-to-go-short/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/04/housing-to-go-long-or-to-go-short/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

Bill Miller, the famed Legg Mason fund manager, was on television last week. He said he is long on housing stocks.

In Barron's Up and Down Wall Street column (subscription required), Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners said he was short housing stocks - no big surprise there. Kass referred to order cancellation as the reasoning for his bearishness.

Typically, publicly traded homebuilders have cancellation rates of 15% of orders. However, that number has jumped considerably. Cancellation rates of publicly traded homebuilders:
  • Centex (NYSE: CTX) - 37%
  • DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) - 40%
  • KB Homes (NYSE: KBH) - 53%
  • Lennar (NYSE: LEN) - 31%
  • Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) - 36%
  • Beazer (NYSE: BZH) - 57%
  • Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) - 35%
  • MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC) - 49%
  • Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) - 50%
These numbers (from the Barron's article) are so bad that the worst might be unfolding right now.

TheFly's advice, Miller tends to be too early and Kass is often too negative when the worst is already priced in the stocks. I'd say, start following these stocks again, expecting a bottom in the spring and early summer.

The most recent rally is mostly from an oversold condition. I'd wait for another correction and see where the industry fundamentals stand.

Housing: To go long or to go short? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 04 Jan 2007 10:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>barron'sbarronsbeazerbill millerBillMillerbzhcentexctxdhidoug kassDougKassdr hortonDrHortonhousinghousing marketHousingMarkethovhovnaniankb homeskbhKbHomeslenlennarmdcmdc holdingsMdcHoldingsphmpulte homesPulteHomesspfstandard pacificStandardPacificup and down wall streetUpAndDownWallStreetThu, 04 Jan 2007 10:01:00 EST<![CDATA[Record profits at Goldman ... just in time to go private again?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/12/record-profits-at-goldman-just-in-time-to-go-private-again/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/12/record-profits-at-goldman-just-in-time-to-go-private-again/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/12/record-profits-at-goldman-just-in-time-to-go-private-again/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Earlier today, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) reported that it raked in a whopping $9.34 billion in 2006, a record-high in the history of organized finance. The company plans to pay out $16.5 billion of that to its employees, to the tune of $622,000 per person. Goldman's fiscal fourth quarter saw profits increase 93% year-over-year, to $3.16 billion, or $6.59 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $6.36. (You can read more about the numbers here.)

Goldman's record year could signal similar results from the other investment banks set to announce their earnings over the next two weeks, and the Times article goes on to describe the incredible economic boost these numbers will give downtown Manhattan. Purveyors of high-end goods and services are rubbing their hands for a very merry holiday season.

This news is even more striking when you consider that Doug Kass over at TheStreet.com lists Goldman going private as a possible (if unlikely) surprise for 2007. You have to give credit where credit is due: If Goldman is set to leave us, it sure went out with a bang.

Record profits at Goldman ... just in time to go private again? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Dec 2006 16:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>doug kassDougKassgoing privateGoingPrivategoldman sachsGoldmanSachswinter bonusesWinterBonusesTue, 12 Dec 2006 16:38:00 EST