This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Year-end is almost upon us and I need to get this short list cut down to size with two weeks to go. Because this story is an ongoing process, the heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, with the latest in bold type as the story builds and I examine things more closely. This week I am adding another energy play in the form of a Canadian Trust. Then I follow with the current edited stock list and the stocks to be cut.

Gallery: Chasing Value: 8 for 2008

In seeking value stocks that have seen their share prices greatly diminished this past year based on reduced earnings, I came across Precision Drilling Trust ADR (NYSE: PDS), which has a P/E near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. According to AOL Money & Finance information, the company is Canada's largest drilling contractor, with a fleet of 240 service rigs. Its contract drilling units provide drilling services, equipment supply and repair, and on-site catering and management. PDS has extended its reach into the United States this year and has invested in new technology, replaced older rigs and is preparing for continued expansion. Favorable metrics include a low P/B of 1.57 and high historic profit margins of 40%.

PDS closed yesterday at a price of $15.47 per share, near its 52-week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. For a few more details see: Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield.

Disclosure: I have already bought shares of PDS at $17 in several portfolios.

The following stocks have been put in three groups, considering I want to reduce the number to eight. The first group is highly likely to make the cut based on what I know today. The second group is still under consideration but depends on what the value is in two weeks because of current volatility. The last group is being cut, and I noted why.

Continue reading Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Dec 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Onward with my review of the Dow Jones Industrials. Ten stocks have been reviewed so far with three worth further consideration as potential value plays: Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA), American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). You can link to Part 1 of this series or Part 2 if you want to catch up. Comments are always welcome.

Disney (Walt) Company (NYSE: DIS) on first glance looks like it may have some value hidden away. The raw numbers do not scream out at me but they cannot be ignored either. At a minimum this stock seems to be slightly under valued, given its strong brand and depth of content in a business where content is king, it has locked up many franchises. This includes the Pirates of the Caribbean: At the World's End now in theaters. It has an average P/E, a below average debt ratio, a modest dividend yield to go along with very low P/S 2.18 and P/B 2.36 ratios. Disney is worth consideration as a value stock.

DuPont EI De Nemours (NYSE: DD) is another mixed bag, although mostly favorable from a value standpoint. You have to like the below average P/E of 14.92, P/S of 1.77 and the generous dividend yield of 2.84%. On the other hand, it has a P/B of almost 5, which is higher than I would usually consider for a value play and the same is true for the P/CF of almost 12.29, which is a little bit pricey to me. It does report strong profit margins of 11.48% and a great ROE of 34.41. In comparing it to one of my stock picks Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) for 2007, which has a P/S and P/B of half of DuPont and a higher yield of 3.67% I think I will pass this one up.

Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- DIS, DD, XOM, & GE: Part 3

Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- DIS, DD, XOM, & GE: Part 3 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 May 2007 13:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through April 30, 2007 after many companies have reported their first quarter earnings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJAI) passed the 13,000 watermark and set new record highs. We are still in the midst of earnings season. This is my fourth follow-up report. Not enough time to prove much but plenty of time to make or lose some money. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

This month an interesting trend took hold. Even with the indices reaching new highs and many stocks doing so as well, it seems there must be some caution in the wind. This is the first month that my value approach lead the pack and Cramer's approach, whatever it is, took a back seat. Not only is Cramer lagging each of the indices, but four of his six speculative and growth picks were down while all three of his value picks were up. Google seems to be dead in the water for now, having reported tremendous growth and beating analyst's guestimates again by a wide margin, it still has not gained any traction even in an up market.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth

Chasing down 007 picks: Index beats Cramer - value trumps growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 16:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

So who do you believe about Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW)? What is the truth? Do the people involved in the story even know, or do they each only have a piece of a complex puzzle?

Maybe some have larger pieces than others. Dow Chemical closed Thursday at $46.00 (up 2%). For one thing, I am of the mind that almost everything is in play. Most things do have a price. As a Dow shareholder, I would be upset if the company did not consider a lucrative offer.

I have written about Dow on several occasions and included it as one of my Stock picks for 2007. My very astute colleagues have been following the company as well, including Georges Yared who penned Is Dow Chemical next? discussing the possibility that it might be acquired. But Dow issued a press release as reported by Jonathan Berr that Dow buyout isn't happening, and then yesterday Dow announced the firing of two senior executives, one a board member, energizing Tom Taulli to post Buyout fever run amuck at Dow Chemical, and Peter Cohan wrote Dow Chemical's rogue LBO negotiators which was followed by more commentary by Berr expressing his amazement in Dow buyout saga turns bizarre.

The details of this unusual intrigue, high level firings and all, were laid out by the Wall Street Journal.

I think that Dow could easily be the target of a leveraged buyout. If I did not think the stock was bargain priced then I would not have bought it myself or recommended it to our readers.

I also think asking the company about a specific deal is silly.

Would you discuss a deal before it was done, unless you thought that gave you some advantage, or you were trying to create a bidding situation? If I was selling, I would want to play the role of a reluctant seller to get a premium price.

Continue reading Is Dow Chemical in play or not?

Is Dow Chemical in play or not? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Apr 2007 12:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

All I can say is if you want to improve at something seek out the best advice you can get and try to follow it. If I was studying golf and Tiger Woods was willing to coach me, that would be the best opportunity I could hope for. If I wanted to improve my jump shot and Kobe Bryant had some spare time to work with me, that would be fantastic.

Well, guess what, if you are an investor there is a wealth of information available, and you can learn from the best. The best is Warren Buffett and you should do what he does. That is what I have been trying to do. I have been discussing Buffett in many of my stories and reminding people that he is the master and if you are doing anything else you are missing the point. Sure Smush Parker is also a starting guard for the Los Angeles Lakers, and that is amazing because the odds of being a starting guard in the NBA are astronomically small, but I would rather learn from Kobe.

So you can quote anybody you want and search far and wide for opportunities, but if you consider yourself a shrewd investor and are not studying Buffett you are making a mistake.

Continue reading With Warren Buffett by my side . . .

With Warren Buffett by my side . . . originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Apr 2007 11:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops

Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is an update through February 28, 2007 which has come and gone all too quickly. It is my second follow-up report. Two months is a short time in the market for a buy and hold guy like me, and ages for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:.

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% last month but now after two months is: +2%. Interestingly it is his speculative stocks that are up the most. Best pick so far Level 3 communications.
• The Indexes all reversed from positive territory to slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%.
• Liber return is negative at -1.9% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina which is down 22%. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point. Best pick so far Valero Energy.
• Google provided an +8.1% return in January and has since slipped for a YTD loss: -2.9% Among all considerations Google had the poorest showing in the last month going from first to last.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramers picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Company and The Home Depot.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and two month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top

Chasing down 007 picks: Jan/Feb results - Cramer on top originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Mar 2007 14:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

So January 2007 is already history and this is my first follow-up report. I recognize that from an investment perspective it is almost meaningless to gain any insight into the quality of my stock selections after only one month.

In truth, even a year is an arbitrary length of time to know anything for sure. On one occasion I sold Boeing (NYSE: BA) after holding it about 18 months, shortly before its rise, when its new CEO exercised some ethically and morally 'poor secretarial judgment'. Then I watched the stock double in quick order.

If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• Google provided an 8.1% return heading into reporting season. It has since slipped.
• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% which was very good. There might be some Cramer bump but if there is it will fade and for now he has done great.
• The Indexes were all in positive territory.
• Liber return was slightly negative for January -0.55% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point and believe it will be up this year.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividend yields to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins

Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Here's a note I wrote to my editors today:

Day ONE results: DOW up .09%, NASDAQ up .33%, S&P down -.12%

LIBER (007) SEVEN UP 3.76% (even with oil down)

You should start an office pool for lunch money - going to be HUGE year!

Sheldon

So here's what you'd need if you'd want to start your own office pool:

The closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended:

1. The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02
2. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02
3. The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73
4. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36.00
5. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12
6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00
7. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $51.61

NOTE: Duke spun-off Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) today.

The comparisons:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52
• NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57
• Standard & Poors 500 INdex: 1,424.73

And of course, I will report back each month with the closing stock price as of the 28th of each month. If I am wrong, it will be very public. Although I did not recommend jumping in each of these stocks at these prices immediately, I will use them for tracking purposes, come what may.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, TWX, and VLO (bought 12/29/06) and will likely own DOW, and HD.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

'LIBER 007' beat market on day one -- HUGE year coming up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday I put my reputation on the line by recommending seven stocks that I think will outperform the market in 2007, You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!. In the past few years I have made some great calls and doubled, sometimes even tripled the market averages, helped along by stocks like PetroChina, (NYSE: PTR) acquired for $44 and closing yesterday $142.12; Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) acquired at $7.70 and closing yesterday at $96.73; Merck (NYSE: MRK) acquired at $32.00 rising to $43.55, and Time Warner Inc. acquired at $12.10 and settling in last night at $22.00. There were many others.

This all followed the same disastrous 2001 collapse that most investors suffered. I wish I would have listened to James Cramer when he told me in a personal email that telecom stocks were going down hard. Like any of us, he is not always right -- but he was way right about that!

It has been said, and is worth repeating,"experience is what you get when you were expecting something else." We all got way too much experience in 2001. Since that time I have recovered all of my losses and then some, but it took a lot of work, a lot of study, and certainly some luck. Let's just say I'm older and wiser.

In making yesterday's recommendations I tried to stay away from get rich quick notions and chose stocks that I believe have strong upside potential with protection against downside risk. All seven of my 2007 picks are well known companies to most stock market investors. They are all companies that I feel are buy and hold propositions.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended:

1. The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02
2. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02
3. The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73
4. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36.00
5. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12
6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00
7. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $51.61

I will report back each month with the closing stock price as of the 28th of each month. If I am wrong it will be very public. Although I did not recommend jumping in each of these stocks at these prices immediately, I will use them for tracking purposes, come what may.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, TWX and will likely own DOW, HD, and VLO prior to next months report.

Happy New Year!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Lets discuss your picks for 2007

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Following 007 takes courage - but here goes! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Dec 2006 15:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

They are hiding under newspapers and in the newspapers. They are lurking in back alleys and under the stairs, under the sink and on the shelves in the garage. Some are in far-away lands and can easily slip by undetected by the average investor. Some are so obvious you do not give them a second thought. Sometimes they are screaming at you from the radio and television but you tune them out.

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Well, just follow me, and I will bring a brighter light to illuminate my picks for 2007 and beyond. Listed here in alphabetical order are my seven for 2007, with links to longer, deeper analyses:

Disclosure: I own shares in DUK, HNP, PTR, and TWX. I do not own DOW, HD, or VLO as of this writing, but I am considering them all right now, as you may be.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): Dow has been trending downward for over two years from its high of $56 per share. Last night it closed at $40.14 -- roughly the same share price as three years ago.Its 52-week low was $33, which I do not believe we will see again, but anywhere between $33 and $40 should be a steal. Consider adding DOW to your watch list and buying it at an even greater discount. I think the company will pay handsomely now and in the long-term.

Continue reading You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Dec 2006 17:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.