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Dow down 400 -- don't worry, you can be aggressive or defensive!

If you look at a 400+ point drop, it's usually scary. But longer-term investors get to make their picks and entry points on such days. We would look at the CBOE Volatility Index for an inference today and here is a full article from earlier with more details and exact reference to past VIX levels if you like to delve into the minutia that technical traders look into. The DJIA is now down over 400 points, and very few can accurately pick a bottom or a top. Calling for any exact level for a bottom or top is something that very few can do with success. It's finding your comfort zone and trying to get in a trend that is usually what is the most rewarding for investors.

Remember, there is always the "GO DEFENSIVE STRATEGY" in stock buying. If you will recall, we gave a list of many defensive stocks and even hit a list of second-line defensive stocks for a crummy market. If you want to be an aggressive buyer of individual stocks and say, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!" then you can probably always go back to Cramer's New Four Horsemen of Tech or can even go look at his top 9 picks for 2007.

Of the 30 DJIA components, six were in positive territory this morning. As of now, Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is the only one in positive territory. When was the last time you saw Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) down over 6% in a day? Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares are down roughly 3% today, but has the outlook for PCs and software really changed in the last week or so? With shares of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) down almost 4%, you'd think the market is worried that they have subprime woes or super risky derivatives posing risk. Along with other financials Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares are down big with more than a 4% drop. Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is down over 6.5% to a new year low, although it isn't a DJIA component.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Market tanks: Oil, housing, and credit crunch to blame

Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down over 360 points. In my view, that's because many of the bad things that investors have been worrying about for years are all happening at the same time:

  • Spiking oil prices -- a barrel of crude oil was up $1.12 at $77.
  • Tanking housing market. Disappointing results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) -- squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans -- weighed heavily on the market.
  • Drying up of private equity financing -- as I posted earlier today.

Over the last few weeks, these worries have been masked by an onslaught of big mergers. But the mergers aren't happening today. Moreover, if the credit markets decide to turn their back on future deals, the only thing to stop the market from freefalling would be big companies exceeding earnings expectations.

What should you do? Probably nothing if you're in it for the long term, eventually all the bad news will come out and there will be a buying opportunity. But not yet.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+85.6712,886.90
NASDAQ+29.192,933.07
S&P 500+9.831,352.47

Last updated: February 13, 2012: 03:07 PM

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