Alcoa (AA) is an industrial icon in America, but manufacturing hasn't been so hot lately. The result has been four straight quarterly losses for this metals company.

And guess what? Fourth-quarter earnings are just around the corner for this company on January 11, and a number of analysts are expecting yet another shortfall. Not a good sign.

Next: Dog of the Dow #2: AT&T (T)

"What can get this market going again?" asks Chuck Carlson. In The DRIP Investor he says, "It's helpful to understand what stocks within the Dow need to do well for the index to do well."

"Not surprisingly, IBM (NYSE: IBM), the highest-priced stock in the Dow, carries the greatest weighting at more than 9% of the index. Obviously, with such a heavy weighting in the index, IBM will need to be a decent performer for the Dow to do well going forward.

"And when you total up the exposure of IBM with the other tech stocks in the Dow - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) - the total tech weighting in the Dow is 16%. Thus, tech stocks matter to the Dow, so it is diffcult to see the Dow sustaining a move upward without a nice rebound in the tech sector.

In its mid-year forecast, Dow Theory Forecasts -- which has been published for 5 decades -- features its top current picks, including IBM (NYSE: IBM), which earns its top designation as a "Focus List Buy."

Editor Richard Moroney explains, "IBM has repeatedly forecast its goal of per-share earnings of $10 to $11 in 2010. The company is well on its way to achieving that goal. Software, in particular, is key to IBM's earnings target.

"The company completed its acquisition of Telelogic in April, three months after purchasing Cognos. IBM expects acquisitions to contribute 3% of its goal of 7% to 10% growth in software sales.

"From 2002 to 2007, mainframe sales averaged 6% growth, but sales fell in three of those years, including 2007. The March quarter showed no improvement, as sales in the division fell 7%. But, with energy prices up, IBM sees an opportunity with its new, energy-efficient Z-series mainframe.

"Server sales have been spotty, but IBM's sales force translates server revenue into two to three times as much in software and systems revenue. IBM, with the potential to reach $155 to $165 over the next 12 months, is a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.