The markets were higher before the economic data came to ruin the party. CPI came in higher than PPI on the inflation front, but there was a real disappointment in housing starts considering that many were expecting gains there. Oil inventory contractions across the board failed to boost that market considerably. A late day rally looked like a positive close was in the cards, but the buying action was only so much.

Here were today's closing levels:

Dow 10,426.31 -11.11 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,109.79 -0.53 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,193.14 -10.64 (-0.48%)

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Transportation company DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) started the session on a positive note this morning after announcing a new waiver agreement with Deutsche Bank.

DRYS, which is struggling under the weight of a hefty debt burden, said it has reached a pact with Deutsche Bank regarding the waiver terms for a credit facility worth $1.125 billion. The facility covers two drillships that are currently under construction.

"We are delivering the waivers as promised and we hope to conclude discussions with the rest of the lenders in the near future," stated CEO George Economou.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Accenture Ltd. (NYSE: ACN) said revenues and bookings both declined in the most recent quarter.
• Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) reported strong Q4 results in the wake of Circuit City's demise.
• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) sailed past analysts' Q1 projections, sending shares higher.
• ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) Q3 results topped analysts expectations and drove shares higher.
• DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) swung to a larger-than-expected Q4 loss and revenue slipped.
• DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) reported a bigger-than-expected Q4 loss as same-store sales declined.

Athens-based shipping issue DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) announced Monday that it will release its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2008 earnings results after the close of trading in New York today, March 24. Ahead of the report, buy-to-open call volume has been consistently heavy on the beaten-down stock.

During the past five days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 30,875 calls on DRYS, compared to jut 9,697 puts. In other words, bullish bets have been three times more popular than their bearish counterparts.

During the bull market in commodities that peaked midway through 2008, shipping companies that transfer base commodities across the oceans enjoyed phenomenal runs to all-time highs before fizzling out like a Roman candle.

Companies that carry wheat, corn, soybeans, fertilizer, cement, iron ore pellets and sugar were printing money as the day rates for shipping dry commodities soared.

The rate charged by dry bulk shipping companies to buyers of commodities abroad, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), began 2008 at roughly $5,800 per day. The rate topped out at $11,700 midyear, and bottomed out in early December at $675 -- a 94% correction. Absolutely unbelievable!

Shares of the most widely traded stock within the dry bulk shipping sector, DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), traded as high as $116 in May, reflecting the fullness of the commodity rally that seemed to be irreversible based on the glowing projections of China, India, central Europe and what are now known as "Frontier Economies," like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Following that meteoric rise in shares of DRYS to $116, the stock proceeded to careen all the way down to $3 in November.

For most investors and traders, 2008 was a tough year. But while many people saw their portfolio take a merciless beating and watched their retirement vanish into thin air, there were a select few who made a killing.

In fact, if you had been on the right side of any of these bets, you could have banked enough dough to make up for your losses and then some.

Here are five trades everyone wishes they had made in 2008:

#1 Shorting 'Chindia' the day after New Year's: The Chindia experience peaked in Beijing with Michael Phelps, and the market knew it would a year and a day before the Closing Ceremonies.

#2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond: This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.

#3 Shorting oil on the Fourth of July: The drop in oil prices has been nothing short of unbelievable. Those that had the fortitude to short crude in early July (and had the stones to stay with that trade) made a killing.

#4 Buying DryShips (DRYS) at the November low: Following its meteoric rise to $116, the stock careened all the way down to $3. But if you went long then, you saw the share price quadruple in less than a month.

#5 Shorting 'too big to fail' Fannie and Freddie: This shorting strategy defied all odds and pretty much defined the year for the stock market.

They say that the higher you climb, the harder you fall. Well that has certainly been the story of freight carrier DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS).

A glance at the stock's two-year chart is likely to cause more than just nausea.

In 2007, shares of DRYS rallied hard on the heels of the global growth story. Chinks in the armor began to appear in the fall of that year, and DRYS sold off some of its gains. By the end of that year, shares had lost 20% of their value from the peak.

The world economy was tied tighter to the U.S. economy than most believed. Even worse, the large amount of hedge fund money in the stock ultimately resulted in the stock's demise.

And what a demise it has been.

Shares of DRYS collapsed this year amid a slowing economy and the credit crisis. Prices for bulk goods fell like a rock at a time when new ships meant more capacity.

It was a recipe for disaster, but what about now? Is DRYS a bargain trading for less than $5 per share?

On Monday, with the news of a massive stimulus plan being advocated by the President-elect, DRYS turned on a dime. Following through yesterday, the stock is up some 30%.

Editor's Note: This post was written by Fil Zucchi, one of Minyanville's many sharp minds.

Drybulk shippers have been slammed over the last few days courtesy of a plunge in capesize spot rates. However, according to the sharp eyes at Dahlman Rose, the volume of new spot fixtures has been exceedingly low of late. And taking a slightly longer perspective, spot rates are up more than 100% since last year.

A few things to keep in mind:

• Not all shippers are created equal: Dryships NASDAQ:DRYS) plays in almost strictly in the spot market and therefore it stands to reason that it should swing hard with spot rates. After closing the purchase of Quintana Marine, Excel Maritime (NYSE:EXM) now has a decent balance of long term and short term fixtures contracts. And then you have an outfit like Paragon Shipping (NASDAQ:PRGN) with most of its fleet leased out on long term - fixed price contracts.
  
  
• Despite the vast differences in the business models of these three companies, the market has not been very discerning in how it has treated its stocks, which suggests that there may be some arbitrage opportunity, should one wish to play it that way.
  
  
• Despite growing economic risks in China, it's tough to envision a collapse of infrastructure build-outs, or a sudden change in food needs in the BRIC countries and around the world in general. As long as these two activities hold up, it's tough to see a collpase in the shipping business;
  
  
• I can't stress enough that my long side interest in EXM and PRGN is heavily influenced by some sizable, and so far not so succesful, shorts in broad commodity ETF's.
  
  
• And lastly, the volatility in the shippers offers some very attractive options selling opportunities.
  
  (Positions in EXM, PRGN)

If prices were not high enough, the earthquake in the Sichuan region of China has pushed speculation that dry-bulk shipping prices are going to continue to rise. Dryships (NASDAQ:DRYS) may be poised to take advantage of this.

There is additional speculation that the massive consumption of China will increase, as there is now a rebuilding process along with the daily requirements that has the dryshipper's move higher. It is a simple equation. China needs materials and they will either find those in their soil or get it from somewhere else. When it is imported, the most cost efficient way to transport the material is shipping lines. In addition, China has a voracious appetite for coal and iron in order to make steel.

South America is now back on line to begin exporting iron, as is Australia. Both will be exporting coal to China, supplemented by South Africa. Put this all together, and the investors are seeing no end to the shipments to emerging China. So, the high demand for commodities, mainly coal, grain, metals, and fuels are causing the dry shipping rates to soar. That, in turn, creates a nice bottom line.

If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.

Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.

The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.

Monday, May 19

The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.

Peter Way selects his buys by following the trading activity of block traders -- those making large, million dollar bets. Here's the latest from his Block Trader Oil & Gold Monitor.

"The volume stock market liquidity-providers are hedging their necessary position risks in ways that foretell declining oil stock prices. Their records on such outlooks in the past are pretty good, so pay attention.

"The million-dollar market-makers are not always right, and here they tend to be a bit early, but it's obvious they can save you some grief and provide a chance to pick up some meaningful extra profit.

"From our recent review of energy ETFs, we also note that the pros' perception seems to be that energy stocks have been bid up too far. Ok, so what to do? Sell the oil holdings? Then where to put the proceeds?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Third Wave, DryShips and Hil-Rom Holdings were among today's noteworthy initiations:

• Third Wave (NASDAQ: TWTI) was initiated with a Buy, target $12 at Deutsche which said the company is compelling small-cap opportunity in molecular diagnostics with an $1B-plus opportunity in the HPV market.
  
• DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS) was initiated with an Outperform, target $110 at Credit Suisse, which is positive on the company's growth opportunity and is bullish on dry bulk rates into 2009.
  
• Hil-Rom Holdings (NYSE: HRC) was initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer which believes 2H08 will be an inflection point for Hill-Rom, with revenue, margin expansion, and earnings growth all beginning to accelerate. The firm believes that the company's performance will improve due to its efforts to complete spending on R&D, reinvigorate its brand, and find low-cost sourcing and manufacturing alternatives.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Imperial Tobacco (NYSE: ITY) coverage was resumed with a Buy at Merrill Lynch.
  
• ICU Medical (NASDAQ: ICUI) was initiated with a Buy, target $35 at Jesup & Lamont, which is positive on the company's valuation, strong balance sheet, growth in oncology and expectations for gross margin improvement.

DryShips Inc. (NYSE: DRYS) released a pretty embarrassing press release yesterday, announcing that it was canceling its planned stock split in light of the fact that its stock had tanked:

Although the Company previously announced its intention to effect a 3:1 stock split in the form of a share dividend following today's special meeting, the board of directors has determined that in light of recent developments in the trading price of the Company's common stock, it is in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders to defer the proposed stock split until a more favorable time in order to preserve shareholder value.

Right. I, along with Warren Buffett, have never been a big fan of stock splits, mainly because they don't really have any point or serve any purpose -- unless a stock is so expensive that most people can't afford a single share. But in the case of DryShips, the highest its stock has traded this year is $131.34.

Here's my philosophy when it comes to stock splits: anytime a company's management/board is so pleased with itself that it can't think of anything better to do than slice the pie in different shapes... find a less complacent management team at a different company.

As the globalization era progresses, transportation is at a premium. Young, growing economies in Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe are placing enormous demands on their infrastructures, even as they expand them.

Further, the growth in intercontinental trade has meant that shipping vessels also are in short supply, and among shipping companies, Dryships (NASDAQ: DRYS) is worth an evaluation.

Dryships ships commodities, grains, bauxite, fertilizers and steel products in its fleet of 35 vessels.

In general, analysts like Dryships' mix of spot charter market revenue and long-term contracts, in addition to the company's adequate performance regarding cost controls.

In the current international trade environment, that would be enough to recommend the shares, but the major positive is the vessel market. Shipping space is at a premium, and shippers like Dryships have considerable pricing power as a result. Hence, analysts see large EPS gains for the company, among other shippers in the sector. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for DRYS are $4.25/$8.62.

Very interesting piece from the Financial Times today regarding dry shipping rates in the Far East -- the article's premise is based on an interview with Nobu Su, chief executive of family-owned Taiwan Maritime Transport (TMT), one of the largest dry bulk shippers globally. Salient quote from the interview: when asked about day rates, or the rates shippers charge clients to charter out their ships, rising 300% this year, CEO Su called the rates "insane."

Su's main concern was that with inflated day rates, customers using dry shippers, mainly mining companies, would be forced to pass on the costs to their customers -- ultimately, you and me.

"We believe it's unsustainable and shipping people forget about their own business, which is providing shipping services," Su said of the market conditions, where owners of the largest ships, can command about $180,000 a day in charter rates. "TMT has been in the shipping business for 50 years. We continue to do the basic business."

Investors have certainly profited from this trend. If you had owned DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS) this year, you would have 400% more than what you started with at the beginning of 2007. According to Reuters, the company's fleet consists of five Capesize drybulk carriers, 29 Panamax drybulk carriers, and one Handymax drybulk carrier.