Much of the U.S. was buried in ice-cold weather. Jobless claims improved to levels better than expected, earnings kept coming out, and inflation is slightly higher, as the FOMC wants to see. Ben Bernanke said that things are progressing as expected in quantitative easing and did not exactly signal another round of QE3. Strong retail sales may have carried the day.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment data:

Dow Jones: 12,062.26 +20.29 (0.17%)
S&P 500: 1,307.10 +3.07 (0.24%)
Nasdaq: 2,753.88 +4.32 (0.16%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

Friday's fourth-quarter GDP numbers offered more evidence that the economy is picking up steam, but one of the biggest obstacles to the recovery remains the stubbornly high unemployment rate. We'll find out whether there's been any movement on that front when employment data for January comes out this week. The Challenger Job-Cut report and ADP employment data are due Wednesday, and the government's unemployment rate on Friday. Another mild increase in jobs is expected, in line with the three-month average, but not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.

Also look for the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes this week, as well as the Chicago PMI and the New York NAPM index. And Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the National Press Club on Thursday.

Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Thoratec (THOR) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• TW Telecom (TWTC) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• TAL Education (XRS) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Amedisys (AMED) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst Downgrades

• Navigators (NAVG) to neutral from outperform at Macquarie.
• El Paso Electric (EE) to hold from buy at Jefferies.
• Hancock Holding (HBHC) to hold from buy at Wunderlich.
• California Water Service (CWT) and American States Water (AWR) to neutral from buy at Janney Capital.
• Mednax (MD) to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst Upgrades

• Qualcomm (QCOM) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• JPMorgan upgraded Allegheny Tech (ATI) to overweight from neutral.
• NetApp (NTAP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Estee Lauder (EL) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Citigroup upgraded Suntech (STP) to hold from sell.

Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Wells Fargo upgraded MetroPCS (PCS), Coventry Health (CVH) and Scientific Games (SGMS) to outperform from market perform.
• Estee Lauder (EL) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Simon Property (SPG) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Citigroup upgraded BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) to buy from hold.

Analyst Upgrades

• Macquarie upgraded Intel (INTC) to outperform from neutral and Advanced Micro (AMD) to neutral from underperform.
• Pfizer (PFE) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Capstead Mortgage (CMO) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Halliburton (HAL) to outperform from perform.
• Gilead (GILD) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Citigroup upgraded CapitalSource (CSE) to buy from hold.

Estee Lauder (EL) reported fiscal Q4 earnings on Thursday. They unfortunately didn't meet the market's expectations. Today, the shares are under a bit of selling pressure. But is the dip an opportunity?

According to the AP, the year-over-year profit growth wasn't so bad. On an adjusted basis, the beauty business made 29 cents per share in the recently completed quarter versus booking 20 cents per share in the previous year's similar period. Sounds fine, of course, but there is the analyst game to consider. On that front, the company lost. The call was set at 30 cents per share. For the want of a penny, my friends.

Today's weakness was a carryover from yesterday's weakness after triple-digit DJIA losses. When you added in a another rise in weekly jobless claims, that kept the bulls from every getting a chance to have much of a vote for the broad markets.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,319.95 -58.88 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,083.60 -5.87 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,190.27 -18.36 (-0.83%)

Analyst Upgrades

• Berstein upgraded Diamond Offshore (DO) to market perform from underperform based on valuation. The firm has a $69 price target on the stock.
• Jefferies upgraded Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) to buy from hold, citing leverage to higher land rig pricing. The firm raised its price target to $21 from $17.
• Wunderlich upgraded Renasant (RNST) to buy from hold following the company's acquisition of Crescent Bank. The firm raised its target for shares to $20 from $15.
• AT&T (T) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Blackstone (BX) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Scripps Networks (SNI) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue, sending shares higher.
• Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) reported better-than-expected Q3 numbers, sending shares higher.
• Bare Escentuals Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE) Q3 profit easily topped analysts' estimates, and shares surged.
• Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: COG) received an upgrade following the release of its Q3 numbers.
• Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) reported strong Q1 results, sending shares higher.
• E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) reported a smaller-than-expected net loss for Q3.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) Q3 earnings topped estimates and revenue was up sequentially.

Stocks suffered a scary drop on Friday. It was fitting, in a sense, since it was the day before Halloween. In fact, as this Closing Bell piece noted, there were more tricks than treats to be had on Wall Street.

There are always equities bucking the trend, however. The Estee Lauder Companies (NYSE: EL) was one of them. Bullish buyers loved the beauty company's fiscal Q1 earnings release. As has been the case with many reports, the top line wasn't the fun part of the document: Estee Lauder saw a decrease of 2.7% for adjusted revenues. Here's the item of interest: net income after charges was 85 cents per share, more than three times what was made in the comparable frame.

Analyst upgrades:

• American Express (NYSE:AXP) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital, as the firm sees limited near-term downside in the stock. The firm raised its target price on the shares to $37 from $25.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) to Outperform from Sector Perform. Target to $44 from $34. UBS upgraded Nestle on expectations the company will begin returning cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
  
• Piper Jaffray raised Dicks Sporting (NYSE:DKS) to Neutral from Underweight following positive channel checks and raised its target on the shares to $28 from $18.
  
• Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Pali Capital.
  
• Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) was raised to Buy from Hold by Natixis.
  
• Sunpower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie.
• China Automotive (NASDAQ:CAAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman.

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) closed at $37.64. EL is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on August 13. EL August 35 straddle is priced at $3.50, September 35 straddle is at $4.50. EL September option implied volatility of 44 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement after EPS.

Patterson Companies (NASDAQ: PDCO) closed at $25.46. PDCO, a distributor of dental and veterinarian products, is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on August 20. August option implied volatility is at 53, September is at 37; verses its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement after EPS.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst Upgrades

• Baird upgraded Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Outperform from Neutral based on field research that indicates improving traffic trends and visibility from cost savings initiatives.
• FBR Capital upgraded E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) to Outperform from Underperform citing an attractive risk/reward following the company's capital raise and debt exchange commencement. The firm believes the worst is behind the company and has a $2 target on the stock.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Sonic (NASDAQ: SONC) to Outperform from Perform on expectations demand trends will improve, leading to more normalized profitability.
• Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.