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Closing Bell: Late day rally on financials over oil

Oil was down another $5.00 per barrel today, yet that failed to cause a major rally despite a $9.00 in just two days. Today's end of day rally was led by financials after an FDIC conference which led to excitement about the sector. If you were looking for any brightness in home sales, May's pending home sales came in at -4.7% year over year. We also saw wholesale inventories in May rise by +0.8%. Perhaps more interesting is that the MAY Consumer Credit rose more than expected to $7.8 Billion. Below are the unofficial closing bell levels for today:
DJIA 11,384.21 (+152.25)
S&P500 1,273.68 (+21.37)
NASDAQ 2,294.42 (+51.10)
10YR T-Note 3.88% (-0.05%)
52-WEEK LOWS
TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS

Hank Paulson's speech gave some support after his speech didn't ring of the "Death of GSE's" and shares of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were up over 10% at $17.40 in today's final minutes.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Late day rally on financials over oil

Analyst initiations: CALP, NTAP, EMC, CNQR and TTGT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Caliper Life Sciences, Network Appliance, EMC Corp, Concur Tech and TechTarget were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Caliper Life Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: CALP) was initiated at Piper Jaffray with an Outperform rating and $8 target. Piper believes the company's collection of acquisitions offers a diverse portfolio targeting a $1.2B segment of the life science tools market.
  • Credit Suisse resumed coverage of Network Appliance Inc (NASDAQ: NTAP) and EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) with Neutral ratings and a $28 target and $20 target, respectively, as they have concerns of near-term demand risk.
  • Concur Technologies (NASDAQ: CNQR) was started at Jefferies with a Buy rating and $40 target, as they believe the company is changing the landscape of employee expense management by integrating travel and expense reimbursement and feels shares deserve a premium valuation.
  • Oppenheimer sees limited upside from current levels at TechTarget Inc (NASDAQ: TTGT) and would consider an entry point in the low-to-mid teens. The firm started shares with a Neutral rating and $17 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst initiations: EMC, NILE, GYI and SONS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp, Blue Nile, Getty Images and Sonus Networks were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $24 target at Banc of America as they believe the company's core business is undervalued and should benefit from penetration of new market segments. Deutsche Bank views shares of the stock as fully valued at current levels, starting shares off with a Hold rating and $20 target. Jefferies believes the divergence in valuation of core EMC and majority-held VMWare Inc (NYSE: VMW) creates an attractive entry point. The firm started EMC shares with a Buy rating and $25 target.
  • CIBC finds shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) fairly valued and sees challenges as competition increases. The firm started shares with a Sector Performer rating.
  • CIBC also initiated shares of Getty Images Inc (NYSE: GYI) with a Sector Performer rating, as the firm believes the company's earnings visibility is limited while the business model is in transition.
  • Coverage of Sonus Networks Inc (NASDAQ: SONS) was resumed with an Overweight rating and $8 target at Thomas Weisel. Their checks indicate the company is experiencing increased order activity in 2H07, and they expect an improved Q3 followed by a very strong Q4.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

VMware (VMW) IPO may start a tech take off

VMware Inc (NYSE: VMW), the server virtualization software company that EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) is selling a chuck of to the public, received a welcome reception from the investment community last night.

The tech offering was priced at $29, at the upper end of its price range of $27 to $29 -- which was raised from an initial price range of $23 to $25. The offering was oversubscribed by 25 times, according to news reports.

Technology-land has been without a catalyst for a while. Often tech bull markets start off with a successful IPO that piques investors' interest. Since private equity will not be driving stocks prices higher, look for IPOs, share buybacks and big dividend increases to continue to drive stock prices higher.

Twenty-five times oversubscribed suggests investors are beginning to get hungry for tech again. This has not happened in the sector in a quite a long time.

EMC Corp. (EMC) surges ahead of VMware IPO

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) opened at $18.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.30 and a high of $18.92. As of 10:40, EMC is trading at $18.78, up $1.06 (6.1%).

EMC subsidiary VMware is scheduled to make its debut on the NYSE tomorrow in an IPO that analysts are predicting to be a smash hit. EMC will retain 90% of the shares, meaning its value could get a lift if VMware makes a splash on the exchanges. Technical indicators for EMC are bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk and leverage returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.1% return in less than three months as long as EMC is above $15 at October expiration. EMC would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

EMC hasn't been below $15 since April and has shown support around $17.40 recently. This trade could be risky if the proposed bullish tech cycle never materializes or if the IPO fizzles, but this stock is one that has been basically immune to the market jitters over the past month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in EMC.

EMC software gets Readers' Choice award

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) opened at $17.46. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.46 and a high of $17.70. As of 10:40, EMC is trading at $17.53, up $0.18 (1.0%).

The stock has been on a steady climb over the past four months, hitting a new 52-week high today. EMC subsidiary VMWare announced this morning that VMware Workstation has won the 2007 Visual Studio Magazine Readers' Choice Award in the Development Tools category. Recent technical indicators for EMC have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a 3 STARS (out of 5) neutral rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $16 range. EMC has been below $16 as recently as May but has shown support around $16.50 recently. This trade could be risky if EMC breaks to the downside out of its slow and steady uptrend, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock found just under $16 when it bounced back in April.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls a position in EMC.

EMC breaks above resistance

EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) opened at $16.13. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.05 and a high of $16.85. As of 12:10, EMC is trading at $16.32, up $0.27 (1.7%).

EMC stumbled in after hours trading last night after competitor Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) cut its forecast for the next quarter, but a closer look at NTAP's earnings shows positive signs for EMC; profits were up for the company and EPS were in line with expectations. Now that EMC has broken resistance at $16, the stock is charging up the chart. Recent technical indicators for EMC have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $14 range. EMC hasn't been below $14 since March and has shown support around $15.40 recently. This trade could be risky if the technology sector weakens over the second half of this year, but even if that happens, EMC would have to fall by more than 15% before this position would be in trouble.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls a position in EMC or NTAP.

Analyst upgrades 3-23-07: EMC Corp, Urban Outfitters & ImClone upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp (EMC), Network Appliance, Inc (NTAP), ImClone Systems Inc (IMCL) and International Game Technology (IGT) were some of today's more notable upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Neutral as the firm believes improved momentum in the second-half of 2007 will drive shares higher.
  • Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) was also upgraded by JP Morgan, to Overweight from Neutral, as the firm believes storage will experience improving secular trends this year.
  • Citigroup upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Hold from Sell and raised their target to $40 from $26 due to lower competitive threats from Amgen Inc's (AMGN) Vectibix.
  • Prudential raised International Game Technology's (NYSE: IGT) rating to Neutral from Underweight, citing valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NYSE: : DWA) to Buy from Neutral with a $36 target and added DWA to their Americas Investment Buy List. Goldman believes the company's new films should drive a higher valuation.
  • Wachovia upgraded Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) to Outperform from Market Perform after a meeting with management as they believe a turnaround is well in progress.
  • Wachovia upgraded Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE: NOC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
  • AG Edwards upgraded Western Union Co (NYSE: WU) to Buy from Hold with a $36 target.
  • Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

A sign of life at EMC

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC), the data storage company, has been in a very tight trading range for years. Five years after many of the large tech poster-child stocks bottomed, EMC has had a tough time sustaining a rally.

However, according to Barron's Technology Trader column (subscription required), EMC might be a beneficiary of virtualization, software applications which allow users to more cost effectively utilize their hardware. EMC's VMware is a leader in this space and is expected to show a 60% revenue gain this year, according to Sanford Bernstein.

A big driver for virtualization is the move to data centers. Companies can outsource many functions to data centers which specialize in virtualizing services.

EMC has been dead money for a while. This quarter's results should provide some insight into how VMware business is performing. If this business continues to take hold, this stock should attract investor interest again. And as if to prove the point, UBS today upgraded EMC to Buy from Neutral.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:20 PM

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