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With BP's Problems, Who Enters the Void?

BP's (BP) headache continues over its planned share swap with Russian-owned Rosneft. According to a report from Sky News, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) announced its concerns over the impact of the swap. ABI reportedly controls 10% to 15% of the U.K. stock market.

ABI's reservations also include a Swedish court's decision to block BP's planned venture with Rosneft in the Arctic. Perhaps most concerning of all -- and not just to ABI -- is Wednesday's report announcing that U.S. prosecutors are considering manslaughter charges against BP for its Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Eleven oil workers were killed as a result of the spill.

Continue reading With BP's Problems, Who Enters the Void?

Anadarko's Acquisition of BP's Wattenberg Adds to Gas Assets

Recently Anadarko (APC) has agreed to buy BP's 93% interest in the Wattenberg Plant, located in the northeastern part of Colorado, for about $575 million. Anadarko already owns the remaining interest in the plant.

Anadarko is the largest producer of natural gas in the Wattenberg field and the deal will provide Anadarko with 100% ownership of the plant. The company relies heavily on natural gas, which we estimate accounts for nearly 40% of its stock value. It vies for business with established oil and gas producers like Exxon Mobil, (XOM) ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), BP (BP) and Duke (DUK).

Continue reading Anadarko's Acquisition of BP's Wattenberg Adds to Gas Assets

High Oil Prices to Support Conoco Shares Despite Japan's Woes

ConocoPhillips (COP) logoConocoPhillips (COP) is likely to gain in the short-term from political tensions in Libya and other Middle Eastern regions due to a rise in crude oil prices globally. However the recent news in Japan following fears of a nuclear crisis gives us some concern. ConocoPhillips and competitors like Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), BP (BP) and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) and Chevron Corporation (CVX) are sensitive to changes in oil prices.

While we expect ConocoPhillips's price of crude oil and LNGs (per barrel) will increase to around $83 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, Trefis members forecast the price rising to $102, implying an upside of 5% to our price estimate for COP stock.

Continue reading High Oil Prices to Support Conoco Shares Despite Japan's Woes

Marathon Oil Vaults Higher

Institutional investors (IIs) have made up for lost time with Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), first discussed here on April 20, 2009, at a price of $28.55. The shares have surged higher this winter, rising from about $35 to about $49.

Hence, it goes without saying that now would be a good time to consider taking some profits off the table with MRO, if you're in at/near $28.55.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position with MRO and go for an even bigger gain.

Continue reading Marathon Oil Vaults Higher

If Correction Continues, Load Up on Commodities

Tuesday was another down day for the stock market, with the Dow losing almost 180 points and the S&P falling nearly 20. Right now, this appears like a much needed and long overdue correction. No need to panic. In fact, if the U.S. economy continues to improve, the next few days could present great buying opportunities in the commodity markets.

This is because the Federal Reserve is determined to make sure that the world is awash in liquidity going forward. The sheer scope and size of these liquidity injections have an awful lot of investors concerned about the long-term stability of fiat currencies, as well as a number of sovereign bond markets. As this uncertainty continues to manifest itself, hard assets may see more substantial price increases.

Continue reading If Correction Continues, Load Up on Commodities

Bernanke Says He Does Not Want to Create Inflation

BernankeReuters quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as saying: "We're not in the business of trying to create inflation. Our purpose is to provide additional stimulus to help the economy recover and to avoid potentially additional disinflation, which I think we'll all agree could also be worrisome."

Bernanke claims that inflation is below the Fed's 2% target. That's hogwash! Sure if you use the "core" CPI, which leaves out food and energy, that may be the case. Not to worry.

Continue reading Bernanke Says He Does Not Want to Create Inflation

Oil Rallies to $83, and Most Investors Cringe

Investors whose stock and related plays hinge on the price of commodities would be wise to pay close attention to one, key commodity, oil, which popped up $1.52 Monday to $82.95 per barrel.

Investors should also note the primary factor analysts' cited in oil's rise: word of better-than-expected manufacturing sector growth in October in China.

Further, the above refrain is something U.S. investors should get used to: stronger growth in emerging markets abroad, higher commodity costs here.

Continue reading Oil Rallies to $83, and Most Investors Cringe

NextEra Energy: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table?

The shares of Utility NextEra Energy (NEE), formerly called FPL Group and first discussed here at a price of $43.30 on March 3, 2009, have moved smartly higher, including a push through $50 resistance, and now may be a good time to consider taking some profits off the table.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can consider holding a full position to go for an even larger gain.

Look for NextEra's earnings to increase about 10% in FY2010, on a likely above-average revenue growth rate. The company changed its name in May to better reflect the company's clean energy provider status.

Continue reading NextEra Energy: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table?

Producer Prices Rose in August

The Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 0.4% in August, more than the 0.3% analysts expected, the New York Times reported. This was also double the July figure of 0.2%. But when food and energy prices were removed, the core index rose only 0.1%, meaning inflation was in food and energy.

With these numbers, the government no doubt will loudly proclaim that inflation is not a problem. If you multiply 0.3% by 12 (the difference between the overall index and the core index), you get 3.6% -- all of it in food and energy.

Continue reading Producer Prices Rose in August

Fluor: Should One Ride Out the Rough Patch?

The shares of Fluor Corporation (FLR), a leading international design, engineering, and contracting firm that was first discussed here on February 17, 2009, at a price of $39.21, have pulled-back, due to the Dow's recent retreat and U.S. work stoppages in the oil/natural gas sector.

Further, FLR's price has drifted dangerously close to the sell/stop loss at $39. Still, the calculation here is that the shares will hold support at $40, then start heading north again as oil/natural gas projects slowly resume in the quarters ahead.

Continue reading Fluor: Should One Ride Out the Rough Patch?

PPL Corp: Investors React Negatively After Acquisition

The shares of utility PPL Corporation (PPL), which I first wrote about on May 26, 2009, at a price of $32.15, have totally misbehaved, and it's probably best to stand-aside at this juncture, pending additional performance data in the quarter ahead. If you own the shares, I'd hold them, but I wouldn't add to a position at this time.

In late April, PPL Corp's shares fell significantly after it announced its purchase of Kentucky-based utilities Louisville Gas & Electric and Kentucky Utilities for $7.625 billion, contingent on approvals. The consensus is that the deal will be (at best) modestly dilutive for the first year, and PPL's shares fell about $4 on the news.

Continue reading PPL Corp: Investors React Negatively After Acquisition

Time to Sell Murphy Oil?

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) which I first wrote about on April 29, 2009, at a price of $47.80, has tried the patience of investors over the past 12 months.

The stock recently held support at $50 and accelerated to about $60, but is now showing signs of a familiar range-bound pattern, hence it's probably best to exit shares at this stage, and take the roughly $12 gain.

Continue reading Time to Sell Murphy Oil?

Five Days Left to Deeply Consider Manufacturing and Energy Stocks

On April 26, the long anticipated Senate climate bill is slated for its debut. Climate change talking points aside, how powerful a piece of legislation will this bill turn out to be for investors, and what could be its effects on manufacturing, retail and energy stocks?

For the sake of discussion, let's just assume that the bill will pass and become law. The first thing to understand is that it's not much more than an act of taxation. That new tax will be levied against businesses large and small via carbon offsets. They'll be showing up on balance sheets everywhere. Granted, we all know that businesses hand their tax bills down line to the consumers, but for large corporations and conglomerates, it's certain that the documentation and accounting will be more than a little distracting. Of course some business giants will be able to simply buy their way out from under the mess.

Continue reading Five Days Left to Deeply Consider Manufacturing and Energy Stocks

Oceaneering: Take Some Profits off the Table

Of course, oil prices could moderate this year to the $40-per-barrel range, and the U.S. government could invest in a serious way in natural gas for vehicle propulsion.

But until then, the reign of oil continues, and it makes sense to consider Oceaneering International (OII), which I first wrote about on April 7, 2009 at a price of $38.01. If you bought Oceaneering in April 2009, you're up more than 100%, and there's more upside ahead. That said, it's perfectly acceptable to take some profits here with OII: those investors who can tolerate the risk, can retain the shares to go for an even bigger gain.

Continue reading Oceaneering: Take Some Profits off the Table

LDK Solar Not Interesting After Q4

The solar power industry is no doubt a fascinating long-term thesis; future solutions for global energy needs, ones that involve alternatives to oil-based platforms, will be in demand. Even so, that doesn't mean I have to like LDK Solar (LDK) after its fourth-quarter report.

According to TheFly.com, LDK Solar didn't score a win in the analyst expectations game. The call was for 12 cents per share. On an adjusted basis, the Chinese solar entity brought in only 3 cents per share. The top line was okay, but as indicated, margin quality wasn't necessarily the greatest. According to Reuters, management is counting on margin improvement in the coming year. That's cool.

Continue reading LDK Solar Not Interesting After Q4

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:22 AM

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