Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) to neutral to underweight ahead of the company's investment meeting Tuesday and raised its target on shares to $55 from $46.
• Barclays upgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to overweight from equal weight, citing earning potential and core price fundamentals. The firm raised its target to $52 from $55.
• KeyBanc upgraded Denbury Resources (DNR) to buy from hold based on expectations that the EAC acquisition has material value that is not reflected in shares. The firm has a $19 target on shares.
• BP Plc (BP) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Cowen.
• Rowan Companies (RDC) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's Q4 results could remove uncertainty and cost cutting initiatives could drive upside.
  
• Baird upgraded Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) to Outperform from Neutral and raised their target to $42 from $34 citing valuation, solid execution, and growth potential.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Buy from Hold as it believes the recent sell-off presents an attractive buying opportunity. The firm believes Netflix has one of the best earnings outlooks in the internet sector and increased its target price to $52 from $37.
• AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• Joy Global (NYSE: JOYG) and Bucyrus (NYSE: BUCY) were raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Synthesis Energy, Lamar Advertising and Urban Outfitters were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Merriman believes Synthesis Energy Systems Inc (NASDAQ: SYMX) is well-positioned as it begins to leverage its exclusive global license for U-GAS technology and commences the deployment of its coal-to-methanol production facilities in China. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
• Lamar Advertising Company (NASDAQ: LAMR) was initiated with a Buy rating and $51 target at Jefferies, as they believe shares are oversold at current levels.
• William Blair believes Urban Outfitters Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) will benefit from both strong sales and a steep margin recovery in the coming two years. The firm assumed coverage of Urban with an Outperform rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Lehman started United Rentals Inc (NYSE: URI) with an Equal Weight rating and $22 target.
• Credit Suisse assumed coverage of Mellanox Technologies (NASDAQ: MLNX) with a Neutral rating.
• EPIQ Systems Inc (NASDAQ: EPIQ) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Wachovia.

Most of the day, the Dow Jones industrial average was in a steady, but slow decline -- the kind of drop where traders figure it's going to be a negative day, but nothing to worry too much about.

But after the much-anticipated minutes of the Federal Reserve Board's Aug. 7 meeting went public around 2 P.M. and investors didn't see the signs they were hoping for that the central bank would be willing to cut interest rates, the selling picked up. The Dow closed down about 250 points. That's less than 2% -- hardly the stuff of panic -- but more indication that a lot of professional investors are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and do it soon.

A decline in consumer confidence reported earlier in the day didn't help. It's becoming increasingly clear that the real danger with the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market is not with the financial sector. Sure, hedge funds will shut down, big banks' earnings will suffer. But the really big worry now is that the U.S. consumer could roll over.

That's the view of Robert Loest, senior portfolio manager of Integrity Mutual Funds, who visited AOL's offices today. The housing market is not going to rebound quickly or easily -- especially with so many adjustable rate mortgages still due to reset to higher rates in 2008, he warns. And he suggests investors avoid all consumer plays; not just the luxury goods stocks, but even discounters, like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT).

Loest further recommends picking up some counter-cyclical stocks -- like bankruptcy software maker Epiq Systems (NYSE: EPIQ) or collection agency Portfolio Recovery Associates (NYSE: PRAA), both of which he owns. "Those are the kind of stocks that should do well when the economy does poorly and could make a real difference to your portfolio," he says.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Some of today's more noteworthy downgrades included Dean Foods Co (DF), Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX), Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), Alcan Inc (AL) and Horizon Offshore, Inc (HOFF):

• Dean Foods Co (NYSE: DF) was cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan to reflect future guidance concerns after management's cautious tone.

• Louisana-Pacific Corp (NYSE: LPX) was downgraded to Strong Sell from Buy at Matrix USA. The firm believes a weak housing market is having a significant negative impact on shares and sees downside to $14/share.

• Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ: COST) was taken off the Strategic Stock List at UBS based on valuation.

• Bear Stearns cut Alcan (NYSE: AL) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation.

• Oppenheimer downgraded Horizon Offshore (NASDAQ: HOFF) to Neutral from Buy on news of the acquisition by Cal Dive International (NYSE: DVR) as the firm believes the likelihood of a materially higher bid is low...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman cut Federal Signal Corp (NYSE: FSS) to Sell from Neutral.

• AG Edwards downgraded EPIQ Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: EPIQ) to Hold from Buy.

• Raymond James downgraded United Community Banks, Inc (NASDAQ: UCBI) to Neutral from Buy.

• Wachovia cut Targa Resources Partners LP (NASDAQ: NGLS) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Gerdau Ameristeel Corp (NYSE: GNA) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.

• Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) was taken off Goldman's Conviction Buy List.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).