Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII) to Buy from Hold after channel checks indicated the company's sales trends improved through September. The firm raised its target on shares to $49 from $33.
• Jefferies upgraded Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Hold from Underperform after channel checks indicated IT spending will be strong in the second half of 2009, but the firm finds the stock fully valued at current levels. Jefferies raised its target on shares to $40 from $32.
• Pali Captital upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and expectations that lower pricing and international growth will be catalysts going forward. The firm set a $45 price target on shares.
• Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• PPD Inc. (NASDAQ: PPDI) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.

I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX), first recommended on June 9, 2009 at a price of $63.64, and the reason isn't the stuff of rocket science.

An aging populace, plus a likely renewed emphasis on health and wellness in the United States, and the probability of federal health care reform legislation bodes well for many health care players, including pharmacy benefits managers like ESRX. If you bought the shares on June 9, you're up about 20%.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says even stocks without exposure to that country will probably be on sale today.

If China has pulled back 20%, do we have to pull back 20%, even though they were up 80% and we are up 9%? Are we so in lock step now that when China catches a cold, we are the ones with pneumonia?

I don't think so. It's such an easy story to stretch out, though you can see that our Freeports (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) and our Exxons (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) can get hammered.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we'll see a big dip lower, but watch these key stocks for underlying buying interest.

At last, a test, a test of the futures! That's what we have been looking for, one of these gigantic down openings like the old days, where it goes down and you stand there and you get pounded. That's what the market was, basically, from the top of 2007 until March -- a series of days where you came in and the futures were down so much that you knew they were going to go lower, except for the people who shorted it the night before and were taking profits.

Welcome home, bears!

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you wait for market conditions to reach perfection, you'll be waiting a long time.

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the plunge in China overnight is being blamed on the industrial metal, so expect some carry-over.

It turns out copper was the metric. Drats, I thought it was the dollar or oil. I thought we were supposed to buy the cyclicals on earnings being better than expected. I thought we might be buying the minerals and the steels and the oils off the morning proxy of the Baltic Freight Index, known as the Baltic Fright Index in the days when it kept going down, and kept us out of the Freeports (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) and Vales (NASDAQ: VALE) (Cramer's Take) and Union Pacifics (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and U.S. Steels (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take).

Silly me.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says health care has never been this cheap relative to the market in its history.

Health care's not done rallying. As President Obama prepared himself for claiming a great political victory, we are all recognizing that the single-payer, socialized medicine covering cradle-to-grave, 100% paid for by the rich, the fear that left all things health care in the P/E dustbin, is dead. That's not going to happen.

That leaves us with the biggest bargains the market has to offer.

Health care has never been this lowly valued relative to the market in its history. Remember, 98% of the time it trades at a meaningful premium. I think that many believe some of these moves (like the Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) (Cramer's Take) move) is because of gigantic new drug finds. In fact, I think they just got too cheap and the only thing really meaningful about the Celgene rally came because one of its Revlimid studies was stopped for good results, actually a predictable event given how well the drug works on many different kinds of cancers.

An aging populace, plus likely, renewed emphasis on health and wellness in the United States bodes well for many health care players, and pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESRX) is one.

In general, analysts see F2009 revenue for ESRX falling about 1-2%, exclusive of results from WellPoint, Inc. (NYSE: WLP), which Express Scripts agreed to acquire earlier this year, pending approvals.

Investors have had little reason to be hopeful during the past two years as the economic news seems to get more depressing by the day. But lately, the stock market has turned optimistic and investors begin the week bracing themselves for any word that the good times may not last.

Stocks appear poised to open higher as Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) agreed this morning to acquire Wellpoint Inc.'s pharmacy benefits management business for $4.68 billion, proving that the once-moribund mergers and acquisitions market is showing signs of life.

Analyst upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded Merck (NYSE: MRK) to Outperform from Market Perform and raised its target to $30 from $27 citing valuation and its decision to buy Schering-Plough, at what appears to be a reasonable price.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised its target to $12 from $5 as it believes webOS has increased its chances for Smartphone leadership and will increase its attractiveness as an acquisition target.
  
• RW Baird upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Outperform from Neutral on valuation as it believes balance sheet risks are overly discounted in the stock, creating a buying opportunity. The firm has a $3 target on shares.
• Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Argus.
  
• France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Buy from Neutral citing progress in the company's turnaround plan, execution, and 2009 earnings growth.
  
• Thomas Weisel raised Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) to Overweight from Market Weight and believes the company's core business remains strong and that valuation is attractive.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation after checks indicated the company should meet Q2 expectations.
• NeuStar (NSR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  
• UBS raised Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Goldman upgraded Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ: ZION) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $33 from $43 following the company's Q3 results, as they believe near-term credit trends and concerns surrounding its securities portfolio will limit upside. Shares were also downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight due to deteriorating credit trends.
  
• Banc of America cut Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of margin stability and their belief consensus estimates remain too high.
  
• Barclays downgraded Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing the global economic slowdown and refinancing risk.
• Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Luxottica (NYSE: LUX) and ArvinMeritor (NYSE: ARM) were cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
  
• Luxottica was also downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• JP Morgan cut AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH) to Underweight from Neutral.

Analyst initiations:

• Janney Montgomery believes Gladstone Capital's (NASDAQ: GLAD) management team and lower portfolio investment risk profile warrant a premium valuation. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $13 target.
• CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was initiated with a Buy rating and $14 target at Cantor, as the firm finds the stock attractively valued given its secular growth rate potential.
  
• KeyBanc is positive on Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) management team, growth potential, cost initiatives, and differentiation. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $30 target.
• Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) was initiated at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $7 target.
  
• Rigel Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RIGL) was initiated at Banc of America with a Neutral rating and $21 target.
  
• Morgan Stanley started Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) with an Equal Weight rating.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Coventry Health, Express Scripts and Medco Health were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Credit Suisse downgraded shares of UBS (NYSE:UBS) to Neutral from Outperform as they believe UBS will have difficulty rebuilding the franchise and do not expect a quick recovery for its private bank unit.
  
• Wachovia downgraded Coventry Health (NYSE:CVH) to Market Perform from Outperform citing concerns regarding visibility around higher than expected inpatient/outpatient costs following reduced 2008 guidance.
  
• UBS downgraded Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX) and Medco Health to Neutral from Buy citing the Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/Ranbaxy settlement, which reduces the likelihood of a generic Lipitor launch in 2010.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman downgraded ENI SpA (NYSE:E) to Neutral from Buy and removed the stock from the Pan-Europe Conviction Buy List.
  
• Huntsman (NYSE:HUN) was downgraded to Underperform from hold at Jefferies.
  
• Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) was cut at Citigroup to Hold from Buy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Express Scripts and ArQule were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $90 from $125 after channel checks at CES raised concerns about competitive pressure in the U.S. and pricing. Deutsche sees increasing uncertainty for 2008.
• Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation and risk to 2008 guidance.
  
• Banc of America downgraded shares of ArQule (NASDAQ: ARQL) to Neutral from Buy following the departure of CEO Dr. Stephen Hill, to reflect greater execution risk and uncertainty.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• JMP Securities lowered Red Lion Hotels (NYSE: RLH) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Underperform from Peer Perform.

An active pharmacy benefits manager should smooth the path between patients and their prescription medications. There is an outfit in St Louis that handles the job well. It was the recipient of Fortune's first-ever "Streetie Award" for the best overall performance by any company.

Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) is one of the largest pharmacy benefit management companies in North America, serving over 50 million members through managed-care organizations, insurance carriers, employers and workers compensation groups. Services include network-pharmacy claims processing, formulary management, home delivery services, drug-utilization review, disease management and medical-data analysis services. The company also distributes a full range of injectable and infusion biopharmaceutical products directly to patients.

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) stock is trading much lower today after competitor Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) announced a 4% Q4 profit drop, and missed earnings expectations by 7 cents, sending the stock spiraling down over 12% in early trading. If you think this stock could get hurt by the same issues as WAG and won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ESRX.

The stock has been climbing gently over the past several months, reaching a one-year high of $56.08 on Friday. This morning, ESRX opened at $55.20. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.48 and a high of $55.30. As of 11:05, ESRX is trading at $54.67, down $1.15 (-2.1%). The chart for ESRX looks bearish with significant improvement, while S&P gives the stock an encouraging 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in 7 weeks as long as ESRX is below $60 at November expiration. Express Scripts would have to rise by more than 10% before we would start to lose money.

ESRX has never been above $60, and could be held down by resistance at the $55 level.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ESRX.