Two weeks ago I decided to sell my shares of E*Trade (ETFC) after concluding it did not fit my investment criteria. It was one of my successful picks for 2010 and I made money having sold puts establishing a base price of $13.50. It closed Friday February 25 at $15.89.

I might not have chosen to post about this except for news that Ken Griffin's hedge fund Citadel Investment Group plans to sell much of its stake in E*Trade Financial. The largest shareholder selling out is news. Citadel will still hold valuable warrants, giving it the option of taking a very large position again, but for now there seems to be a change of heart for them as well.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Time to Sell E*Trade?

Chasing Value: Time to Sell E*Trade? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 27 Feb 2011 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Teams have been preparing their game plans and it's time to see which of the 60 teams will win. No, not the Packers or Steelers -- Go Pack! -- but PepsiCo (PEP), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), General Motors (GM) and all the other companies competing for the best spots in one of TV's most expensive marketing moments, costing an estimated $3 million dollars per 30 second spot.

For those not into football, the ads in the Super Bowl game can be more amusing than the game itself as advertising teams compete for attention, show their best efforts and even get rated by numerous online sites. Last year, Doritos (owned by PepsiCo), and E-Trade (ETFC) did well, and Anheuser-Busch seems to always have a Clydesdale horse in the running.

Continue reading Who Will Win the Super Bowl Ad Game This Year?

Who Will Win the Super Bowl Ad Game This Year? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 05 Feb 2011 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

E*Trade (ETFC - option chain) shares are rising today despite the company announcing Q4 earnings last night and posting a loss of $24.11 million, or 11 cents per share, on revenue of $517.95 million. Analysts had forecast a loss of 4 cents per share on revenue of 321.77 million.

ETFC also said it cut its loan-loss provision to $194 million from $292 million in the year-ago quarter, suggesting that it expects much lower future losses on bad loans. This stock is one that has been hit so hard by bad news that even though the overall earnings news was rough it is on the rise today. ETFC missed estimates and posted a loss after finally having two quarterly profits in a row, this small bit of optimistic news has energized investors. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ETFC.

Continue reading E*TRADE Cuts Loan-Loss Provisions in Half

E*TRADE Cuts Loan-Loss Provisions in Half originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Jan 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• NYSE Euronex (NYX) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• General Dynamics (GD) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Deere (DE), Parker-Hannifin (PH) and ExlService (EXLS) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Aflac (AFL) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Amdocs (DOX) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Juniper (JNPR) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Rudolph Tech (RTEC) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Hershey (HSY) and Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Micron (MU) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AFL, DE, DOX, GD, GS, HSY, ITT, MS, NYX, TXN, UBS, WYNN ...

Analyst Calls: AFL, DE, DOX, GD, GS, HSY, ITT, MS, NYX, TXN, UBS, WYNN ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Jan 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The year 2010 has come and gone and my results are in. This is my fourth annual stock results to be reported on BlogginStocks, so something of a track record is starting to form. This past year ended with a modest improvement over the unmanaged Standard & Poors 500 index

The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010, took readers through a review of many candidates, concluding with the ten picks, using prices from Dec. 28, 2009.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Final Review -- Winners and Losers

Chasing Value: 2010 Final Review -- Winners and Losers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading E*TRADE Drops on Declining Accounts

E*TRADE Drops on Declining Accounts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Dec 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Rumor has it -- again -- that dot.bomb era survivor E*Trade (ETFC) may be acquired by none other than Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) for an initial offer of $24 a share. This chatter moved the stock price marginally Friday up 72 cents to $15.27. Although as of Monday morning the rumors are unsubstantiated, trading in stock options has heated up on the call side.

Bantering about the inevitable acquisition of E*Trade has been an annual pastime on and off for the past 10 years, but they resurfaced again in earnest after the financial crisis creamed most companies and institutions. E*Trade is currently capitalized at $3.37 billion. If the rumors bear fruit, the Schwab offer represents approximately a 60% premium to the current price.

Continue reading Chasing Value: E*Trade Schwab Buyout Rumors

Chasing Value: E*Trade Schwab Buyout Rumors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Sep 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

TD Ameritrade (AMTD), a broker whose competitors include Charles Schwab (SCHW) and E*Trade (ETFC), closed Wednesday's session higher by 2%. The final quote came in at $14.93. That's not too far from the 52-week low of $14.53. The twelve-month range is a narrow one, as the 52-week high is $21.30.

Is the stock a trade? An investment? Indeed, you may be thinking that it's time to buy. Some things worry me, however. The one-year chart isn't attractive at all. Well, in one sense it is, because a trader/investor would be buying low at this point.

Continue reading TD Ameritrade: How Does the Stock Look?

TD Ameritrade: How Does the Stock Look? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Sep 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: E-Trade Is Adrift

Chasing Value: E-Trade Is Adrift originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jun 2010 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading E*TRADE, Amgen and Others Heating Up in Google Searches

E*TRADE, Amgen and Others Heating Up in Google Searches originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jun 2010 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Great, Germans Halt Naked Short Selling

Great, Germans Halt Naked Short Selling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 May 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) strong Q1 results beat earnings expectations, and yet shares sold off.
• American Express Co. (AXP) reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, which lifted shares.
• Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares rose to a new all-time high after it said earnings surged 90% in its Q2.
• Coca-Cola Co. (KO) beat Q1 earnings estimates but weaker-than-expected revenue sent shares lower.
• eBay Inc. (EBAY) shares sold off after Q1 earnings were in line with expectations and guidance was weak.

Continue reading Earnings Highlights: Amazon, Apple, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Hershey, IBM ...

Earnings Highlights: Amazon, Apple, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Hershey, IBM ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 24 Apr 2010 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

E*Trade (ETFC), an online broker whose colleagues include Charles Schwab (SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (AMTD), is a low-priced stock. It closed on Wednesday at $1.82, representing a rise of 2.8%; the move was backed by strong volume. The company reported first-quarter earnings yesterday after the bell. What should we make of the results?

According to MarketWatch, things seem to be improving. A loss of 2 cents per share compared very favorably to the loss of 41 cents per share booked in the year-ago period. As for estimates, the analysts were thinking that a loss of 3 cents per share was in the offing.

Continue reading E-Trade Still Speculative After Q1

E-Trade Still Speculative After Q1 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Apr 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Apr 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

On Wednesday afternoon, interim CEO Robert Druskin confessed that E*Trade Financial (ETFC) is headed back to the drawing board in its search for a permanent new leader. At an investor conference, Druskin explained that the online broker's preferred candidate for the position was no longer in the running. (He didn't identify the erstwhile candidate, but we can safely assume it was not Lindsay Lohan.)

Druskin's announcement yesterday confirmed a recent report in The Wall Street Journal's Deal Blog. In a post published March 2, a trio of reporters explained that "E*Trade directors were concerned that the [top candidate] might become distracted by a pending divorce, according to people with knowledge of the discussions."

Continue reading E*Trade Financial Hits a Snag in CEO Search

E*Trade Financial Hits a Snag in CEO Search originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (AMTD) didn't experience a spectacular start to its new fiscal year. The broker, which competes with Charles Schwab (SCHW) and E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC), was hampered by a decline in trading activities.

According to the press release, revenues increased a modest 2% from the year-ago period. On a sequential basis, the top line actually contracted. Net income decreased 26% to 23 cents per share. Earnings.com indicates an expectation of 26 cents per share. Margins and profitability metrics unfortunately were down across the board.

Continue reading TD Ameritrade's Q1 Worthy of a Trade?

TD Ameritrade's Q1 Worthy of a Trade? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Jan 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have expressed my opinion often about the contribution that dividends make to your overall return. Most shrewd investors, and especially "my pal Warren," know this and understand why I re-emphasize the point when I make my annual selections.

By now I hope you have had a chance to peruse my picks for 2010. If not the links below will give you another opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Dividends for Ten Stock Picks

Chasing Value: 2010 Dividends for Ten Stock Picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 Dec 2009 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the first time my annual picks will include a stock option. I have written numerous blogs this year about something called "naked puts" -- that is a sell to open put position -- committing me to buy a certain number of shares by a certain date if the closing price is less than the strike price.

In this case I have selected the E*TRADE (ETFC) January 2011, $2.50 puts last traded on December 28, 2009 at $0.97 for a 39% return. If it expires, as I am betting it will, by the third Friday of that month I have no further obligation.

This type of option transaction is not available to most investors. It is marginable, but you pay no interest.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 -- #10 E-Trade 'Naked Put'

Chasing Value: 2010 -- #10 E-Trade 'Naked Put' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 Dec 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The 5 data points were price-to-sales (P/S), price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), dividend yield and return-on-equity (ROE). I did look at other things but these were the subject of my initial focus.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010

Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.