Fourteen stocks have been reviewed so far with eight of them potential contenders for 2010. These include some picks from 2009, some old dependables and a few more on the speculative side.
During the year I have written on occasion about selling put options (naked puts) because the premiums offered were very generous and from my perspective assumed market collapse. This was reflected in my July post Serious Money: The world's dumbest market
Today I am considering four naked puts and two more stocks. The options are all based on stocks now in review.
The clock is ticking away the time before the year ends and I have only begun to sort out the possibilities. In Part 1 of this series, I discussed breaking up my potential picks into three categories: contender, on the fence, and out of the running until the 10 stocks have been identified.
Four contenders have been considered so far: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) and Diageo plc (DEO).
Six more are included in today's review: EZCorp Inc. (EZPW), General Electric Company (GE), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Annaly Capital Management ( NLY), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) plus Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). These include the remaining five from 2009 and one more familiar to most investors.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Perhaps EZCorp (NASDAQ: EZPW) will have to create a section for surfboards and snakebite kits to accommodate the customers they hope to gain in Australia by investing in pawn shop operators, Cash Converters International Ltd.
The Texas based pawn shop and check cashing company invested $45 million for a 30% stake in the Cash Converters getting two seats on the board and making a grand leap half way around the world. Just last year they bought outright a Mexican company, expanding their North American operations.
Last December EZCorp was included on my list of nine suggestions for 2009. Since that time it has remained one of the two laggards. I still believe in the company that continues to expand, using its own cash as it maintains a very low level of debt.
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.
The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.
Among the stocks that have been doing surprisingly poorly, of the nine, is EZCORP (NASDAQ: EZPW) that owns and operates a chain of pawn shops and cash advance outlets.
Today it is trading significantly lower, from yesterday's close of $12.89, off about 14.5%, bouncing around the $11.00 mark. The stock is down on company news that earnings for the next two quarters and the full year would be down a few cents per share below analysts estimates and earlier company forecasts.
The year started off with continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before --trillions further in debt, most likely.
Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Congress to move forward on various contentious budget proposals and continued federal stimulus packages.
The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely.
Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Senate minority to compromise, and get yet another federal stimulus package off the shelf and out the door.
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
"EZCORP (NASDAQ: EZPW) -- our top pick for 2009 -- is poised to benefit from an economy that will probably see more tough times before improving," says Alex Kolb.
The editor of Zacks Breakout Letter explains, "The company operates pawnshops that provide the type of lending and credit services many turn to during rough economic conditions."
"EZCORP is expanding through acquisitions. It recently acquired the assets of 11 pawnshops located in Las Vegas and Henderson, Nevada. The opening of more stores in U.S. and Mexico is on the horizon for 2009.
"Furthermore, the company's earnings per share are expected to grow 18% over the next 3 to 5 years, which is also ahead of the industry average.
"The pawnshop play has a solid record of matching or beating analyst estimates. Dating back to 2004, EZPW missed consensus forecasts only 2 times, was in-line with estimates 4 times and was ahead of projections during the other quarters.
The first trading session of the 2009 may have brought some optimism with it as markets rallied, but it's difficult to imagine all our troubles over after a year that set one bad and worse record after another. Stocks mirrored the global economic slowdown brought on by the housing market and the financial markets crises.
Still, there are many who still seek to invest in hope that one day they could get nice returns on their investments. While the recent volatility in the stock market benefited some shrewd day traders, most investors know to stick to a long-term, stable investment plan.
To help achieve some of these long-term return, BloggingStocks contributors continued to suggest some companies to invest in, as well as some to avoid:
Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.
The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.
In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.
Sometime in the future the economy will recover, maybe not with staggering gains, but it will recover. Ah, but you ask when? Well, trying to forecast that, would really be sticking my neck out.
If you are an avid reader then you have seen some predictions that speak of a recovery in the spring and some that push it out as far as 2011. Tough business that prediction business.
All that is well and good, but let me get to something that I do feel comfortable predicting, or at least repeating the daily news: UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE GETTING A LOT WORSE in 2009. Who will benefit from this? I expect the church pews and bar stools will be in full use. I also think pawn shops, those lenders of last resort (excepting your local loan shark) will be doing a booming business.
The two most prominent pawn shops that are expanding organically and by acquisition are Cash America (NYSE: CSH) and EZCorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW). Both are down this year but beating the indices by a fair margin.
"The credit crisis on Wall Street is headed for Main Street," says Mark Skousen, economist, professor, financial author and investment advisor.
In his The Hedge Fund Trader, he explains, "This means business is likely to jump at the nation's pawnbrokers." Here, he looks at EZCorp (NASDAQ: EZPW).
"Both the economy and the financial markets need consumer confidence for things to go smoothly. That is sorely lacking right now. As a result, I'm expecting a bumpy ride during the next few quarters.
"Predictably, low-income earners and middle-class individuals will be particularly hard hit by the downturn. That means business is likely to jump at the nation's pawnbrokers.
"So now is an excellent time to pick up a few shares of EZCorp. Based in Austin, Texas, EZCorp is a leader in the 'specialty consumer finance industry,' better known as pawn broking.
EZCORP (NASDAQ: EZPW) is one of the largest pawnshop operators in the United States. The firm offers non-recourse loans collateralized by tangible personal property, commonly known as pawn loans, through 294 EZPAWN locations in the U.S. and 30 outlets in Mexico. It also sells merchandise at these locations, primarily collateral forfeited from its pawn lending operations. The company offers short-term non-collateralized loans, often referred to as payday loans, at 461 EZMONEY shops and 71 of its EZPAWN locations.
The stock popped earlier in the week, on word of upside guidance from competitor Cash America International (NYSE: CSH). Shares then kept rising, when EZCORP upped its own numbers the next day. Management said it expected fiscal Q3 EPS of 25 cents, a figure above previous guidance (21 cents) and the consensus Street view (21 cents). The CEO cited stronger than expected sales in the company's EZPAWN stores and lower than expected signature loan bad debt in its EZMONEY shops. The firm also boosted Q4 EPS guidance to 35 cents (35 cent consensus) and FY08 EPS guidance to $1.19 ($1.15 consensus). Roth Capital subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and raised its price target to $19.
Fourteen stocks have been reviewed so far with eight of them potential contenders for 2010. These include some picks from 2009, some old dependables and a few more on the speculative side.
The clock is ticking away the time before the year ends and I have only begun to sort out the possibilities. In 
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction. 
Perhaps 
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: 
This has been a good year for many stock pickers and my 
The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely. 
"
Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town. 
Sometime in the future the economy will recover, maybe not with staggering gains, but it will recover. Ah, but you ask when? Well, trying to forecast that, would really be sticking my neck out.
Nuclear power is on the comeback trail
Apple backs AT&T in continuing spat with Verizon
Closing Bell: The recession is still over, still... do you feel it?
