There's no question that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), whose corporate colleagues include Merck (NYSE: MRK), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is a respected institution on Wall Street. It's a proud member of the Dow, and we all know the company's products: Band-Aid, Listerine, etc. J&J also makes diagnostic equipment and pharmaceuticals. It's truly a respected icon, as Steven Halpern found out.
Investors will be digging through J&J's third-quarter numbers next Tuesday, looking not only for signs about the economy but for signs about J&J itself. After all, everyone wants a defensive stock in their portfolios. A lot of companies aren't looking so defensive these days. Could J&J be the one?
According to Earnings.com, you shouldn't get too excited in terms of growth. The call for the bottom line is $1.11 per share. That would only represent low single-digit percentage growth. Of course, these days, that might be exciting enough. As to whether or not the bottom line will beat the analysts, I suppose the game is completely changed at this point, but I figure J&J will pull through on that count. It all depends on how much we can trust history given the brave new economic world we are suddenly faced with. According to this earnings analysis source at AOL Finance, J&J beat estimates the last four times at bat. Due to this strong recent trend, I'll assume J&J will deliver the goods.
So, let's assume J&J does please the Wall Street analysts. What then? Well, it's really going to be the outlook that's going to tell the ultimate tale. We'll have to see if management is going to give some positive thoughts during the conference call. What does management think about commodity costs and margins? What about the cash flows? Then there's the dividend and the share-repurchase program, two things which investors of J&J count on for long-term value. Management had a few things to say about these issues the last time around (please see the following transcript of the Q2 conference call). I think management is going to be cautious, but I don't feel that there will be any disastrous notes struck during the discussion with analysts.
Wednesday afternoon following the market close, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) will be reporting its fiscal first quarter earnings, and analysts are looking to see the company show earnings for the quarter of 92 cents per share.
The last time that the company reported was back on June 25, when it was able to beat out Wall Street estimates by two pennies, with a reported 98 cents per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, mostly a result of strong international demand, which was able to overcome weak consumer spending that hurt the company at home in the U.S. In fact, to find the last time that the company reported quarterly figures under Wall Street estimates, you would have to go all the way back to its fiscal fourth quarter 2006 when it missed by a penny, with a reported 70 cents per share.
On a year over year basis, should Nike come in with 92 cents per share, it would be a 16.9% drop from the $1.12 that it was able to earn during the first quarter of 2007.
Later today, after the market closes, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD) will serve up second-quarter numbers for fiscal 2009. And as far as I'm concerned, I'm expecting nothing great at all from this horrible company and its equally horrible stock. Yeah, I know, Krispy Kreme been a trader's dream this year. Krispy Kreme's shares have risen nearly 27% this year. On a six-month basis, the performance is even better: the stock is up more than 54% during that timeframe.
Sure, some have made money this year trading the famous doughnut maker. Still, on a 5-year basis, the stock has lost 90% of its value, and on a 3-year timeline, the decline is around 40%. The stock closed at $4 per share on Wednesday. Do I really want to buy this lottery ticket ahead of the earnings? Maybe if ultra-risk capital were involved, and I was willing to lose it all. I really don't expect to be blown away by the earnings report if the past is any indication. According to Earnings.com, Krispy Kreme has reported many misses. Granted, last quarter wasn't too bad. As Trey Thoelcke found, the company swung to a profit of $0.06 per share. This represented a good round of earnings growth. Revenues, however, had decreased 7%.
Last quarter's bottom-line improvement in no way excites me. The way I see it, this is a speculative idea at best, one that really doesn't have much of a bull thesis. Again, the stock performance argues against me, and the company could beat estimates if it can repeat its recent performance. The call for Krispy Kreme's Q2 income is a loss of $0.01. I mean, would it be so difficult to merely break even, or maybe book a penny or two of positive earnings per share?
Amid an unprecedented decline in the housing market and a significant slowdown in consumer spending, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is in the unenviable position of being a housing-dependent retailer. Not surprisingly, analysts are skeptical ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, which is slated to hit the Street next Tuesday, August 19, ahead of the opening bell.
According to Thomson Financial, analysts are expecting HD to report a profit of 61 cents per share for the recently concluded quarter. During the past year, the company's performance in the earnings spotlight has been mixed. First Call reports that Home Depot has exceeded earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters, and fallen short of the Street's mark in the other two reporting periods. Its second-quarter report a year ago was one of the upside surprises; HD beat expectations by five cents per share last August.
However, it doesn't look like brokerage firms are banking on another Street-beating quarter. There have been 3 downward revisions to HD's estimated annual earnings, compared to just 1 upward revision (per First Call). Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target on the shares is $29.53. This target is a premium of 8.6% to the stock's closing price Thursday, but it represents a discount of more than 23% to HD's current annual high. In other words, analysts' expectations for the stock are rather low.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), the retailer that keeps on chugging along nicely in the U.S. economic downturn, is set to release its Q2 numbers Thursday. Expectations are for a profit of 83 cents per share on sales of $101.6 billion, an increase from the year-ago quarter earnings of 76 cents per share and sales of $93 billion.
As I've been saying since 2006, Wal-Mart's effort to draw more affluent and middle-class customers through its doors was no match for its continued message of low prices. Customers, now more than ever, are lining up all day (and night) at the local Wal-Mart to buy everything from cheaper gas to low-priced milk, bread, processed foods and flat-panel televisions.
When U.S. sales chief Eduardo Castro-Wright announced that the retailer was going to partially abandon its Always Low Prices moniker and go after shoppers who purchase higher margin goods, I had a feeling that Wal-Mart's entire history of competing only on price would win the day, regardless of the strategy change. Then the housing crisis hit, gas prices went nuts, the auto industry saw a huge sales downturn -- particularly in large trucks and SUVs -- and 'staycation' became part of the language.
Wal-Mart changed its tune last year and now sports a new logo and tagline that reads Save Money. Live Better -- and that's pretty direct in its meaning. Wal-Mart is helping the average American family save money on all purchases so it can spend the savings elsewhere, like gas and school supplies. Is Wal-Mart your friend? That's the image it wants to present, and when it releases its Q2 numbers, it should easily meet financial expectations as it goes for half a trillion in annual sales in the next few years.
Agricultural equipment icon Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight next Wednesday, August 13. Ahead of the firm's third-quarter report, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting a profit of $1.37 per share. During the previous four quarters, DE has managed to meet or exceed Wall Street's expectations three times; during its second-quarter report, released in May, the company fell short by one penny per share. At the time, Deere warned that rising material costs could put a dent in third-quarter and full-year earnings.
However, it seems that some speculative investors have a short memory where Deere & Co. is concerned. Option activity on the stock is leaning distinctly bullish ahead of earnings, which could set the stage for a sharp downside move in the event of another profit miss.
The International Securities Exchange (ISE) reports that DE boasts a 10-day call/put ratio of 5.80. This data, which measures buy-to-open activity among retail-level investors, reveals that traders have purchased nearly 6 times more calls to open than puts on DE during the past couple of weeks. According to the ISE, option activity on the stock has not been more bullishly skewed at any other time during the past year. That's a rather bold optimistic bias, considering the stock has shed 28% year-to-date.
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is set to divulge its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. So, what should shareholders expect from this consumer-products behemoth?
Well, I don't think it's going to be much of a surprise. Data at Earnings.com suggest that analysts believe P&G will do $0.78 per share in terms of the bottom line. Management actually expects around that number, as well. A recent piece I wrote about P&G reiterating its guidance shows that between $0.76 and $.78 per share is the range being looked at. So, I think we'll see the top end of the range reported tomorrow. P&G has a solid recent history of slightly beating expectations. Perhaps there will be a beat, but it most likely won't be by more than a penny.
This will represent pretty decent performance in a market wracked by horrible inflationary pressures. Going back to Earnings.com, the previous year's bottom-line number was $0.67 per share, so P&G will be looking at good double-digit growth. The top line, by the way, should expand at least 8%. Volume data will also be important to look at so investors can get a handle on how successfully the company is cultivating price increases. P&G has a significant advantage over competitors since its line of products is so well-known and trusted. I mean, when it comes to things like Ivory Soap, many consumers will refuse to alter their brand loyalties even if they have to pay more at the pump. Yes, sales of generic products obviously do have a challenging impact, but as I found with Kraft's (NYSE: KFT) recent earnings report, brand equity is a selective advantage in the Darwinian landscape of supermarket shelves. It's also useful for protecting margins.
Like any vendor-of- unnecessary-luxuries in a recession-type era, Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) hasn't been doing swimmingly this year. The company's stock is 27.7% since its January 2nd open of $20.14; the second fiscal quarter results showed declining same-store sales; and the company's founding CEO fired his replacement and took the company back over. Furthermore, yesterday marked announcements of dozens of store closings in Australia and the layoffs of about 1,000 nonstore employees.
It may not be a good time to be a Starbucks investor. The company reports fiscal third quarter earnings after market close today. Analysts expect Starbucks to have earnings growth despite the setbacks; they are projecting earnings of 18.3 cents a share on revenues of $2.6 billion, according to Thompson. My best guess, though, is that the same-store sales will decline further and that Schultz will attempt to bury the disappointment with promises of a streamlined, more open company and more efficient operations in the next quarter. With all the closings set to occur over the next few months, it's likely that efficiencies won't be recognized until the next fiscal year. Just how patient are Starbucks investors?
The stock was down today 28 cents, or 1.87%, to $14.71 a few minutes before market close.
Viacom (NYSE: VIA) is due to report Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 29, after the market closes. What will be in store for the media company and fierce competitor of Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)? According to data at Zacks.com, the company may report something in the vicinity of $0.61 per share, which would be good for 12% growth on the bottom line. Viacom has a reasonable chance of beating the estimate, based on past history.
There will be a few key elements that investors will be looking at. One product that has been a driving factor for Viacom's success is, believe it or not, a video game. Rock Band, which competes against Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVID) Guitar Hero titles, has been a boon for the company, and the MTV segment specifically. The game, which is distributed by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), will have a sequel coming out this fall, and I hope management enlightens Wall Street about how it feels it will do against Activision Blizzard's new iteration of its own musical-gaming system and how it plans to promote it. Will there be any special synergies between MTV and the sequel? Watch for data on the number of song downloads that Rock Band is fueling.
When I took a look at Viacom's last earnings report, I found that the media-networks division was doing great business. Its operating income had jumped 15%. The media segment, which includes the valuable MTV Networks, should do well again in Q2, and I would expect something close to this kind of growth rate. However, I would be watching for signs from management that the economy may be affecting advertising. Going forward, this will be the challenge for MTV, Nickelodeon, etc. And speaking of Nickelodeon, are there any initiatives on the board to counteract the incredible growth that the Disney Channel has seen thanks to properties such as Hannah Montana? Investors should listen to the conference call for information about marketing plans and new shows, as well as merchandising schemes for the upcoming holiday season.
The week got off to a shaky start in the wake of several earnings disappointments, thus a lot of attention will be paid to Amazon (NASDQ: AMZN) when it reports its second quarter numbers this afternoon after the market closes.
Analysts are looking to see Amazon show earnings of 26 cents per share, and revenue of $3.96 billion. The last time that the company reported earnings was April 23, when be itat analysts' estimates by 2 pennies, with a reported 34 cents per share for its first quarter.
It has definitely been a tough couple of months for retailers, but we could see some strength in Amazon as a result of changes it made during the quarter which allows users to shop the store from their cell phones via its new service TextBuyIt.
Classic blue-chip tech company IBM (NYSE: IBM), whose colleagues include Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), is due to report earnings on Thursday after the market closes up shop. What are investors looking for? Growth, of course. Should they expect it?
Well, according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings data, Wall Street is looking for IBM to deliver earnings per share around the $1.82 mark for the second quarter. Revenues should be near $25.9 billion. If Big Blue hits both of these numbers, it would show that the company is coming along fine and that the current level of the stock price is justified. Of course, Wall Street doesn't want IBM to merely hit those numbers. Oh no, that would be too easy. Wall Street wants IBM to beat those expectations. In terms of the bottom line, there is positive recent history for an earnings beat. The company handily beat estimates in the last two quarters, and met expectations in the two quarters previous to that time frame.
Will the company beat expectations? I think it will. The momentum seems to be favorable for such an outcome. In fact, in a relative sense, the stock isn't signaling a terrible report by any stretch of the imagination. The 52-week low is $97.04 and the 52-week high is $129.99. IBM closed up on Wednesday over 2% to a share price of $125.94. Doesn't sound like the market is worried, does it?
Shares of eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) are up about 2% today, ahead of the announcement of its quarterly financial results after the close. What to expect when the online auction site reports?
Well, if you're interested in numbers, eBay indicated that second-quarter earnings will be between 30 and 32 cents per share, or between 39 and 41 cents per share on an adjusted basis. The company also predicted revenue of $2.1 to $2.15 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect eBay to be pretty much in-line with estimates, or just slightly better, and post adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share on revenue of $2.17 billion.
According to Jefferies & Co., eBay experiences "strong Marketplaces listings growth and ongoing strength in payments and non-gross merchandise value, or GMV, businesses." On Tuesday, RBC Capital Markets maintained its Sector Perform rating on eBay, but reduced the target price from $40 to $35 due to "continued transition of the company's platform and low visibility into the core marketplaces platform," and due to some misgivings about month-to-month worsening trends. However, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Banc of America actually raised estimates recently.
Intel Corp.'s (NASDAQ: INTC) quarterly earnings results are like a canary in a coal mine for investors. If the world's largest chipmaker beats Wall Street expectations later today, then shares of every gadget, widget and internet company will raise in sympathy. If things go awry, tech investors better run for cover.
Interestingly, Wall Street analysts are forecasting growth at the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company to slow to a crawl in the quarter but most consider the stock a buy. Revenue is expected to increase 7% in the second quarter, down from 12% in the previous three quarters, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News who are calling for sales to rise 4% this year, half the rate of 2007. Analysts expect the company to earn 26 cents per share on revenue of $9.33 billion.
Earlier this year, tech research firm Gartner reduced its worldwide sales forecasts for personal computers, citing the weakening economy and cautioned that growth could drop into the single digits. But what's driving Intel these days is notebook computers, where sales remain robust. Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) reported better-than-expected results in May because of growth in laptops sales.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), a competitor of IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), will report its earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings summary, the software giant will be expected to produce sales of about $15 billion on earnings per share of 47 cents. These numbers would represent double-digit growth rates for each metric.
According to this estimates page at AOL Finance, Microsoft has cultivated a reputation for being reliable when it comes to delivering on Wall Street expectations. It certainly has the assets to keep this trend going. The company's operating-system monopoly, as well as its incredible success with the Office suite of products, guarantees a steady stream of cash flow and bottom-line predictability. Other investments, such as the Xbox 360 and the company's various Internet properties, aren't as guaranteed. In fact, Microsoft has engaged a very strange battle (strange to me and others, at least) to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to bolster its future prospects on the 'net.
So, here's what investors should be looking for. I will be very interested in what management has to say about its thoughts regarding Yahoo! and its utility for Microsoft. Is it an absolute necessity? I doubt it, and I really do hope that shareholders will finally get some closure on this subject. The best thing would be for Microsoft to announce that it is done with the portal. And in terms of the Xbox 360, I would be interested in hearing any new marketing strategies being readied for the holiday season and if the current recessionary environment will have any effect on sales. Microsoft recently reduced the price for one Xbox 360 model as a way of increasing that system's value proposition in relation to the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii. The company also has entered partnerships with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), according to Variety, to make its Xbox Live asset even more attractive to users looking for cool content such as movies and TV shows.
The earnings season was officially launched last night with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reporting better than expected numbers, and tomorrow we are going to see another big name, Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) report its second quarter numbers.
The company is due to report its current earnings prior to the market open, and going into tomorrow's report analysts are looking to see the company show 49 cents per share on $3.15 billion in revenues. The housing slump over the past year has definitely been hurting hotel operators, so it will be interesting to see what kind of quarter Marriott is able to show to its investors.
The last time the hotel chain released its quarterly numbers was back on April 17, when it matched analyst estimates for its first quarter with 33 cents per share. The stock made a brief rally following the release, but over the past month has been in a solid downward trend.