IBM (NYSE: IBM), whose tech colleagues include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), is set to report earnings for Q4 on Tuesday, January 20. One of the more exciting attributes that IBM can claim this earnings season is that it isn't a financial company. You don't want to be invested in those things, to be sure. So many observers will be looking forward to seeing exactly how IBM is handling the recession, because even though it isn't a financial entity, it's still affected by what's going on around it (and us, for that matter).
Estimates can vary depending on the source, but according to Earnings.com, Wall Street is looking for somewhere around $3.03 per share. If it hits this number, many will probably be singing the company's praises, because that would represent high single-digit growth on the bottom line of approximately 8%. Hey, as long as profits are growing, you can relax, at least a little bit.
As we all know, though, an earnings beat would be so much better. IBM has a great track record of beating estimates, according to the link. So I would expect that we will see IBM go beyond expectations this Tuesday. Furthermore, looking into the recent past, IBM had a great third quarter. Diluted earnings per share were up 22%, as this piece by Douglas McIntyre mentions. Douglas also highlighted the incredible strength and diversity of the IBM business model. Indeed, it doesn't just sell software, it sells services, too. It's got a great brand, and it tends to do well with its margins. So, yes, I think IBM has what it takes to whip the analysts yet again and to report good numbers.
However, I would not be a buyer ahead of the report. Why take the risk in this trading environment? Clues to the company's outlook will essentially influence the tape, so you'll have to follow the conference call and evaluate management's comments carefully to see whether you want to buy-in after the earnings release. IBM is definitely a solid long-term idea. And is it cheap? I'd say so. Elizabeth Harrow recently made a positive argument in terms of Big Blue's valuation. I'd be willing to bet that a lot of traders will be setting themselves up ahead of the numbers. They probably will turn out to be correct. But I think the idea that IBM is cheap may not mean much in the context of an increasingly bad news flow. I just haven't jettisoned my overall bearish stance just yet, and it's been influencing my trading.
One thing's for sure: IBM is not a short-sell candidate ahead of the release. That I can state unequivocally. So, as for me, I'll just enjoy reading the earnings report without the pressure of having a position in IBM on at the time.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.