Unless you are completely out of touch with pop culture, you probably know that Disney's (NYSE: DIS) High School Musical 3: Senior Year is coming to theaters today. However, there's another film that's coming out as well, one that's darker, and quite a bit bloodier to boot: Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) Saw V.

This is actually going to be one of the most exciting weekends ever for box-office observers. Exactly how high will Musical gross over the weekend? That's the big question. I've read guesses that center around the $30 million mark. I've seen one pundit predict $40 million. Well, let's consider the following. Saw IV was released last year around this time. It grossed about $31 million in its debut weekend according to data at Boxofficemojo.com. Saw II and Saw III grossed a similar amount in their respective opening weekends. Given the fact that the Musical franchise has captured a lot of zeitgeist equity the last couple years, and given that it isn't limited by an R-rating, I'd have to assume that we're looking at between $40 million and $50 million for the opening weekend. I say it will be toward the upper end of that range.

Now, where does this leave Saw V? Actually, this weekend is even more interesting than it appears at first glance. Lions Gate's stock has been declining along with the market, but it certainly also has critics in terms of the quality of its earnings and cash-flow growth, as well as the fact that it spooks some people because it has direct exposure to the very risky movie business. The studio, without a doubt, needs Saw V to hit it out of the park. It desperately needs to be number one. For one thing, the opening grosses for the franchise have, as I sort of alluded to earlier, plateaued. To me, that means that Lions Gate is increasing its risk with every new sequel. For another thing, investors who are losing money on Lions Gate want to know that management is capable of determining the life cycle of a franchise; they want to have faith that the powers that be recognize when sequels should stop, or when they should bypass theatrical exhibition and see release on other media. If Saw V doesn't live up to its gore-rich reputation, then Wall Street might lose faith in Lions Gate. From my perspective, I have to wonder if people aren't getting sick of the movies. I love the concept, and the character of Jigsaw, as portrayed by Tobin Bell, is a brilliant psychotic icon of industrious ingenuity, rampant contradiction, and cruel philosophical wit. That being said, here's the bottom line: the first movie was undeniably great, the rest were...eh, letdowns. The novelty, for me at least, was contained within the frames of the first flick only.

Continue reading Zac Efron vs. Jigsaw: Who will win the bloody box-office battle?

Zac Efron vs. Jigsaw: Who will win the bloody box-office battle? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.