It has been five weeks since I posted Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. The results of buying into the following pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak has been tremendous. The over all return has has been 26.3% with eight stocks up and two down.

For investors this might have been too speculative; for traders, they are probably grinning from ear to ear. For me -- we will see where we stand next year. As one of my colleagues reminded me, this is the real test, although I think there is reason for optimism.

The leader of the pack was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI), up 228%. In the absence of that gain the appreciation would have only been 3.5%. That beats all the indices but is not as dramatic.

• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) -- $18.45 down 63% from its 52 week high of $49.90; closed yesterday at $19.11, UP 3.57%
  
• Lehman Br Holdings (NYSE: LEH) -- $16.88 down 75% from its 52 week high of $67.73; closed yesterday at $16.13, down 4.44%
• Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) -- $26.25 down 67% from its 52 week high of $79.72; closed yesterday at $27.75, UP 5.7%.
• MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) -- $4.92 down 93% from its 52 week high of $68.98; closed yesterday at $16.14, UP 228%.
• E*TRADE (NASDAQ: ETFC) -- $3.06 down 84% from its 52 week high of $19.39; closed yesterday at $3.25, UP 6.2.
• East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) -- $12.46 down 67% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $13.01, UP 4.4%.
• Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK) -- $6.72 down 77% from its 52 week high of $29.45; closed yesterday at $6.80, UP 1.2%.
• Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) -- $5.88 down 72% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $6.89, UP 17.18%.
• Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) -- $15.70 down 70% from its 52 week high of $53.10; closed yesterday at $16.65, UP 6%.
• Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) -- $4.43 down 89% from its 52 week high of $39.48; closed yesterday at $4.24, down 4.29%

In my original post I emphasized that you had to buy the pool for safety. During the last month, we have seen many stories about Lehman Brothers' demise or the collapse of a major bank like WaMu or Wachovia, and if that had happened the gains in MBIA would have made up for the total and complete collapse of any one of them. I have no reason to believe this is immanent. I do have reason to believe the opposite. During the last month I bought additional shares of WaMu, one of the two down stocks at $3.50 per share.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI, NCT & WM.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 225, so I decided to peg the financial stocks I wrote about investing in as a pool. We are often accused of bragging on the good days and having memory loss on the bad so I wanted to be transparent and forthright on the downside.

To my surprise the financial stock pool is actually up 9.96% on average. Six stocks increased in value, two were down and two stocks were even money. The big winner was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) up over 68%!

In the same time frame the DJIA has gone from 11,397.56 to 11,431.43 (even) and the S&P has gone from 1263.2 to 1266.06 last night, for basically no change either.

The market is rebounding as I write so I expect the news is even better. Although, this pool of stocks beat the market so far in the short run, I hope to track this group for a year, or at least until Major League Baseball's spring training opens in 2009.

If you want to track the story with me the first post was Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. I remain stubbornly optimistic that this is a buying opportunity and investors will be sorry they did not have the courage to buy stocks when they were hated. The follow-up was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials

The initial prices are as of July 29, 2008.

After the market closed last night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding from Monday's notable drop and ending the trading day at 11,397.56, up 266.48 (+2.39%), I posted Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. This is the follow-up post listing the full pool of speculative stocks that as a group I believe will beat the overall market in the next 12 months.

The prediction business is thankless and the speculative business is even worse; it is often painful. I usually refrain from this activity but today I play the contrarian in a Sir John Templeton (RIP) sort of way, jumping into the stock market's worst performing sector with both feet. I believe the market is at or near a bottom and this summer is the time to buy.

Looking for a break in the clouds, yesterday I started choosing ten stocks knowing that three or four may go to zero, a few more will survive with modest gains, and three or four will rise, not returning to their old glory soon but more than covering the ones that fail. The first four picks have been bleeding all over Wall Street for a year now and the blood-letting is not done yet.

Initially I was looking for stocks that had fallen at least 70%. After reviewing my figures, I have compromised and changed that to 63% so that I could include some of the major companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that are broadly held and have strong reader interest. Prices are as of July 29, 2008.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The medical supplies and devices sector, East West Bancorp, Tempur Pedic and AbitibiBowater were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Credit Suisse initiated the medical supplies and devices sector with a Market Weight rating and started shares of Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) and Becton, Dickinson and Co (NYSE: BDX) with Outperform ratings and Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) with Neutral ratings.
  
• East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $36 target at B. Riley; the firm's target implies a 23.1% potential total return over the next twelve months including the stock's 1.35% dividend yield.
  
• Tempur Pedic (NYSE: TPX) was started with an Outperform rating at William Blair, as they find the current valuation attractive for long-term investor given the company's strong position in the specialty sleep products.
  
• Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) with a Hold rating and $29 target, citing the strength of the Canadian dollar and difficult newsprint fundamentals.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Banc of America initiated shares of JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) with Buy ratings and targets of $73 and $76, and initiated Horizon Lines (NYSE: HRZ) and Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) with Neutral ratings and targets of $34 and $14.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The environmental services sector, the machinery and capital goods sector and several bank holding companies were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Credit Suisse initiated shares of Allied Waste Industries Inc (NYSE: AW), Republic Services Inc (NYSE: RSG) and Waste Management Inc (NYSE: WMI) with Outperform ratings and a $16 target, $35 target and $45 target, respectively.
• Bernstein initiated the machinery and capital goods sector, initiating shares of Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) and Illinois Tool Works Inc (NYSE: ITW) with Outperform ratings and a $100 target and $68 target, respectively and Deere & Company (NYSE: DE), Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN), Ingersoll-Rand Company Ltd (NYSE: IR) and Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE: PH) with Market Perform ratings.
• Sandler initiated shares of Preferred Bank Los Angeles CA (NASDAQ: PFBC) and UCBH Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: UCBH) with Buy ratings and shares of Cathay General Bancorp (NASDAQ: CATY) and East West Bancorp, Inc (NASDAQ: EWBC) with Hold ratings.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Golfsmith International Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: GOLF) was initiated at Wedbush with a Buy rating and $8.75 target, as the firm believes the company is an attractive growth story and buyout candidate.
• Pharmasset Inc (NASDAQ: VRUS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $12 target at Banc of America, as the firm believes Clevudine has the potential to be best in class for the treatment of the hepatitis B virus.
• Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $40 target at Piper Jaffray.