Paul Krugman's New York Times op-ed tries to defend his Princeton colleague, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Krugman suggests that inflation is not a problem because he can't find any long-term labor contracts with 11% annual pay increases as in 1981's United Mine Workers contract.
Krugman gets himself into a weak position and he does not disclose his fealty to Bernanke whom he evidently does not believe can defend himself. It seems absurd to pretend that inflation is not a problem. Food prices have tripled and oil prices have doubled as Bernanke cut the Fed funds rate from 5.25% to 2%. Last week Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) announced a 20% price increase as did Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) in response to rising oil and other commodity prices. Huntsman Chemical (NYSE: HUN) announced a 25% price increase. And consumers -- who account for 70% of GDP growth -- expect inflation to rise at a rate of 7.7%.
Shares of the top maker of photographic film, Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK), have been tumbling in morning trading after putting up less than impressive earnings.
The company was not able to come in above analyst estimates, despite the fact that its loss narrowed to $115 million, or 40 cents a share in the first-quarter. Compared to its first period last year, its quarterly numbers showed a nice rebound, as the company reported a much higher loss of 53 cents a share last year.The photography products maker improved its performance on digital photography products and services, but this was not enough to offset higher silver and aluminum cost and increased spending on its inkjet printer business.
Going into today's earnings report Wall Street had been looking to see the company show Q1 loss of 3 cents a share. Excluding one-time items, the company stated that it loss came in at 39 cents a share, far more than the loss that analysts predicted. So with the actual numbers, Eastman Kodak is looking for a pretty bad day in today's session.
After hitting a one-year high of $30.20 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $16.66 last week. This morning, EK opened at $20.54. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.85 and a high of $20.91. As of 11:05, EK is trading at $19.88, down $0.57 (-2.8%). The chart for EK looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in 2 months as long as EK is below 22.50 at March expiration. Kodak would have to rise by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER), under intense pressure from billions of dollars of mortgage write-downs may get about a $5B capital investment from Temasek Holdings, a Singapore state-owned investment firm, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The WSJ also reported that the SEC is investigating how Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM) handled and reported on mortgage loans which may have been based on inflated home appraisals.
WEB SITES:
BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street," Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) is looking to transform from a pariah on the Street into success. The number one photography company has been restructuring since 2003, and analysts expect to see strong profitability and cash flow in 2008.
Aldabra 2 Acquisition Corp (AMEX: AII) may be another success story, BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" noted, particularly if it gets a boost in output and "possible listing on the Big Board."
Analysts are bullish on Inspire Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ISPH), BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" reported, which has conjunctivitis drug AzaSite on the market and several drugs in its pipeline. AzaSite sales are expected to come in around $45M next year, but the company could grow further with its cystic fibrosis drug Denufosol, now in phase III trials.
As Brent Archer recently wrote, Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) has been one of the most visible sponsors of the Olympic games for years, but it's a partnership that's coming to an end. After the Beijing games in 2008, Kodak will no longer pay the $50 million plus per Olympiad to be the official film and imaging sponsor.
Shares of Kodak have been terrible performers over the past decade as the company faces increased competition in the digital age. The Street appears to approve of dropping the Olympics, and the stock was up more than 5% on the news.
And maybe it is a sensible cost-cutting move -- cost-cutting moves nearly always send a company's share price up. Movie Gallery (NASDAQ: MOVI) soared last month after the rental-chain announced it was closing 13% of its stores, only to tank when bankruptcy rumors emerged on Friday.
Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) announced this morning that it will end its Olympic sponsorship following the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing, as they reassess their marketing and attempt to move in a new direction. EK is moving significantly higher today on this news and not much else, so it looks like investors are happy with this move. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on EK.
After hitting a one-year high of $30.20 in June, the stock has up and down sharply within a $2-dollar range over the past three months. EK opened this morning at $27.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.18 and a high of $28.44. As of 10:45, EK is trading at $28.20, up $1.16 (4.3%). The chart for EK looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just 5 weeks as long as EK is above $25 at November expiration. Kodak would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.
EK hasn't been below $25 since June and has shown support around $27 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 11/1) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by strong support between $25 and $27, where EK has bottomed throughout the past three months. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) has introduced another technology that demonstrates why the company often out-flanks rivals. The new product, which is free, allows mobile PC users to print documents on almost any printer. According toThe New York Times, the system is called "Cloudprint".
The feature uses server-based software run on hardware owned and operated by HP. The Times writes that :"The service requires users to first "print" their documents to H.P. servers connected to the Internet. The system then assigns them a document code, and transmits that code to a cellphone, making it possible to retrieve and print the documents from any location." HP hopes the service will drive printer and ink sales.
HP's printing and imaging group is critical to the company's success. According to the HP 10-Q, the division represents 27% of the company's annual revenue and will do almost $30 billion this year. The operation competes with Lexmark (NYSE: LXK), Canon (NYSE: CAJ), and Kodak (NYSE: EK) for market share in the huge global printer market.
The HP initiative is an example of how the company's innovation prowess is keeping it ahead of its competition, but it is also a sign that server-based applications are growing in importance. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is offering several server-based products including its document and spreadsheet products. The move is seen as a challenge to Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) which creates software the works primarily on individual PCs.
HPQ shares are up 80% over the last two years. but the company is not waiting for the competition to catch its breath.
Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. Analysts will look at Verizon's marketing strategy [particularly for FiOS], infrastructure improvements, and operating expenses. Above-average debt remains a blemish, but Wall Street will overlook that if Verizon registers impressive subscription and market share statistics, and demonstrates that its fiber optic-based FiOS Internet/TV network roll-out timetable for major markets remains on schedule.
Monster Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: MNST) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 10am. Monster is expected to register adequate, albeit decelerating revenue growth in Q2 compared to Q1, hence the grade for the company's performance may hinge on analysts' projection regarding the likely revenue scenario moving forward.
Tuesday July 31
Federal District Court Hearing to decided whether to approve the FTC's application for injunction blocking the proposed merger between Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Wild Oats Markets Inc (NASDAQ: OATS).
FDA 8am Gastrointestinal Drugs and Drug Safety and Risk Management Joint Advisory Committee Hearing on Biogen Inc's (NASDAQ: BIIB) Tysabri for Crohn's Disease.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 5pm. After recent sluggish stock performance, some analysts see Starbucks snapping back in the quarters ahead: Starbucks is expected to add a breakfast sandwich at 4,000 stores/coffee houses, which could increase per-store revenue by $70K annually.
Thursday August 2
Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11am. Note that the volatility in Kodak is elevated going into its earnings report.
Higher interest rate are making commercial real estate deal makers think twice about deals, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," sending shares of companies like Archstone-Smith Trust (NYSE: ASN) down from $64 to $60.75 a share.
The Financial Times reported that U.S. senators have proposed new laws that would impose higher taxes on private equity firms that list their shares on stock exchanges, a move that could be a blow to private-equity firm Blackstone Group, which is seeking to list its shares.
The U.S. and U.K. are working on a treaty that would allow Britain to buy American weapons without obtaining export licenses, the Financial Times reported; any deal on the issue could face opposition in the U.S. Congress, although the British believe eliminating the need for the licenses would expedite the arms purchasing process.
OTHER PAPERS:
Turnaround candidate Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) may be ready to shine, BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column reported, and now may be a good time to evaluate a potential EK play, according to investment advisor Gregory MacArthur.
Gateway Inc (NYSE: GTW) is selling products in China for the first time in a pilot program with Digital China Holdings Ltd, the LA Times reported.
According to The Nation, The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) is planning to ask its board of directors later this year for approval to invest in five petrochemical projects in Thailand.
Cementos Portland Valderribas, a unit of Fomento de Construcciones y Contractas is planning a bid for Texas Industries Inc (NYSE: TXI), the Expansion reports, citing people close to the situation.
Investment ideas were aplenty, following up on our Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference blog earlier. Some ideas worth noting are:
Bill Miller, despite being wrong on this investment since 1999, believes Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) will turnaround and is worth $45 per. As we have blogged in the past, the new CEO is very close to getting this business model to work, meaning this company could turn into a free cash flow machine.
Steve Mandel, formerly of Tiger Management and now running a fund at Lone Pine Capital, likes EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC), which was up big last week. In addition, he likes other large cap stocks such as General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS). He also has has postive comments on Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG).
Wilbur Ross is still pushing his commodities turnaround plays, in particular International Coal Group Inc (NYSE: ICO). Ross's thinking is as follows: Coal pricing should reach healthy levels as excess inventory is burned off. Coal will account for 57% of U.S. electricity generation, up from 50% today, in the next twenty five years. Appalachian coal, in which ICO is rich, has considerable pricing power since East Coast supply is limited and demand is strong.
The ideas were aplenty with some negative views on MBIA Incorporated (NYSE: MBI), betting against subprime mortgage exposure, and The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE), the northwestern Florida real estate company, which is running into some difficulty as the housing market slowdown continues.
Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) opened at $24.99. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.61 and a high of $25.05. As of 11:00, EK is trading at $24.98, down $0.09 (-0.4%).
After hitting a one year high of 27.57 in November, the stock has crept downward, with several brief rebounds over the past six months. Kodak sent out a press release touting new affordable ink cartridges yesterday, and today we could be seeing a snap back in the stock price after yesterday's gains. Recent technical indicators for EK have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $30 range. EK has not been above $30 since early 2005 and has shown resistance around $26. This trade could be risky if EK manages to transition to the digital age and regain lost market share, but even if this happens, the stock would have to rise by 20.5% before we would be in trouble.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the ..
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Crocs, Inc (CROX), Plantronics, Inc (PLT), MasterCard Inc (MA) and American Express Co (AXP) top Wednesday's noteworthy list:
JP Morgan started Crocs Inc (NASDAQ: CROX) with an Overweight rating based on the company's strong growth model.
JMP Securities upgraded Plantronics Inc (NYSE: PLT) with a Market Perform citing price competition and visibility in the speaker market.
MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was started with an Underweight rating at Thomas Weisel citing concerns regarding increased pressure from bank issuing partners regarding fees and reduced cross border pricing benefits. Additionally,
Thomas Weisel started American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) with an Overweight rating, expecting increased card issuance migration and merchant migration due to increased pressure on bank fees and increasing consumer demand for rewards...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Stifel started Microsemi Corp (NASDAQ: MSCC) with a Buy rating and $28 target.
News Corp (NYSE: NWS) Interactive is close to finishing a deal to buy online photo-sharing site Photobucket for about $300 million. Photobucket is one of the largest properties on the internet with over 14.7 million unique visitors a month, according to NetRatings.
After the purchase of social network MySpace, News Corp went from an also-ran online to one of the largest internet networks. The company also has sites for its news organization and studio. Photobucket makes that footprint much bigger.
Photobucket supplies many of the photos loaded onto MySpace. As a matter of fact, it would appear that the two sites have a large number of unique visitors in common, which could have pushed the value of Photobucket's audience down a bit during the bidding. Duplicate audience is not usually worth as much as visitors who are completely unique. But, Photobucket is also a large video sharing site, so News Corp picks up a competitor to YouTube.
The large questions raised by the purchase is where companies like Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) were? Yahoo! has an online photo business, but with the company's problems it would seem that adding to that strategic part of its business would have made sense. Meanwhile, Kodak is struggling to move to a digital photo market. It has an online photo-sharing site, but picking up one of the largest sites in the industry might have helped the company with its turnaround.
It seems that Mr. Murdoch and the management at Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) are the only buyers with any stones.
Earnings continue going strong, and a host of important shareholder meetings also take place this week.
Monday May 7
SEC to hold Open Commission Meeting at 9am
McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 5pm. Analysts will concentrate on McKesson's pharmaceutical solutions revenue, new distribution clients/new business, new IT solutions introduced, labor/benefits costs, operating expenses, sector position by business line, and margins.
Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 5pm. Investors will look for comments on how the company is integrating its game line-up onto the three new game systems -- PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii.
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) will hold a two-day capital markets meeting in Stockholm.
Thursday May 10
Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. In addition to motion picture results, analysts will focus on VIA's broadcast advertising revenue, and the company's efforts to broaden its relatively-tight-demogaphic cable television audience.
Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) to hold a shareholder meeting at 5pm in Mountain View.
Friday May 11
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. Analysts will concentrate of AIG's overall premium growth for its property/casualty unit, along with improved cost controls company-wide -- a pivotal factor for a superior performance, moving forward.
While you've been busy scouring over this week's earnings reports, back here at rumor central there's been a number of "head ups," but not all that much to write home about, or to send you phoning your broker. But take note of these just for the heck of it.
It's not news that the world's largest rental company has been for sale for a couple of weeks, but once again, as it is for so many speculative situations as this, there's an ongoing undercurrent of chatter. The CEO is retiring in June, and the COO will then hold down the fort. UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) are offering advice. The company's in pretty good shape, and should attract some interesting offers. The stock keeps ticking slowly upward. But the rental market has slowed some. Stay tuned. EASTMAN KODAK COMPANY (NYSE: EK)
The stock's been moving on up. Take over? Cash infusion? Fabulous new product release? Not one of us outsiders knows for sure what's up. So, what is up? Well, they sold the health imaging business and should get paid its $2.35B soon. Is Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) a potential merger partner? Maybe, maybe not. Last month it was reported that Kodak had eyes for OmniVision Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI). Maybe after quarterly results are released May 4 there'll be a clearer Kodak moment. Just don't count on them to try and rejoin the Better Business Bureau anytime soon. Now there's a rumor. CUMMINS INC (NYSE: CMI)
Shares hit a record high the other day, at least one brokerage firm upgraded the stock, and reports were that the engine maker was...you guessed it...the target of takeover "expectations." Is that like, expecting? Like expecting to be courted and bought? Fiat (NYSE: FIA) could be expecting cause they are among the "rumored" to want to expand their truck division in good old North America. Cummins, one of the few remaining independents worldwide, meanwhile has been humming along, with three straight years of record earnings. What a machine, eh? Hmmm.
Paul Krugman's New York Times op-ed tries to defend his Princeton colleague, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Krugman suggests that inflation is not a problem because he can't find any long-term labor contracts with 11% annual pay increases as in 1981's United Mine Workers contract.
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