Two questions of macroeconomic importance for investors and executives alike? How deep will the U.S. recession be, and how much fiscal stimulus will be needed to get the economy on a sustainable growth track?
On the first, the recession will not be mild if case precedent holds, particularly if the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) weekly leading index is predictive. The index fell to a record-low -29.2% last week from -28.2% registered earlier in the month. It was the index's lowest reading since 1949.
A turn in the ECRI's leading index would suggest that the U.S. economic cycle has bottomed, so says economist David H. Wang. So far, there's little indication of a turn.
On the policy front, a consensus appears to be forming that the Obama Administration's fiscal stimulus package should be upwards of $400-500 billion. If that's the case, it would please Wang.
"Given the amount of wealth and income taken out of the economy by the decline in housing and stock prices and job lay-offs, we will need a stimulus of at least $500 billion to counteract the major contraction forces affecting the economy," Wang said. "And the more concentrated the stimulus, from a time standpoint, the better. A $500 billion infusion over three months would create more GDP bang for the buck than two $250 billion packages spread over five or six months."
On the first, the recession will not be mild if case precedent holds, particularly if the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) weekly leading index is predictive. The index fell to a record-low -29.2% last week from -28.2% registered earlier in the month. It was the index's lowest reading since 1949.
A turn in the ECRI's leading index would suggest that the U.S. economic cycle has bottomed, so says economist David H. Wang. So far, there's little indication of a turn.
On the policy front, a consensus appears to be forming that the Obama Administration's fiscal stimulus package should be upwards of $400-500 billion. If that's the case, it would please Wang.
"Given the amount of wealth and income taken out of the economy by the decline in housing and stock prices and job lay-offs, we will need a stimulus of at least $500 billion to counteract the major contraction forces affecting the economy," Wang said. "And the more concentrated the stimulus, from a time standpoint, the better. A $500 billion infusion over three months would create more GDP bang for the buck than two $250 billion packages spread over five or six months."
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