Paulson's job growth forecast may underperform, economists' survey says

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 23 May 2008 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Bad News, Employees, Recession

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's prediction that the 2008 tax rebate will create 500,000 jobs may come up a tad short, if a Bloomberg News survey is telling.

The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecasts a stimulus package-induced job increase on 158,500 -- far short of Paulson's forecast, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Paulson and other Bush Administration officials are hopeful the stimulus package will create jobs both directly and via spin-off effect -- for example, jobs created in manufacturing when goods are purchased; and jobs created in feeder industries to the manufacturing sector, etc.

The administration views the tax cut as intrinsic to jump-starting a U.S. economy slowed to a crawl (or perhaps already in negative growth) by its worst housing recession in more than 15 years, and by record-high oil and gasoline prices. (Oil traded Friday up $2.21 to $133.02 per barrel. Oil is up about 100% in 12 months.)

Economic Analysis: Analysts and economists vary regarding the tax rebate's job creation potential, and the 158.5K Bloomberg survey estimate is most likely on the mark. It's possible the tax rebate could create 500,000 new jobs, but the U.S. economy would have to experience an extraordinary boost in GDP growth in 2H 2008. The more likely scenario: only modest GDP growth in 2H 2008, which will make the Bush Administration the first administration to preside over a net drop in payrolls since the Eisenhower Administration in 1960, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Paulson's job growth forecast may underperform, economists' survey says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 23 May 2008 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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U.S. fiscal policy stimulus for the digital age

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 08 May 2008 15:20:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Federal Reserve, Recession

When one travels in economists' circles, one tends to tap into the issues, controversies and policy ideas 'dismal science' practitioners are debating.

And one issue economists have rattled around concerns the speed of fiscal policy stimulus, or more accurately, the lack thereof. In the digital age, the internet has propelled a host of speed-enhancing changes, and it occurred to this group of economists that U.S. Government policy is decidedly behind the curve in this area.

Here's why: economist David H. Wang noted that the U.S., in an attempt to jump-start its economy stalled by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years, has implemented a host of monetary policy changes to provide monetary stimulus quicker. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interests multiple times during a 10-week span (and later implemented additional rate cuts), and devised two, new, Fed-administered institutions to address the credit crisis, provide liquidity, and ensure the orderly operation of financial markets.

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U.S. fiscal policy stimulus for the digital age originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 May 2008 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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