Best wishes to all and, next to world peace among people, we should hope for the same among world markets.

I have let some time pass before commenting on a recent example of how fragile a world we live in. This past year through a time of greater economic danger, fear and volatility than most of us has experienced in a life time, many people cannot fathom how close we came to the edge of Hades.

Export orders were on the rise in October in China, suggesting a strengthening recovery and an opportunity to cut back on stimulus spending. The manufacturing measure grew at its fastest rate in the past year and a half, according to the HSBC (NYSE: HBC) purchasing managers' index. It increased to a seasonally adjusted 55.4 from 55 in September.

If you're looking for a reason behind the gain, it's all in the flow of capital. In addition to the government's economic stimulus package, $1.27 trillion in new loans were written to help deliver the country from the global financial crisis.

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

Consumer spending may be down, but its share of U.S. economic activity has increased. So, we're now more dependent than before on the average Joe's open wallet to guide us out of the recession. A year ago, consumer spending accounted for 70% of the U.S. economy. Since then, it has edged up to 71%. The long-term average is approximately 65%.

The increase in consumer spending's share of the economy indicates that other sectors fell harder. Business and construction spending on new equipment have constricted at a record rate since 2008. This isn't unusual, though, as consumer spending tends to take a larger piece of the economic pie during downturns.