Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

Work smarter not harder. Do more with less. Increase your output. Become more productive.

You've heard all this before, right? What it all means is that layoffs are coming, and the survivors are going to have to take on a hell of a lot more work, with no increase in support, resources or compensation. As cuts come, the survivors fight to survive, and succeeding means that a new benchmark is set. If you can survive without the help you used to have, it's easier to defer hiring for a while.

You're now free to invest in Iceland ... should you be so inclined. On Sunday, the country will begin lifting its post-financial disaster capital controls, giving investors a bit more elbow room. Foreign currency investments coming in won't be subject to the existing controls.

According to a statement released by Iceland's central bank, "Investors are authorized, without restrictions, to convert into foreign currency the sales proceeds from assets in which they invest after Nov.1." The statement also said, "Previously, non-residents were fully authorized to transfer foreign currency deriving from interest and dividends on investments in Iceland."

Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

The Chicago Federal Reserve has an index of economic activity for the region. In September, the index weakened. It stood at a minus 0.81, down from a minus 0.65 in August and a minus 0.90 the previous month.

A reading at zero or above indicates expansion in economic activity. Unfortunately, these readings show that the region is still in a deep recession.

The Chicago Fed uses a three month moving average to smooth out the raw numbers. Using that average, the reading for September was a minus 0.63, and a minus 0.96 in August.

Economist and president of a research firm that bears his name, Andrew Smithers (not related to the Smithers of Mr. Burns fame) is saying our on-fire stock market is set to burn itself out. The S&P 500 Index is overvalued by 40%, he believes, and we can expect a plunge thanks to central bankers restraining themselves on the securities purchases that have pushed the markets up so far so fast. Also, banks are going to need to sell more shares to raise capital and pump up their balance sheets.

If the S&P 500 were to take a 40% dive today, it would fall to 647.76 (based on the Friday close), below the low it recorded in March.

What is the Beige Book and what does it contain? The US Federal Reserve keeps anecdotal reports on the economy in what is called the "Beige Book." Here are some notes on the key topics:

• There was some improvement in two of the hardest hit areas -- residential real estate and manufacturing.
• Gains in economic activity generally outnumbered declines.
• "Grim" was how the Fed described commercial real estate, "with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all districts." Regional banks said they did not see improvement in commercial real estate going forward into 2010.

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

Australia, on Tuesday, became the first of the G-20 nations to hike interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate from a 49-year low of 3% a quarter point to 3.25%.

As you might guess, the Australian dollar surged to a 14-month high against the U.S. dollar, trading at $0.8868 against its U.S. counterpart.