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Allied Capital unit files for bankruptcy -- blame the shorts?

Problems at Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) -- the target of short seller David Einhorn's book Fooling Some of the People All of the Time -- continued yesterday with the announcement that one of its portfolio companies, Ciena Capital LLC had filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Ciena's predecessor company -- Business Loan Express -- is under fire from federal prosecutors who allege that the company participated in deals designed to defraud the United States government.

What's so interesting about this mess is that a) If you read Einhorn's book, he pointed out serious problems at Business Loan Express far before Ciena was admitting to them, and b) The SEC appears to have completely dropped the ball on this case, resulting in substantial losses to investors.

It's also interesting to note that Overstock (NASDAQ: OSTK) CEO Patrick Byrne's self-proclaimed investigative journalism site DeepCapture, which serves mainly to attack anyone who criticizes Byrne's company or his ideas, has been rallying to Allied's defense in recent months. One of the site's reporters, Mark Mitchell described (PDF) Allied, Overstock, and Novastar Financial as "victims" of a supposed conspiracy of hedge funds and corrupt reporters hell bent on destroying them.

With the Allied mess unfolding much as Einhorn predicted and Novastar on the brink of bankruptcy in the wake of numerous investigations and revelations of shoddy lending practices, it's bad news for Dr. Byrne if Overstock is to be judged by the company it keeps.

Spooky shortsellers spreading rumor and innuendo?

A DealBook piece looks at David Einhorn's very public battles with Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) and Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH), both of which he is short and accused of accounting chicanery. Einhorn's willingness to "talk his book" has generated controversy. Steven Davidoff writes that "Many short plays are enhanced through rumor and innuendo spread by those self-same shorts. Needless to say, these whispers are sometimes unfounded but can do real harm to a company's share price and the company itself."

In his email newsletter, fund manager Whitney Tilson slams this comment: "Hmmm... How many is "many"? More than one? A majority? 99% of the rumor and innuendo in the market I see is on the long side! The shorts I know, on the other hand, perhaps because they're often falsely accused of spreading "rumor and innuendo", bend over backwards to be open and factual."

This is exactly the point. What is the ratio of "pumps" to "bashes"? When Einhorn goes on CNBC and trashes a stock, it's a national story. That's because it's incredibly rare for anyone to go on CNBC and slam a company. The extent of the skepticism we usually hear in the financial media is "overvalued" or "tough prospects."

So I say to Einhorn and Co.: Keep doing what you're doing. Differing opinions, and especially unpopular ones, make for a better market.

Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile

Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) has approached a Korean sovereign wealth fund (SWF) about investing. But Lehman probably won't get the money it seeks. Reuters reports that Korean Investment Corp (KIC), an SWF that manages about $20 billion and is an investor in Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), is unlikely to invest in Lehman.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that investors on the Einhorn side of Lehman -- those hoping its stock will drop -- are increasing their wager. It notes that options traders increased their bearish positions to a two-month high yesterday. With one analyst expecting Lehman to report a second-quarter loss of 50 cents a share during the week of June 16, put option volume rose to 283,676 contracts, or quadruple the 20-day average, and bearish bets on the company exceeded bullish ones by 1.6-to-1.

As I mentioned during my talk at Stanford in April, SWFs have been burned by their investments in the U.S. finance industry. One of them, the Citic Group, was lucky it was able to bail out of its commitment to invest $1 billion in Bear Stearns. But that close call is likely to keep other SWFs from throwing good money after bad.

Continue reading Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile

Ben Stein: Perhaps the market isn't always right

The perceptive and common sense-rooted Ben Stein, in a business column in The New York Times, has weighed-in on the credit crisis, and for market absolutists, it's an argument they probably don't want to hear.

Stein, like many of us, has pondered how the massively well-paid men and women of Wall Street could create such a catastrophe. How did some of the smartest, talented executives, Stein ruminates, generate such immense losses that "they made banks clam up on lending -- at great risk to the economy?"

Compelling questions

Stein asks: Where were the fail-safe devices? The government watchdogs? The ratings agencies? A speech by Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn at a Grant's Interest Rate Observer event, provided the answers -- the unfortunate truths of the recent housing/credit boom -- which Stein summarized:

Continue reading Ben Stein: Perhaps the market isn't always right

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 06:36 PM

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