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Does the recession mean women are going au naturale?

Elizabeth Arden's (NASDAQ: RDEN) stock has been shellacked in the last couple of days, continuing a decline that began shortly after it reached a 52-week high of $21.79 in September 2008. RDEN has reached a nine-year low in price at $5.95.

The recent action in the stock should come as no surprise. With retail sales continuing to sour and mall traffic becoming more like Sunday services attendance on a beautiful summer day, it could hardly come as news that Elizabeth Arden would issue a negative earnings alert ahead of the company's second-quarter release of financial results scheduled for Friday.

Cosmetics and fragrances are some of the most discretionary of purchases with the widest range of price points. Consumers have the option of purchasing a less expensive brand or delaying the purchase until a better time. As a result, cosmetic products have reached a historically peak inventory level.

For Elizabeth Arden, those inventory numbers are further evidence of the earnings stress facing the company.

Continue reading Does the recession mean women are going au naturale?

Analyst downgrades: KO, PEP, BOBJ, COGN and COO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Business Objects, Cognos and Cooper Companies were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they believe shares reflect prospects for growth.
  • Business Objects (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS following the acquisition by SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) and to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, as the firm finds the acquisition price fair and does not expect a counter-bid. Soleil believes the SAP offer is reflected in the stock price, and downgraded Business Objects to Hold from Buy.
  • Roth Capital downgraded shares of Cognos (NASDAQ: COGN) to Hold from Buy based on recent share appreciation as shares capture a vast majority of a potential takeover bid; Goldman downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy and Jefferies downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • JP Morgan lowered shares of Cooper Companies (NYSE: COO) to Underweight from Neutral. The firm believes Street estimates are too high given a negative mix shift in the company's contact lens business, which could lead to a FY08 EPS shortfall.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Revlon Q1 earnings preview

Revlon Inc (NYSE: REV) is going to be releasing its first quarter numbers tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see the cosmetic maker post a small loss for the quarter of -$0.07 (edited, originally posted stating est. was -0.01) per share when the numbers are released.

Last week we saw two of Revlon's competitors put up good earnings, so hopefully this is a good indicator that this could be the quarter for Revlon to break out of its recent tough times. On Thursday both Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN) and Lauder (Estee) Co (NYSE: EL) were able to see a nice move up in the market following their recent quarterly numbers.

If Revlon can follow the lead of ARDN and EL, the stock may finally be able to see some upside. REV is currently trading at $1.30 and has been stuck right around this level for the last nine months. The last three quarters Revlon has posted losses and the company could definitely use a dose of positive news to help it break out from its current range.

Last month Revlon added a couple of high-profile celebrities to its list of brand representatives. On April 20th the company announced that it had signed actress Beau Garrett, and then on the 23rd announced that it had added one of the hottest names in Hollywood, Jessica Alba, to the Revlon family. Garrett and Alba join a roster of elite celebrities that includes names such as Halle Berry, Sheryl Crow, and Eva Mendes.

The company will announce its earnings before the market opens tomorrow and will host a conference call starting at 9:30 AM EDT to discuss its quarterly results. We will be liveblogging tomorrow's conference call in its entirety, so join us tomorrow morning for complete coverage of the call.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Newspaper wrap-up 2-16-07: Google buys Adscape

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column focused on Credit Suisse Group's (NYSE: CS) new CEO, Brady Dougan, saying the company chose him to hold a steady course, avoiding periods of high revenues followed by crashes.
  • Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" column wrote that Elizabeth Arden Inc (NASDAQ: RDEN) trades at a discount to its industry and the broader market, and looks enticing at current levels.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column reported that AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines, is a buyout target of a group that includes the Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS).
  • The New York Times reported that Congress has reintroduced legislation to allow the federal government to further regulate the tobacco industry by cracking down on marketing aimed at young people.
  • The New York Times also reported that Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer said Wall Street analysts are being too optimistic about sales of Windows Vista.
  • According to the Red Herring, Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) has acquired Adscape for $23 million.

Target and Kohl's 'cheap chic' brings couture to all

This WSJ article, which forecasts how cheap chic will stay chic and trendy, is definitely good news for savvy and fashion conscious consumers, like me.

Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) revolutionized its discount warehouse image with a trendy advertising campaign, and more importantly, added the Isaac Mizrahi line of affordable designer apparel for women, sold exclusively at Target stores. And so the love affair began ...

Now Vera Wang will be adding her own line of thrifty chic to the Kohl's Corp. (NYSE:KSS) stores, and Gwen Stefani will be expanding her L.A.M.B. line to include fragrances to be sold by Coty Inc.

Vera Wang, who currently is unparalleled when it comes to wedding-gown lines, will be offering her chic dress designs for Kohl's customers at a mere $69. I cannot imagine this line line not selling, and well at that. Gwen Stefani, who is intensely popular with tweens, teenagers, and hipsters, has had a Midas touch effect on everything from pop music to culture and clothes. Her fragrance will surely outdo the sales of Britney Spears' "Curious" or Danielle Steel's "Danielle," both trademark Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ:RDEN) products.

Continue reading Target and Kohl's 'cheap chic' brings couture to all

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 09:20 AM

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