"The stock market is poised to complete the bear market rally from March," says Steven Hochberg, technical expert and editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Here's his bearish call.

"On April 2, we forecast a rally that would carry the Dow to 9,000-10,000 and the S&P 500 to 1000. These levels have now been met.

"We felt this price target would represent a respectable place to exit long positions. But we know from past experience that many will hold out for even higher prices.

Continue reading Elliott wave: Technical theory says 'sell'

Elliott wave: Technical theory says 'sell' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Despite a strongly bearish long-term outlook, technicians Stephen Hochberg and Robert Prechter continue to see near-term upside for the market.

In The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a specialty service focused on a form of technical analyst known as Elliott wave theory, they explain, "Optimism is definitely on the increase, but it is not yet as the exteme that typically accompanies the end of a Primary degree rally.

"So notwithstanding near-term gyrations, the Dow should rise to the initial target, which remains in the 9,000 to 10,000 range.

Continue reading Elliott wave still rising: A technical outlook

Elliott wave still rising: A technical outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Steve Hochberg believes the market is now in the process of forming a major long-term top. Here is his bearish outlook from the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

"Last January, we forecast that 2007 would be the year of the 'financial flameout'. And while the financial sector is down sharply, we believe this is still just the downpayment on the sector's full decline, which will last at least the next few years.

"From 1980 to 1999, we saw a simulataneous rise in the Dow in terms of dollars (nominal), gold (real) and commodities (purchasing power). This advance signified real gains for investors. The market's topping process started in late 1999 when the Dow peaked in terms of real money and purchasing power.

The Dow's rise since 2002, however, occurred only in dollar terms. The Dow's new nominal high does not represent an increase in purchasing power nor a rise in real money. In fact, it is just the opposite, as the Dow denominated in denominated in each of these assets classes has been crashing.

Continue reading Elliott Wave warns: 'Bear market ahead'

Elliott Wave warns: 'Bear market ahead' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Feb 2008 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The big plunge is under way," says Pete Kendall, co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and a leading proponent of a deflationary, bear market outlook.

He suggests, "A flight from risk has been seeping into the markets for some time. And it's accelerating now." Here's his bearish outlook on stock as well as his forecast for bonds and the U.S. dollar.

Kendall notes, "How quickly investors forget! Wasn't it really just a few weeks ago that KKR's Henry Kravis told a conference of investment bankers, 'The private equity world is in its golden era right now. The stars are aligned.'"

Indeed, Kendall adds, "At the time, we agreed that stars were aligning, but in a different way. We have been forecasting a new era that would crush the over-extended hedge funds and investment banks."

The notably bearish advisor states, "It's all part of the unfolding flight from financial risk. Most people still have almost no idea just how risky these markets are. They will find out in the weeks and months ahead."

Continue reading Elliott Wave sees bear market ahead

Elliott Wave sees bear market ahead originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I've just returned from the World Money Show in Orlando where more than 10,000 investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the U.S. and foreign financial experts featured at the show, and over the next week I will share some of their more intriguing ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

Among the most bearish of the advisors at the World Money Show was Steven Hochberg, who says "Amidst a unanimous call by analysts for a 2007 market advance, the blue chip indexes are tracing out their final rally."

I would note that many investors are averse to reading bearish commentary. On the contrary, I would argue that all investors -- no matter how bullish -- are well-served by understanding and considering the arguments made by those who disagree.

Here, the editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, cautions, "The pending downturn should be accompanied by a major financial sector reversal, which is expected to be the last straw in a long-term, global topping process." Here's his bearish reasoning.

"One of the legacies of the bull market that began in December 1974 and ended in January 2000 is the conviction that speculation and financial engineering are enduring and self-sustaining engines of economic growth. From 1974 to the third quarter of 2006, financial assets held by Wall Street firms soared from 1.3% to 20.5% of GDP.

"The rate of ascent is even faster than the Fed shows, because their figures do not include hedge fund assets, which are estimated to have hit $2 trillion in November. Including this figure raises Wall Street's total assets to a mind-boggling 36.6% of GDP.

Continue reading Global gains: Advisor warns of a global bear

Global gains: Advisor warns of a global bear originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 18 Feb 2007 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

For both of their top picks for 2007, Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall look to ETFs -- the iShares Lehman 1-3 year Treasury Bond Fund (ASE: SHY) for conservative investors and a short position in the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund (NYSE: IJR) as a speculation.

The co-editors of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast explain, "Stock prices have been crashing since 1999 in terms of real money, a fact of which nine out of ten people are unaware. From 1980 to 1999, stocks rose in terms of paper dollars, gold, and commodities. Since 1999, a historic shift out of stocks and into hard cash or 'things' has been underway.

"Relative to gold, the Dow is down 56% and the NASDAQ is off 78%, with new lows made this year. Similar stock market behavior occurred from 1966 to 1980, a time period that included a decline of 50% in the S&P 500 index.

"The Dow is at a new high in nominal terms due to credit inflation, which has allowed the index to stay up because the measuring unit (the dollar) is falling. Historically, whenever a discrepancy between the performance of the Dow in real terms and the Dow in nominal terms develops, the Dow in nominal terms always plays catch up to the Dow in real terms.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Elliott experts ride the "wave"

Top Picks 2007: Elliott experts ride the "wave" originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Dec 2006 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.