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Is Pacific Ethanol ready to pop?

Remember that no politician in their right mind could try and jump in front of the pro-ethanol train. In doing so, they would risk losing the agricultural lobby, angering his constituents, and even being "less environmentally concerned" than the mighty George W. Bush. As a result of these factors, I'm going to leave the anti-ethanol arguments aside from here on and focus on how to profit from the seemingly imminent increase in the United States ethanol mandate. The pure-play on this is Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX).

Pacific Ethanol has certainly had its fair share of excitement. About a year and half ago, the ethanol frenzy was full-on and the stock quickly moved from $10 per share to $45 per share. However, like many irrational, bubble-like trading patterns, this move was proceeded by a fall back to the $12-20 range, a range the stock has been "stuck" in for the last year.

However, I think that an increase in the ethanol mandate is enough to send the stock out of its range, or at least to the top of its range. Due to the stock's significant short position at about 18% of the float, any piece of good news probably will cause a short squeeze, forcing shorts to cover their positions and run for the hills. When short squeezes occur, speculators tend to also buy the stock, thus forcing even more volatility upon the stock.

Continue reading Is Pacific Ethanol ready to pop?

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Last updated: May 26, 2012: 08:13 PM

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