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Schwab's bad advice about sector investing

My investment world leads me to deal with many brokers and I am constantly amazed at the bad advice that is so prevalent in the financial industry. I think many brokerage houses remain conflicted, try as they might to be otherwise.

Here is the latest example to reach my doorstep. We have personal assets with Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and they publish an in-house magazine for their clients called "onInvesting". In the summer 2009 issue listed under the heading of "Expert Insight" there is an article titled "How Sector Investing Can Work for You". I could not find a link to the story online. It is written by Brad Sorenson, CFA, director, Sector Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Continue reading Schwab's bad advice about sector investing

Today's technical outlook: Markets desperately seeking support

The S&P 500 double-bottom finally collapsed Feb. 27, after holding firm for more than four months. But the strong 800 to 820 support zone gave way several weeks before, led by the Dow Industrials, which cracked its support at 7,940 even before that.

The breakdown hit a plateau at the Dow 7,390 area, which also marked the market's low on Nov. 21. After several days of indecision, sellers drove stocks to new lows and the Dow headed for lower ground. So where do we go from here?

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Markets desperately seeking support

Chip sales fall 22% in December

Last week, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide semiconductor sales dropped to $17.4 billion from $22.3 billion in December, a drop of 22%. Compared to November, December's sales were 16.6% lower. For comparison, November 2007 chip sales fell only 10%.

SIA President George Scalise noted that weakened demand for automotive products, personal computers, cell phones, and corporate information technology products. However, Scalise said the largest revenue declines were "in the memory sector where price pressure more than offset significant growth in total bit shipments."

Continue reading Chip sales fall 22% in December

Gold is above $900 per ounce

Investors are always evaluating the landscape to determine where they should put their money. With all of the uncertainty in the banking sector, they are moving into gold. In Europe in particular, exchange traded funds increased their holdings to more than 40 million ounces. This has the effect of establishing a cushion under the market.

The spot "gold fix" in London reached an all-time high of $1030.80 per ounce. On the futures market, gold traded above $900.00 per ounce. Traders expect the price to consolidate at these levels and move a bit higher.

Continue reading Gold is above $900 per ounce

Another record for ETF volume during the market volatility: Coincidence?

The Nasdaq Stock Market announced Thursday that trading volume on ETFs reached a new record in September with an average daily trading volume of 785 million shares. That was part of a new record trading volume of 3.3 billion shares.

IndexUniverse says that ETFs now make up more than one-third of the U.S. market trading volume. They cite data from the National Stock Exchange , which says ETFs represented "a record 35% of all U.S. equity trading volume." That's up from 31% in August. Think about that: more than one-third of stock trades in America are for exchange traded funds.

Trim Tabs just came out with a report showing investors have been pulling money out of stock funds -- but throwing them into ETFs. Trim Tabs estimates investors took well over $40 billion out of all mutual funds in September, but meanwhile put about the same amount into ETFs. For the last 12 months, we've pulled $117 billion out of mutual funds and put $127 billion into ETFs.

For individual investors, the move makes sense. When the market is moving around like it has been, it's scary to be in a vehicle where you can only trade at the end of the day? But I can't imagine that all of that ETF volume isn't helping whip around the prices of the underlying shares.

ETF volumes have really taken off

Selected ETF Relative to NYSE Average Daily Volume After rising more or less in line with overall market volume for years, there has been a noticeable surge since the spring in the relative turnover of selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For the SPDR Trust Series 1 ETF (AMEX: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, the average daily volume (ADV) compared to New York Stock Exchange Composite ADV increased from 6.1% in April to 16.8% last month. For the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which emulates the Nasdaq-100 index, the numbers went from 6.3% to 14.1%. For the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (AMEX: IWM), which mirrors the small cap benchmark, relative turnover rose from 3.4% to 6.7%.

Although it's not clear whether the activity was related to hedging or outright position-taking -- or both -- the sharp increase in activity suggests that there has been an important change in the underlying dynamic of the U.S. equity market. If so, it raises some interesting questions.

Could this be a sign, for example, that the influence of hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, and other speculative operators is expanding dramatically? Are investors of all stripes becoming increasingly focused on ETFs as an investing vehicle? Does this emphasis on trading bundles of shares mean that more individual issues are "mispriced"?

Whatever the case, this is a trend worth paying attention to.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Why stocks may be poised for a (relative) comeback

A chart comparing the S&P 500 index to the MSCI EAFE index (a global benchmark comprised of stocks from Europe, Australia, and the Far East, which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (NYSE: EFA) ) points to a potentially significant shift in the relationship between U.S. and foreign equities.

That is, U.S. shares appear poised for a comeback, at least in relative terms.

Interestingly, this comes at a time when the world at large appears to be suffering from the consequences of a bursting U.S. housing bubble and a meltdown in the American subprime finance sector.

While it is too soon to say for sure, could this be a sign that U.S. investors are beginning to repatriate funds back home? Or that foreigners are reverting to past form with a knee-jerk move towards what has historically been seen as safer shores?

If so, foreign share markets may well suffer disproportionately in the wake of further unwelcome announcements and upheaval in global financial markets.

Some might say that's an ironic turn of events.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Are ETFs a good bet for income?

As exchange traded funds explode in popularity, investors are having a harder time finding bargains. According to Marketwatch, "In March, shares of closed-end funds covered by Lipper traded at a median discount of 2.34% to net asset value, the lowest level in 12 months. That level marked a 0.86 percentage-point decline from the end of February. During the one-year period ended March 31, the combined discount on closed-end funds declined by 4.29 percentage points."

However, the discount on exchange-traded bond funds has narrowed, meaning that many investors are looking for yield rather than capital appreciation right now. Investors should be careful about investing in ETFs for income, and evaluate them the same way you would evaluate a dividend-paying stock: Is the yield sustainable (What is the payout ratio? How will the payout be taxed?)

In many cases, I think some of the online high-yield savings accounts are the best bet for conservative income investing. They are safe, accessible, and provide yields of 5% and higher. Try ING Direct or Emigrant Direct.

Lowell's hot hands strategy: The #1 ETF for 2007

For the past two decades, Jim Lowell developed an industry-leading expertise in analyzing mutual funds, with a particular focus on Fidelity funds. During that time he developed an annual feature known as his "Hot Hands" pick.

He explains, "Those who have followed my Fidelity Investor newsletter know that one trick in our proprietary playbook has been buying the previous year's best performing Fidelity fund and sticking with it for the new year. More often than not it turns out to be a big winner."

Given the growing popularity of exchange-traded funds, Lowell recently launched a new service, The Forbes ETF Advisor. And for the first time, he is applying his Hot Hands approach to ETFs.

He cautions that this strategy has not beaten the market every year. However, he says, "It has provided very healthy long-term result and I believe that many growth-oriented investors could improve their performance by putting a reasonable (5% to 10%) portion of their money to work following my Hot Hands strategy."

He explains, "Here are the ground rules for the strategy. First I looked at all of the diversified ETFs for each year between 2000 and 2006. I excluded single-sector ETFs, and on the international side, I excluded the geographically nondiversified (single country) international ETFs.

Continue reading Lowell's hot hands strategy: The #1 ETF for 2007

If I had won $20 grand on the Super Bowl . . .

Please pardon me while I get a bit whimsical here. I get a prose bug from time to time. You must forgive me if this is light duty reading for such a well read crowd but I'm just having fun!
Submitted for the approval of our readers:

If I had bet upon the game and chance did let me win, let's say my take was twenty grand and now let us begin. I'd take ten grand right off the top and invest in GE (General Electric Company (NYSE:GE)). A stalwart and diverse keystone is paramount to me.

I'd next place 4k in the hands of Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) for care. It's hard to take a loss, my friend, in sexy underwear. And candles bright and fragrances and things the ladies like, assure me that our LTD is on an upward hike.

Two grand I'd sure send Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.'s (NYSE:WMT) way, though kicked around a lot. I just can't seem to shake the truth they'd be a safer spot.

Continue reading If I had won $20 grand on the Super Bowl . . .

Active ETFs and regular ETFs: which is the safer bet?

The Financial Times has a excellent series on Exchange-Traded Funds, an increasingly popular and often superior alternative to traditional mutual funds. In yesterday's article, the paper discussed active ETFs, which differ from the vast majority of ETFs in that they are not passively-managed mutual funds.


While the rise of actively-managed ETFs in inevitable, I think investors would do well to avoid them for the same reason that they should avoid traditional actively managed mutual funds: the expenses will be higher, the tax burden will be worse, and the fund managers will not do any better than the indexes, even before these expenses. The real strength of ETFs, in my opinion, is that they allow active investors to make macroeconomic bets. With traditional mutual funds, you can't trade during the day, and you may be charged a redemption fee if you hold the fund for less than a year.

I've been an ETF-evangelist on this site in several articles. But I was referring to passively-managed funds. If you decide to venture into the waters of actively-managed ETFs that's a whole other story.

Book Review: Gerald Appel's Opportunity Investing



I'm a little bit hesitant to write a review of Gerald Appel's latest book Opportunity Investing: How to profit when stocks advance, stocks decline...inflation runs rampant, prices fall, oil prices hit the roof...and every time in between. I consider myself a bottom-up fundamentals investor, and this essentially a book about investing based on macroeconomic trends with a lot of market timing information (but also some good background on economics). So I am probably not the target audience for this book.

That said, it's a pretty good guide to a style of investing that some will be more inclined to embrace than others. If you're a foreign policy junkie (you read The Economist, listen to All Things Considered, and enjoy the New York Times more than the Wall Street Journal), this is probably a book and a style of investing that will appeal to you.

The best thing about this book is that essentially presents a self-contained, one-volume source for a strategy of big picture investing. Chapters include "The Myth of Buy and Hold," "Putting Together a Winning Portfolio," "Income Investing," and sections about market timing (which is generally interspersed throughout the book), and exchange traded funds (for a terrific introduction to ETF's, check out Gerald Appel's son Martin Appel's book Investing with Exchange-Traded Funds Made Easy).

For a nice contrast, read this book along with the new edition of Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street, as the books seem to contradict each other on nearly every single point. Appel believes that market timing and the study of charts and historical returns hold the key to the bright elusive butterfly of market-beating returns (also know as Alpha, in the parlance). Gerald Appel and Burton Malkiel are two of the most articulate spokesmen for these two radically different schools of thought. A televised debate would be one of the most fascinating television specials of the year (to me anyway...perhaps not so much for the Desperate Housewives crowd).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 11:21 PM

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