Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

The Chinese government released trade data that portrays a $7.3 billion deficit. Is that believable or just convenient amid the international pressure to raise the value of their currency? We can hardly believe what comes out of Washington, so data coming out of China has to be quite suspect.

I'm sure they retained qualified independent auditors to ascertain the validity of the figures -- yeah right ...

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the world and competes with other major oil companies like BP (BP), Chesapeake (CHK), Anadarko (APC) and Chevron (CVX). We have a near $79 price estimate for the company. In its earnings announcement, the company highlighted its replacement rate for its oil and gas reserves.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the world and competes with other major oil companies like BP, Chesapeake, Anadarko and Chevron. In our recent article titled Sizing Up Egypt's Impact on Exxon, we tried to give an idea of Egypt's importance for Exxon Mobil and how the unrest in the country could affect its stock price. We also discussed how the situation in Libya forced BP to start evacuating its staff from the country in our article Unrest in Libya Could Jeopardize BP Exploration Deal. With the political unrest spreading to more countries over the past few weeks, this may be a bigger concern for Exxon Mobil and other oil & gas majors worldwide. We have a current price estimate of $78.97, which is about 10% below the market price.

Coca-Cola (KO) has more than $13 billion in cash.

The top five companies (according to market cap) are:

• Exxon Mobil (XOM): $398.3 billion
• Apple (AAPL): $309.0 billion
• Microsoft (MSFT): $237.5 billion
• General Electric (GE): $215.0 billion
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): $202.5 billion

A little over a week ago the chart players took short positions in the oil sector. Since then the world has changed dramatically.

Egypt is engulfed in a civil uprising and protesters are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Uncertainty is the new state of affairs. Uncertainty breeds fear and fear has taken over the energy sector.

The chart guys quickly covered their shorts and now the bulls have the market. This is fundamental. Three million barrels of oil a day pass through the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. You can throw the charts out the window.

Oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) is trading up nicely today after the company reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings this morning.

Before the market opened this morning, Exxon reported that it earned $1.85 for its fourth quarter, shattering analyst estimates for $1.63 per share.

"Nowhere is the supply and demand balance as tight as it is with oil; with the somewhat stronger economy here and abroad, the oil gap is closing again," says Jim Powell.

The editor of Global Changes & Opportunities explains, "I think the best way to benefit from rising oil prices is to buy Exxon Mobil (XOM), the world's largest, and one of its most reliable, energy investments.

"I think the price will reach the psychologically important $100 mark by this summer, and maybe a lot sooner.

Analyst Upgrades

• General Electric (GE) and Barclays (BCS) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Warnaco (WRC) to outperform from market perform and Melco Crown (MPEL) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) and Emerson Electric (EMR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• AMD (AMD) to buy from neutral at Nomura.
• Novellus (NVLS) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• OpenTable (OPEN) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Lear (LEA) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Adobe (ADBE) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BB&T (BBT) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• D.R. Horton (DHI) upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Meritage Homes (MTH), Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) and Heartland Payment (HPY) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Hershey (HSY) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• UnitedHealth (UNH), Cigna (CI) and Allscripts (MDRX) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Nationwide Health (NHP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Reynolds American (RAI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Adtran (ADTN), PG&E (PCG) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Barron's is forecasting a 10% rise in stock prices in 2011 led by big cap stocks. They argue that the big caps have lagged the market for the past decade and are now poised to take the lead, as reported by CNBC.com.

Here are their top ten picks for this year: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walmart (WMT), Pfizer (PFE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), General Motors (GM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), United Continental Holdings (UAL), Barrack Gold (ABX), Entergy (ETR), and PepsiCo (PEP).

This company has been on my recommended list for longer than any other company in the four and a half years that I have been writing for BloggingStocks -- with only one exception, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). The company is EZCorp (EZPW), which beat the Street again with third quarter earnings per share of $0.56, three cents better than the analyst estimate.

Revenue for the quarter was $198.2 million, which tops the estimate of $191.01 million. The company projects 2011 earnings higher too: EPS of about $2.35 vs. an estimate of $2.25. EZCorp grew earnings by 33% and increased its footprint by 127 stores through new construction and acquisitions.

When you write about Apple (AAPL), you inevitably hear from some naive person informing you that, "You just don't get it; Apple is different."

There are certainly many things about Apple that are very different, but in the context of the "you just don't get it" crowd, it is absolutely not. The same was said about Google (GOOG) only a short while ago, Xerox (XRX) three decades ago and Winchester -- now part of Olin Corp. (OLN) -- rifles 125 years ago.

"Income-hungry investors have spoken, and they have chosen bonds as their investment of choice," notes dividend expert Chuck Carlson, who prefers to look to blue chip stocks for potential capital gains and income growth.

The editor of The DRIP Investor explains, "In 2009, a record $375 billion of new money flooded into bond funds. Over the same period, domestic stock funds saw $40 billion go out the door.

And through the first half of 2010, taxable bond funds had net new cash flow of $136 billion versus outflows of $18.4 billion for domestic stock funds. This torrent of money has driven down the yields on bonds to microscopic levels.

"The upshot is that, on a relative basis, dividend-paying stocks seem quite cheap compared to bonds.