Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

"A good source for finding stocks that consistently boost their dividends is S&P's High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index," suggests Chuck Carlson.

The editor of The DRIP Investor explains, "Four stocks in that index -- ExxonMobil (XOM), PepsiCo (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walgreen (WAG) -- are also long-time residents of our Editor's Portfolio.

"It's estimated that approximately one-third of the S&P 500 Index's total return since 1926 is due to dividends. Thus, dividends matter, especially if that dividend stream rises over time.

"Nowhere is the supply and demand balance as tight as it is with oil; with the somewhat stronger economy here and abroad, the oil gap is closing again," says Jim Powell.

The editor of Global Changes & Opportunities explains, "I think the best way to benefit from rising oil prices is to buy Exxon Mobil (XOM), the world's largest, and one of its most reliable, energy investments.

"I think the price will reach the psychologically important $100 mark by this summer, and maybe a lot sooner.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is expected to report Q4 earnings in late January. February put option implied volatility is at 18, April is at 19, below its 26-week average of 22, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

S&P Retail Index SPDR (XRT) January put option implied volatility is at 22, February is at 23, compared to its 26-week average of 26, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing near-term price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

This series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

Leave it to our representatives in Washington to make a compromise that ignores most of their previously stated beliefs -- of only a few days ago. This just reinforces again the old joke "How do you know when a politician is lying?..."

Monday the Obama administration and congressional Republicans came to an agreement to extend both unemployment benefits by 13 months, and the Bush-era tax cuts for all by two years. What happened to the Republican and Democratic noise about fiscal responsibility and reducing the debt?

A few days ago Republicans were not going to vote for an extension of the unemployment funding if there was not an associated revenue offset to pay for it. That's gone, so the deficit is going up. The Democrats claimed they would not back an extension of the tax cuts for people that earned over $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for joint returns claiming this would add $900 billion toward debt reduction. That's gone so the deficit is going up.

Early Tuesday morning, oil giant BP (BP) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2010 financial results, the same quarter in which the disastrous Gulf oil spill was finally capped. So what are the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expecting?

During the three months that ended in September, London-based BP also announced post-Gulf spill changes and plans to reinstate its dividend. Its earnings for that period are forecast to come to $1.51 per share, which is about the same as in the year-ago period. But revenue is expected to be 6.8% higher year over year to $72.5 billion.

Well, maybe not the very last word ever, but for now this is it. The poll results on eight key questions are in. Although such a small sampling is not conclusive, it may be broadly indicative of investor sentiment.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is among the most admired, talked about and intriguing companies in the investment world. This story is the fifth in a series that started off pondering Apple's cash stash and what good it was, and leading up to this polling review.

For the past few days I have been writing about Apple Inc. (AAPL) and what it might do with its growing pile of cash, promoting a dividend rather than any misadventures or allowing the cash to continue to drag down earnings per share.

This is not Apple's plan and many readers agree. They believe Steve Jobs and company know what's best about everything and have done fine by them -- the latter part is certainly true.

Today I put it to our readers to check current sentiment.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

Each day that passed in the third quarter added about $22 million to the Apple Inc. (AAPL) cash stash. Ironically we are 22 days into the fourth quarter. That means Apple has added in the neighborhood of $484 million more to what is an ever increasing percentage of the company.

The company's capitalization stands $282 billion.The cash is a drag on earnings. At the end of Q3 it equaled almost 18% of the value of the company. Considering it is the second largest company behind Exxon Mobil (XOM), for now, the bigger it gets, the more it resembles an anchor and not a safety net.

Stocks to sell that spring to mind right now are probably not in the energy sector. Crude oil prices are up 16% in six weeks. Dividend investors continue to seek out low-risk, high-yield stock picks. So you would think that the major crude oil and energy stocks are good buys right?

Wrong. The fact of the matter is that as we enter another earnings season, the numbers just aren't there for many crude oil blue chips. Even with oil prices improving right now, the ship has sailed on Q3 and those profits are all over but the counting. And as many investors will see soon, those profits may not be as healthy as many crude oil stocks would like.

It is unbelievable! Then again, maybe it's not. 24/7 Wall St. is reporting that a German company is planning to install vending machines in the U.S. that sell gold.

It was only yesterday that I cautioned investors about the overexuberance in the gold market and now that is being raised to a new level. This not only exemplifies my concerns for new investors into the precious metal, but also is strong evidence that retail investors and water-cooler chatter have pushed their way into the market. Gold being sold in vending machines by gold promoters is specifically taking advantage of the foolish retail crowd.

Are folks afraid to invest in EZCORP (EZPW)? Perhaps they are, because the stock has not moved even though the metrics improve every time I check. On July 23, EZCORP reported a year-over-year net income rise of 39%. That is, after reporting similar gains the year before.

The metrics are so strong I can't imagine why the company has not made the front page of every investment journal -- but it hasn't. EZCORP has a market-beating P/E of 10.75 (forward 8.55) and very little debt. It's earning a ROE of 19.55%, ROA of 18.75%, and a ROIC of 19.18%. Is there something evil going on here I that I've missed?

Until recently, my largest positions were in financial stocks Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC). As a contrarian investor, I do buy on fear and sell on greed as "my pal Warren" has advised for many years. This has worked out to be very profitable over the past 18 months. However, in the past 30 days the financial stocks have dropped to second place in favor of oil and gas stocks.

I think the economic recovery is moving at a snail's pace, lowering anticipated demand for oil while gas was already depressed based on the same factors and the addition of numerous new large supplies. Add to this the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and the public's already negative sentiment about oil companies and you have the makings of depressed pricing in the sector.