There have been many lessons to learn from the "Great Recession." But while the message is often clear, we can't always muster the courage, discipline or consensus to act on these lessons.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is about to enter its second season -- the playoffs. And for a Laker fan in Los Angeles, there is much to look forward to. However, the current NBA collective bargaining agreement will end and we will have to witness another battle between the billionaires and the millionaires.

Why can't the NBA learn from other businesses that have successfully maneuvered through economic turmoil to achieve profitability?

Analyst Upgrades

• Goodrich (GR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Ford (F) to neutral from underperform and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar Financial (DLLR) and Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Alterra Capital (ALTE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, as well as SunTrust (STI) to neutral from sell, at Janney Capital.
• Arch Capital (ACGL), Axis Capital (AXS), PartnerRe (PRE), Everest Re (RE) and Transatlantic (TRH) to buy from hold, as well as W. R. Berkley (WRB) to hold from sell, at Citigroup.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Ford Motor Co.(F) reported 2010 full year net income of $6.6 billion, which was its highest net income in more than 10 years. We currently estimate Ford's international operations contribute 35% to its stock price – almost similar to its North American operations (both cars and trucks together) that contribute almost 36%. In 2010, Ford's South American operations contributed 8.3% to its total automotive sales of $119.3 billion (up 0.6% from 2009). We expect that international operations will become increasingly more valuable for Ford. Ford competes globally with automakers like BMW, GM (GM), Daimler (DDAIF), Audi, Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM) and others.

We have a price estimate of $20.59, which is around 42% above the current market price.

Analyst Upgrades

• Siemens (SI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Diamond Offshore (DO) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• MeadWestvaco (MWV) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• TD AmeriTrade (AMTD) and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Janus Capital (JNS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Motorola Mobility (MMI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Frontier Communications (FTR) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
• Humana (HUM) to buy from hold at Argus.

Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) were running smoothly this afternoon. At the time of this writing, they were up 3.3% to $87.96. That wasn't too far away from the new 52-week high of $89.31 that was set earlier in the session.

Driving the move was a third-quarter earnings report. According to the Associated Press, net income declined by 39%. While that may not be something investors would want to buy, here's the part of the story that they apparently are giving a bid: management increased its outlook for the full-year profit, expecting it to come in at around $6 billion instead of $4.3 billion.

Ford (F) overall option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

KKR & Co. (KKR) February 15 and 17 calls are active on total call volume of 9,000 contracts, compared to 3,000 puts. February call option implied volatility is at 43, March is at 41; above its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data. Active volume suggest traders positioning for larger price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Did you see the price action in Ford (F) Friday? I shouldn't call it price action; instead, I should refer to what I saw as an act of total carnage. Seriously, down over 13%?

That's what happened. Volume was, as one might expect, huge. The price of the automobile manufacturer settled at the end of day to a quote of $16.27. The 52-week low for the shares is $9.75 while the 52-week high is $18.97. The one-year chart shows a stock that has been doing very well. Investors want to know if this is a simple bump in the road on the way to further capital appreciation.

Economies go in cycles. They push to their breaking points, then move in the opposite direction. We saw it clearly in the '90s when there was no end to up (except there was and we abruptly hit it in 2000). In 2008, it felt like there was no end to down. But we now know there is. Things are picking up, and there are numbers to prove it.

Don't be the last to figure out we're in an economic recovery. Sitting on the sidelines, waiting for one more chance to buy a stock at the bargain price you saw in March of 2009 isn't going to happen. Times have changed. The U.S. economy is on the mend.

In another sign that auto industry has bright day ahead of it, Ford Motor Company (F) announced today that it planned to hire an additional 7,000 employees over the next 2 years.

While this is definitely good news, the figures are still way down from where they were before the auto crisis ravished the industry. Ford currently has 42,000 compared to 103,000 just ten years ago.

December is traditionally a slow month for auto sales. Most people are caught up with holiday shopping and tend to put off large purchases.

This year was different. December auto sales were higher for most makers, Toyota being the exception. Here are the numbers by company, as reported by CNNMoney:

Nobody knows what the future holds. But there are a few things shaping up that suggest certain things will most likely happen. Here are some of the major ones.

Interest Rates: Low at the beginning of the year, then headed higher for a long time. If you have an adjustable rate mortgage and you're still paying it, it's the perfect time to get it refinanced, if you can qualify. Interest rates are definitely going up; it's just a matter of when. As long as the Fed is pumping money in (QE2 is targeted with $800 billion .... with the possibility of more behind it), rates will stay low, unless investors think inflation will get way out of hand. Then rates will go higher no matter what the Fed does as investors sell longer term bonds to beat the coming inflation. Initially, rising interest rates will be bullish as they are a precursor to a healthy economy. But that bull will morph and become a bear when rates start jumping as the Fed tries to get ahead of inflation. Tricky business. Investors will do well to have floating rate assets and fixed rate liabilities.

This may have been Black Friday for the retailers, but the shortened Friday session felt like a Red Friday for investors. Continuing concern about Irish banks, Portuguese debt, and tension in Korea all weighed on investors. The National Federation of Retailers predicted some 138 million shoppers will be trolling for bargains this weekend, up from 134 million last year. The U.S. dollar continues to gain strength against the euro, the yen, and the British pound. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 11,092.00, -95.29, -0.85%
S&P 500: 1,189.40. -8.95, -0.75%
NASDAQ: 2,534. -8.56, -0.34%

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