Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded VMware (NYSE: VMW) to Hold from Underperform on expectations June quarter revenue will be inline-to-slightly-better and negative revisions to September quarter revenue will not be as great as in the most recent two quarters. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $20.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback and believes expectations for Q2 are reasonable. The firm has a $50 price target on the stock.
  
• FBR Capital upgraded Bronco Drilling (NASDAQ: BRNC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation as it believes negative sentiment will ease. The firm raised its target on shares to $4 from $3.
• Unilever (NYSE: UL) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Posco (NYSE: PKX) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Gol Linhas Aereas (NYSE: GOL) was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Analog Semiconductors, Hill International and Varian Semi were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Lehman upgraded Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Fairchild Semi (NYSE: FCS), and Intersil Corp (NASDAQ: ISIL) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm believes Analog semis have one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles in technology and expects the group to outperform in 2008.
  
• B. Riley raised Hill International (NYSE: HIL) to Buy from Neutral following the company's Q4 results which they believe continued to reflect strong growth across both segments of the business.
  
• ThinkEquity upgraded Varian Semi (NASDAQ: VSEA) to Accumulate from Source of Funds citing valuation and expectations that the company will end up with over 70% of the overall implant market past 2008. The firm adds that scale and pricing power should drive upside to margins.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) was raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
• JP Morgan upgraded Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• UBS upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Buy from Neutral.

Believe it or not, one of the oldest semiconductor companies in the world is now in its 50th year of operations. Even more interesting is the fact that it's not in the Silicon Valley. To find these folks, you have to go to South Portland, Maine.

Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS) offers a broad portfolio of components for electronic applications in the computing, communications, consumer, industrial and automotive markets. Products include logic chips, power and signal components, optoelectronics, non-volatile memory chips and diverse categories of analog and mixed-signal chips. The company also provides contract manufacturing services to other semiconductor makers. Competitors include Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).

The Street was surprised last week, when the firm reported Q3 EPS of 27 cents and revenues of $426.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 20 cents and $420.9 million. The CEO attributed the solid quarter to robust computing and handset demand and to operating expense controls. Management also issued in-line guidance for Q4 revenues and estimated that gross margin would be about 50-150 basis points higher (quarter to quarter). FCS shares popped on the news and have now begun to define a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Select theater stocks, Equity Inns (ENN), Talbots (TLB) and Starbucks (SBUX) filled today's noteworthy downgrade segment:

• Banc of America said summer blockbusters have fallen off faster than they expected and there are fewer mid-tier films to support growth:

• The firm downgraded Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ: CKEC), Cinemark Holdings (NYSE: CNK) and Regal Entertainment Group (NYSE: RGC) to Neutral from Buy.

• Equity Inns (NYSE: ENN) was cut to Sell from Hold at AG Edwards after the Whitehall acquisition. JMP Securities and Friedman Billings cut shares to Market Perform from Outperform and KeyBanc downgraded Equity Inns to Hold from Buy.

• Matrix USA downgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Sell from Hold based on the eroding return of capital because of the company using capital to acquire and open new stores. Friedman Billings downgraded shares of

• Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Market Perform from Outperform and removed the company from their FBR Top Picks list on expectations that 2H07 same-store sales will no longer improve, removing a catalyst...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper.

• Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Lehman.

• UBS downgraded Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (NASDAQ: BGFV) to Neutral from Buy.

• Banc of America downgraded Cognos (NASDAQ: COGN) to Neutral from Buy.

• Roth downgraded Fuel Tech Inc (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

One of the world's oldest semiconductor firms is now in its 50th year of operation. Is it headquartered in the Silicon Valley? No. To find this outfit, you have to go to South Portland, Maine.

Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS) offers a broad portfolio of components for electronic applications in the computing, communications, consumer, industrial and automotive markets. Products include power and signal components,logic chips, optoelectronics, non-volatile memory chips and diverse categories of analog and mixed-signal chips. The company also provides contract manufacturing services to other semiconductor makers. Competitors include Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).

The stock has gained ground over the past week, on upside for the semiconductor group and Robert W. Baird's upgrade of the issue to "outperform" (target $26). Baird noted improving analog and discrete trends, strong bookings for Q3, and rebounding notebook and mobile phone demand.

Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc (NYSE: FCS), Power One Inc (NASDAQ: PWER) and Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) all reported slightly weaker results and warned the June quarter will remain weak. All three are very good barometers of tech hardware demand.

FCS was light with revenue declines and guided to weaker results for the June quarter. Power One, the power supply company, revenues also came in lite with revenue of $124 million versus $130 million consensus estimate, blaming a weak North American market for the miss.

Seagate, the disk drive company, also reported weak results. The hard-drive manufacturer's CEO said notebook pricing is very aggressive -- not a good sign. The notebook business has been the real growth driver for PC manufacturers. Specifically, the weaker demand led to a price war in 400-750 GB drives, with prices eroding twice as much as it had thought.

With the first quarter coming in weak and second quarter guidance pointing to continued weakness, unless the Fed starts dropping short-term rates substantially, there is little reason to get into these stocks or any of the tech food chain stocks on the hardware side.

Outside of chipping away at Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) on price or stock market weakness, stay on the sidelines until summer.

We blogged late last fall about semiconductor stocks fundamentals rolling over. It appears semi management is beginning to whisper more and more of moderating results to analysts:

• Lehman cuts Micron Technology Inc's (NYSE: MU) estimates and sees losses for the next three quarters. The increase in demand for memory chips due to Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista demanding more memory is not happening.
• Pacific Crest Securities wrote second quarter chip demand is underwhelming, with notebooks and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii the only bright spots.
• J.P. Morgan wrote consensus expectations for both the second quarter and all of 2007 are too high and is trimming estimates, The more significant earnings misses could come from Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD), Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and On Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ONNN); with smaller cuts for Texas Instrments Inc (NYSE: TXN), Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM), Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR), Xilinx Inc (NASDAQ: XLNX) and Fairchild Semiconductor International (NYSE: FCS).

We began blogging about a slowdown in semiconductor stocks in November. However, most of this slowdown could be coming to an end. It appears from both National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) and Texas Instruments recent earnings releases that both companies are seeing the industry downturn ending as inventories have been worked down and backlog is beginning to build again.

The other major points we have been making is that we are entering the seasonally weak period for these stocks. So be cautious about jumping in with both feet in the early Spring.

Most likely, the two drivers for these stocks is the Fed lowering rates or the typically seasonal pick up which occurs in late summer. Since the Fed is on hold, there appears to be no need to jump into these stocks yet. Let the bad news hit these stocks and then start bottom fishing.