FDO opened this morning at $25.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.23 and a high of $26.05. As of 12:25, FDO is trading at $25.18, up $1.19 (4.9%). The chart for FDO looks neutral and S&P gives FDO a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as FDO is above $17.50 at January expiration. Family Dollar would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
FDO hasn't been below $17.50 since January and has shown support around $23.50 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FDO.
Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:
Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) operates a chain of more the 6,500 U.S. retail discount stores, offering consumables, home products, apparel, electronic items and seasonal goods. The firm specializes in neighborhood outlets, located near its low- and middle-income customers in rural and urban areas. Most items are priced under $10. Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 46 cents and revenues of $1.7 billion. Analysts had been looking for 40 cents and $1.7 billion. The CEO attributed success to the company's "intense focus on controlling expenses and mitigating inventory risk." Management also guided Q4 EPS to 30-35 cents (29 cent consensus).
While sales grew at Family Dollar, stores that target affluent or higher-income shoppers saw flat or negative growth. This all points to one thing: customers are seeking out bargains wherever they can to offset rising prices in other areas of their lives. This sounds like it should have happened last summer as the credit freeze was beginning, but with summer in full swing and gas prices at $4 a gallon levels, the reality of the dollar store is setting in for millions of Americans.
With the typical Family Dollar customer being the "mom who makes less than $30,000 per year," it's not hard to imagine all the dollar-type retailers starting to see increasing fortunes in the near future. Every worker in the U.S. who drives has easily seen their last performance increase fade away. In fact, many have actually experienced a large financial demotion due to high gas prices and food costs. It's hard to think of it that way for many, but that is what it is. Inflation and energy costs can wipe out that raise pretty fast, yes? With that in mind, you may want to venture into a dollar store soon. Most likely, you'll be pleased with the price levels you find on almost every product.
Discount-store operator Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported that its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as more consumers sought bargains on food and other items. And Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as increased advertising of its educational programs attracted new students.
Family Dollar earnings for the quarter ended May 31 rose 7% from the year-ago period to $64.7 million, or 46 cents per share. Total revenue rose 2.9% to $1.7 billion, with same-store sales rising only 0.1%.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a profit of 40 cents per share on revenue of $1.7 billion.
The company said a rise in the average amount customers spent per transaction helped offset lower store traffic, and that cost and inventory controls also benefited results.
Family Dollar raised its fiscal fourth-quarter guidance by a penny.
Shares rose $2.81 to $23.10 in morning trading. The share price is up 16.9% year to date.
Given that it's the end of the quarter, as well as the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, next week looks to be pretty quiet as far as earnings go. But there are a few things of note.
Tax preparation company H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results Monday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of $2.03 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion. That's an increase of more than 10% over EPS a year ago. H&R Block has tended to fall short of estimates recently, and rival Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) missed its EPS estimates earlier this month. Still, analysts recommend buying HRB. Shares have risen 12.1% year to date, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 11.7%.
Alcoholic beverage maker and distributor Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 31 cents per share, up 32.3% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $906.1 million. Constellation has tended toward positive surprises recently, by 8 cents, or 33.8%, in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding STZ and have for more than 90 days., even though the long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.3%. Although shares have risen 9.0% in the past three months, they are down 16.8% year to date.
Phoenix-based education company Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results late Tuesday. Analysts on average are expecting the company to report net income of 78 cents per share -- the same as in the year ago period -- on revenue of $806.9 million. When it comes to meeting expectations, lately Apollo has a mixed record -- it fell short by 11 cents, or more than 20%, in the previous quarter. Analysts recommend buying APOL and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%. Though shares have risen 4.2% in the past three months, they are down 31.6% year to date.
Shares of retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO) have been taking a hit in early trading as the company slashed its full-year earnings outlook amid tumbling market conditions.The retailer was able to post better-than-expected earnings numbers but this was not enough to reassure investors who pushed the stock down over 1%.
Family Dollar Stores announced that its second quarter profit had dropped 30% to $63.3 million, down from $90.5 million reported in the same period a year ago when the company benefited from an extra week of holiday sales. The retailer posted quarterly earnings of 45 cents a share, slightly higher the 42 cents a share that analysts expected.
The company posted a drop of 6% in its second-quarter revenue to $1.83 billion, down from $1.95 billion a year earlier. Analysts forecast revenue of $1.84 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial. The drop in revenue came as the retailer had to face a difficult consumer environment brought by the U.S. housing market slowdown, high gas prices and credit crisis.
The result? Wall Street is rising, with the Dow industrials climbing over 200 points (211 as I write this). The broader S&P 500 is not shying from the rally either, soaring 1.8%, and the Nasdaq composite is up a cool 2.75%.
It is no surprise then to find that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) actually set a new 52-week high today, climbing to $54.15 before settling back a bit at $53.76, or 1% higher. While no specific news is driving Wal-Mart at the moment, its stock has seen nice price movement lately, as many have bet the discount retailer would fare well in a slowing economy / recession.
Theflyonthewall.com believes that the breakout is technical, saying that after the $51.50-$52 level served as a "major overhead resistance area for 3 years and was a major support area for the 2 years prior," WMT could break out if it climbed above that level. Not only that, but "breakouts of this type, which have developed over a long period of dull range trading, often produce extreme and persistent movement in the direction of the breakout." Meaning, that if the stock doesn't revert back, we could see WMT shares gain strong upward momentum.
While perhaps not breaching 52-week records, other retailers are performing well today too. Continued falling commodity prices have eased inflation concerns, putting retailers back in favor. Target (NYSE: TGT) shares are climbing nearly 2.5%; Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), which has reported a 5% earnings growth, is seeing its shares rise over 5.3%; and Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO), another discount store, is soaring over 6%.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Express Scripts and ArQule were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $90 from $125 after channel checks at CES raised concerns about competitive pressure in the U.S. and pricing. Deutsche sees increasing uncertainty for 2008.
Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation and risk to 2008 guidance.
Banc of America downgraded shares of ArQule (NASDAQ: ARQL) to Neutral from Buy following the departure of CEO Dr. Stephen Hill, to reflect greater execution risk and uncertainty.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Keefe Bruyette downgraded IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Underperform from Market Perform.
JMP Securities lowered Red Lion Hotels (NYSE: RLH) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy.
Bear Stearns downgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Underperform from Peer Perform.
Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:
Discount-store operator 
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