The stock market is rallying. Commodities are on a tear. Yet the dollar is falling. Why?
There are several reasons for the drop in the dollar, but the most obvious and simple answer is that investors around the world are selling dollars and using the money to buy stocks and commodities, particularly oil and gold.
Last week India announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF.) At an average of say $1000.00 per ounce, the transaction amounted to about $7 trillion dollars. Chances are that India sold dollars from their sovereign fund to buy the gold.
Retail hiring for the holiday shopping season was expected to be slow, and now we have the data to confirm it. According to data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (supplied to BloggingStocks by Challenger, Gray & Christmas), the retail sector added only 63,500 jobs in October -- in data that appropriately was not seasonally adjusted.
This is only slightly better than the 59,100 retail jobs added in October 2008. In the fourth quarter of last year, retail employment increased by a mere 384,300 jobs, with the retail industry turning in its worst holiday shopping season employment stats since 1989 (when it added 380,500 workers).
We had another bit of data showing strong home sales in Q3, but as prices fell. Yet the only real thing to note was that the sell-off that was starting out this morning just didn't hold when you look at the broad indexes today. Some dollar directional changes may be part of the issue that kept the stocks from getting cheaper. There were still many losers on the day.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Out of the kindness of its ginormous heart, Google (GOOG) is giving holiday travelers a bit of cheer this season, providing free Wi-Fi in 47 U.S. airports starting today and running through January 15. As a bonus to Virgin America passengers traveling within the continental U.S., Google is providing in-flight Wi-Fi as well.
Of course, the Web search giant has an ulterior motive. In a statement, a Google spokesperson said: "This is one of our holiday gifts to our users, and when you connect, we also hope you'll take the opportunity to try some of the latest Google products."
Dr. Doom is back. Last week, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini decided to speak out about the current economic recovery, warning that it cannot last. I'm not quite sure how this blog missed my radar screen, so I must thank Robert J. Samuelson for bringing it to my attention yesterday.
Roubini contends that while there was a massive rally in "all sorts of risky assets" has caused the dollar had weakened sharply and government bond yields have "increased but stayed low and stable." These risky assets that Roubini discusses are equities, oil, energy, and commodity. Dr. Doom believes that the prices for these risky assets have risen too far and too fast compared to macroeconomic fundamentals.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as numerous stories are mulled over anew, the reasons for selling seem silly.
The lack of important data today forces market participants to revisit stories that got tossed out over the last few weeks simply because of earnings ennui. People are now doubling back to see what they have forgotten, or more important, why they sold certain stocks they most likely shouldn't have.
For example, why did JPMorgan (JPM) (Cramer's Take) go from $47 to $44? Bad loans? Credit quality? No, not really. Nothing like that. Why did Goldman Sachs (GS) (Cramer's Take) go from $192 to the $170s? Some of it was Meredith Whitney, but there is also a sense of entitlement that makes the firm hated, as if somehow it is too much of a pariah to invest in.
When I discussed Lions Gate Entertainment's (LGF) first-quarter results, I noted the disappointing statement of cash flows. Unfortunately, the company didn't do much better in the second quarter. For the six-month period, Lions Gate used over $160 million for operations compared to the roughly $40 million used in the similar frame one year ago.
Of course, cash flow doesn't always get the most coverage. Investors tend to get more excited by a swing to profitability. On that count, Lions Gate scored admirably, earning 26 cents per diluted share versus losing 44 cents per diluted share twelve months prior. Earnings.com indicates that analysts were really underestimating the Q2 income potential here: the call was for 6 cents per share.
It was to be expected. After Wall Street climbed to 13-months highs with stocks rallying over 2% just on Monday to add to last week's gains, finally U.S. stock futures edged lower Tuesday morning, indicating stocks will are poised to retreat somewhat at the open. There's not much news this morning as investors await some housing data.
Deals and the Group of 20 helped sentiment Monday push stocks for their six straight higher close. Several deals in the making boosted investor confidence as did the Group of 20, which said over the weekend that it would keep economic stimulus measures in place for now. And with the Federal Reserve indicating it would keep rates low, buyers came back in droves Monday taking the Dow industrials up over 200 points.
To say the current economic climate has been "thin on good news" would be an understatement.
But here are two data points that represent definite uppers: first, monthly job losses have declined to about 190,000 -- still large and unacceptable, using any macroeconomic model, but light years away from the 500,000 and 600,000 monthly job losses that characterized the financial crisis' acute stage earlier this year.
Goldman Sachs's (GS) normally reclusive CEO and noted theologian Lloyd Blankfein has been conducting an unprecedented number of interviewers of late to try to bolster the company's image.
Maybe they'd be better off if he crawled back into his shell.
In an interview with London's Sunday Times, Mr. Blankfein explained that Goldman Sachs is "doing God's work."
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the Senate is filled with more-savvy politicians, and the upside for beaten-down names is huge.
Nancy Pelosi has now said her piece. The most unpopular Speaker of the House in the history of Wall Street has gotten her precious health care legislation through the House after ramming through a stimulus package that had far too little infrastructure and far too much pay raise for municipal and state workers, the most powerful interest group in the country.
But this time the Senate sees through it, and the politicians -- despite Pelosi's insistence that Tuesday's election went her way -- know better. There are pages after pages after pages in this bill that look threatening. But here's the rub: This bill's public option, the one that is supposed to be a killer to everything health care, should affect no more than 6 million people over a 10-year period, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In order to get 60 votes in the Senate, even that may prove to be too powerful an option.
Disney (DIS) had high hopes for A Christmas Carol. It was supposed to be an unqualified blockbuster. Unfortunately, the film's first weekend at the box office was nothing short of a disaster.
Too strong? Hardly. According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Carol took in little more than $30 million at domestic screenings. It was wasn't supposed to be like this. Carol was supposed to be light-years ahead of the competition. Sony's (SNE) Michael Jackson's This Is It came in second. The Men Who Stare at Goats, distributed by Liberty Capital Group's (LCAPA) Overture Films, was third. And The Fourth Kind, from General Electric's (GE) Universal, is currently ranked, aptly enough, in fourth place. Each of the latter three pictures had a gross of somewhere between $12 million and $14 million. To me, Carol's take didn't seem as disproportionate as it should have been.
Could it be that private-equity buyouts are making a comeback? There are certainly signs of a return. Just last week, TPG and the Canada Pension Plan agreed to shell out $4 billion for IMS Health (RX).
This week, we have another interesting deal: KKR and General Atlantic will buy TASC for $1.65 billion. TASC is the consulting unit of Northrop Grumman (NOC).
Actually, the military giant had little choice but to unload the division because of a conflict of interest. How can you provide unbiased consulting to the U.S. government as well as sell weapons to it?
U.S. stock futures climbed significantly higher Monday morning, pointing to a strong open on Wall Street following gains in overseas stock markets. With little in the way of economics data and earnings, investors mostly are following several potential deal news.
Last week, with mostly encouraging economic data and generally better-than-expected earnings, the Dow reclaimed the 10,000 mark and remained above it despite the unemployment rate reaching 10.2%. It seems for now, the promise of a recovery and a Federal Reserve that's keeping stimulating policies are enough to boost sentiment.