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Analyst upgrades: NOVL, CNW, FLML, TM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Novell, Con-Way and Flamel Technologies were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Jefferies named Novell (NASDAQ: NOVL) its Tuesday Value Pick and upgraded shares to Buy from Hold based on expectation for revenue stabilization and gradually improving margins throughout 2008. They note the company has $3.64 in cash per share.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Con-Way (NYSE: CNW) to Overweight from Neutral, citing strong execution following the company's Q4 report.
  • Flamel Tech (NASDAQ: FLML) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merriman, as they believe low expectations and the company's robust pipeline create upside the potential for upside in 2008.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Toyota (NYSE: TM) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at HSBC.
  • UBS upgraded Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) to Buy from Neutral.
  • BNP Paribas raised Siliconware Precision (NASDAQ: SPIL) to Buy from Hold.

Option update 8-23-07; Time premium Erosion; only six trading days in the next eleven days

OSI Pharma (NASDAQ: OSIP) implied volatility of 30 below 26-week average of 38. OSIP develops and commercializes products to improve the quality of life for cancer and diabetes patients. OSIP is recently up .60 to $34.85. Wachovia says "solid earnings growth from unexpected strength of European Tarceva sales and thoughtfully implemented cost controls, we upgrade OSIP to Market Perform from Underperform." OSIP September & October option implied volatility of 30 is below its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risks.

Flamel Technologies (NASDAQ: FLML) put volume & volatility Spike on disappointing trial data. FLML, a biopharmaceutical company, is recently down $2.10 to $10.58. Merriman Curhan says "disappointing results for the CASPER trial, a head-to-head study comparing twice daily Coreg IR vs. once-daily Coreg CR, with Coreg CR demonstrating no statistically significant improvement in compliance and/or adverse events relative to Coreg IR." Third Point, an activist hedge fund, announced on 7/16 a 9.2% stake in FLML. FLML September 10 puts have traded 111 times on transaction volume of 2,063 contracts, above its open interest of 137 contracts. FLML September option implied volatility is at 115 above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .21 to 22.68; 10-day moving average is 27.12.

Six trading days in the next eleven days; Options will have no movement during five days.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Flamel Tech SA: Delivers the goods for Big Pharma

Flamel Technologies SA (ADR) (NASDAQ:FLML) is in the business of making drugs that are already on the market work better. This company, based in France, creates biotechnology. Its two products in use right now are Medusa and Micropump -- both are controlled release mechanisms, allowing patients to take a drug less times a day, and without as many side effects.

Flamel makes deals with other big pharmaceutical companies to team with its technology, receiving a royalty in exchange. For a recent and exciting example, Flamel recently struck a deal with GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (NYSE:GSK) to create a controlled-release version of GlaxoSmithKline's heart-helper, the beta-blocker Coreg. The new product is called Coreg CR. Users only need to take one dose a day, which is going to draw consumers like flies to the product.

Detractors of Flamel point to the fact that while Coreg is wildly successful right now, with roughly $1.3 billion in sales in 2006, it will lose its patent protection this year. But other analysts point to this deal as establishing Flamel's strong position in the field, prompting other Big Pharma firms to take it seriously as well. Also, its technology works well, so people may not switch to the generic version of Coreg as quickly.

There is a problem inherent in the general Flamel business model, however. While the company is clearly strong in technology development, it relies on partners to get that tech into the marketplace. It simply isn't a big enough company to do it on its own. But I love what it's creating, and teaming with heavy-hitters like GlaxoSmithKline points to its ascendancy in the field.

Additionally, there are great products in the Flamel pipeline; among others, it has an insulin product in Phase II clinical trials called Basulin that awaits approval by Food and Drug Administration. For me, if the product is novel and works, the big companies will come to Flamel as partners. As royalty income grows, operating margins have a chance to fall.

Type of stock: A small player in the biotech field who teams with Big Pharma to license its innovative products.

Price target: Currently trading at $29, I'd wait for Flamel to dips to the $25 level and then buy. This is one to
hold onto for a few years as I think it's going to continue to make strides as a smart new bio-technology.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 06:09 PM

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