FMT posts
FeedPosted Sep 29th 2007 10:00AM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, China, , Housing
No one would be particularly surprised that Chinese stocks traded on U.S. exchanges did well in the third quarter. The Shanghai Composite has doubled so far this year, and many stocks like Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), the China search engine, have made stunning gains.
In the third quarter, China Eastern Airlines (NYSE: CEA) moved up 112%. China Finance Online (NASDAQ: JRJC) ran up 282%. It is hard to imagine that the Chinese market can keep up this momentum, but analysts say that every quarter.
No one would find it odd that home builders and mortgage lenders were among the big losers in the quarter. Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) fell 66% to $8.25. Fremont General (NYSE: FMT), which has a subprime lending operation, fell 63.4% to $3.90. Mortgage lender Novastar Financial (NYSE: NFI) was down 68% to $8.87.
As retail sales fell, specialty store operations took a pounding. Gottschalks (NYSE: GOT) fell 63.5% to $4.34. And, Sharper Image (NASDAQ: SHRP) dropped 63.7% to $4.13.
The toughest part of the quarter is the realization the retail, housing, and mortgage shares could actually go lower during the October to December period.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.
Posted Aug 31st 2007 9:29AM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Law, , Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Housing
President George Bush seems an unlikely hero for Wall Street, but he is just that this morning.
The president intends to announce his plan to ease the plight of the subprime mortgage industry. Having so many voters without homes is not working out.
But, the law of unintended consequences is kicking in. Home builders are up big while the market waits for the Bush plan announced in about two hours. Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) is rallying off a level near its 52-week low and is up 8% to $10.65. Lennar (NYSE: LEN), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and other large home builders are up sharply was well.
Over on the real estate lending side of town, Fremont General (NYSE: FMT) is up 15% and Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) is in the green by 7%.
According to several press reports picked up by MarketWatch: "The Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance program will be changed to allow more people to refinance with FHA insurance if they fall behind on adjustable-rate mortgages."
However, no one outside the Bush administration is likely to know much about the details of the plan yet and some of the proposals may require approval from Congress.
This means that just after Mr. Bush's speech, the home building and mortgage lending stocks could go right back down.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.
Posted Jun 6th 2007 1:02PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters
A number of leading financial newsletter advisors -- including Mark Skousen, Bryan Perry, Daniel Frishberg, and Neil George -- have recently taken positions in specialty finance and mortgage lending stocks, sectors that had suffered from the "meltdown" in the subprime mortgage market.
Mark Skousen, in his The Hedge Fund Trader, notes, "Mortgage lenders are making a comeback." The recent price recovery, he notes, has been broad ranged, covering most thrifts and mortgage trusts. He notes, "It appears that investors have concluded that the subprime lending scandal was limited."
iStar Financial (NYSE: SFI), he states, is his favorite commercial REIT. In fact, it was a recent announcement from iStar that acted as a catalyst for an improvement in the overall sector.
He explains, "California savings & loan Fremont General Corp. (NYSE: FMT) announced that it would sell its commercial real estate lending business to iStar Financial for about $1.9 billion. With Fremont expecting now to survive its subprime mortgage woes, many now consider the real estate industry recovery to be real."
Skousen also points to strong insider buying of shares in thrifts and mortgage banks.
Continue reading Mortgage gains: After the meltdown
Posted Apr 16th 2007 3:10PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, , , , Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL)
Cramer today said that the large Saudi investor buying into
HSBC Holdings Plc (ADR) (NYSE:
HBC) signals that banks might be attractive now. Maan Al-Sanea is head of a huge conglomerate and he's not Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal.
Cramer said this lends credence that
Countrywide Financial (NYSE:
CFC),
Wachovia (NYSE :
WB), and
Washington Mutual (NYSE:
WM) could all be acquired. The fact that
Fremont General (NYSE:
FMT) sold off $2 billion in subprime lows is showing there is a bid out there.
Cramer said even
SLM Corp, or Sallie Mae, (NYSE:
SLM) being bought is showing that these in the group are taking out the short sellers.
On the retail sector, Cramer again pumped up
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:
RL). He said that this could to go to $110 to $115 based on the
Coach, Inc. (NYSE:
COH) multiple out there.
Posted Apr 3rd 2007 1:48PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Best Buy (BBY), Options
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 1.47 to 13.06
Advanced Magnetics Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAG) April implied volatility at 73, May at 63 into 4/11 data. AMAG, a developer of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles used in pharmaceutical products, is recently up $1.49 to $63.10. Jeffries says "AMAG remains a top-pick ahead of upcoming P3 ferumoxytol data at the NKF meeting (April 11th, after the market close). Compared to FDA approved 4 iron products, we believe ferumoxytol has the potential to show superior safety, efficacy, and convenience." AMAG April option implied volatility of 73 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.
Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) April implied volatility of 36 suggests slight risk into 4/3 EPS. BBY is expected to report EPS of $1.52 on 4/3 according to Thomson Financial. Soleil Securities says "macroeconomic data has been varied over the last few months; several data sources suggest strength for the consumer electronics retailers. We therefore expect a solid quarter for BBY." BBY April option implied volatility of 36 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Option volume leaders today are:
Fremont General Corp. (NYSE:
FMT),
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ:
DNDN),
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:
GOOG) and
Advanced Micro Devices Inc., (NYSE:
AMD).
Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Apr 3rd 2007 7:49AM by Melly Alazraki (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the bell, International markets, Daimler (DAI), Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Indices, H and R Block (HRB), Economic data, , Politics, Oil

Stock futures are higher in early morning trading indicating a similar start for stock markets as tensions with Iran are believed to be easing, automakers are due to report March sales and subprime mortgage market is still making headlines.
Oil prices eased today as the market believes tensions between Iran and the UK over the 15 captured sailors are easing despite Blair saying the next two days are "
fairly critical." Iranian officials called for an end to "the language of force," also saying there's no need for the sailors to stand trial.
While traders will keep watching the geopolitical situation closely, they will also monitor throughout the day two other main subjects: auto and truck sales and the subprime mortgage.
Not a day after New Century Financial Corp. (NYSE: NEW)
filed for bankruptcy affecting trade on many financial institution companies yesterday, accounting firm Grant Thornton
resigned as auditor for two troubled subprime lenders Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NASDAQ: LEND) and Fremont General Corp. (NYSE: FMT) because "they no longer meet our requirements for client acceptance," the auditor said Monday.
Moody's Investors Service
plans to cut the credit ratings on 40 to 50 banks in Europe and North America after the current rating system has been criticized. I'm sure new rating on subprime lenders will further rattle the industry.
Last, H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) is expected to shortly announce the
divestiture of its Option One Mortgage Corp. unit.
Before noon, usually, automakers are expected to report March sales. The
Big Three sales are expected to decline with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) possibly posting an 8% drop while Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) reporting a 9% gain over last year. The other Japanese car makers are also expected to post gains.
Overseas, Asian stock markets closed higher and
European markets are trading higher as well. The
Financial Times reports that for the first time since World War I,
European markets exceed the value of US markets.
Company news coming up next.
Posted Mar 14th 2007 3:40PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
On today's
STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer issued what he calls a "Dirty Dozen" of stocks to avoid. He made some of these in sub-prime liar-loan companies as well on TheStreet.com. Here is his list that the short sellers are targeting, although Cramer said this isn't his list per se and he actually thinks some of these are well managed. Many of these are up huge today as well:
IndyMac Bancorp. Inc. (NYSE:
NDE)
Carterac (NYSE:
CHC)
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. (NYSE:
FBR)
Fremont General Corp. (NYSE:
FMT)
Redwood Trust (
NYSE:RWT)
Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE:
NCT)
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE:
AHM)
Gramercy Capital Corp. (NYSE:
GKK)
Rait Financial Trust (NYSE:
RAS)
Thornburg (
NYSE:TMA)
CapitalSource (
NYSE:CSE)
There is one missing here, but that's 11 of the 12. Today is the second anniversary of the MAD MONEY show.
Posted Mar 14th 2007 9:27AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the bell, International markets, Indices, Economic data, ,
In the U.S. markets this morning, traders are faced with declines in Asia and Europe. Bloomberg reports that MSCI's Asia-Pacific Index fell 2.4%, its steepest slide since March 5. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 2.9%. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 2%, poised for its worst day since February 27 when the Dow fell 416 points. The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, slipped 1.8%.
U.S. futures suggest a down opening -- but what matters is where the U.S. markets close. I don't know what makes the market go up and down. I think those who control the most capital do but they're not talking. So the rest of us are left wondering what's going on. On February 27th, the declines around the world traced out a path that seems to be repeating itself again today:
-
Yen strengthens relative to the dollar - Yesterday, the yen was up against the dollar as Japanese and other investors got concerned about a U.S. economic slowdown. This was partially responsible for the declines in Asia and Europe.
-
Carry trade reverses - Carry trade refers to the practice of investors borrowing a low-yielding currency -- such as the yen -- to invest in higher-yielding currencies and assets. The reversal of this trade means that investors sell other positions to pay back their Yen-based loans.
-
Treasury yields fall - A flight to safety causes investors to flee stocks and get into treasury bonds. For example, yesterday the 10-year Treasury note added 15/32, or $4.6875 for every $1,000 invested, to 101 1/32, yielding 4.495% Tuesday. The 30-year bond was up 17/32 to 101 15/32, yielding 4.658%.
-
Stock markets fall - Unfortunately, fleeing the Yen carry trade and buying Treasuries means that money flows out of stocks around the world. And the outflows in the U.S. lead Asian and European investors to sell -- which scares U.S. investors. And the cycle of selling continues until someone influential is willing to catch the falling knife.
What to do?
Continue reading Asian mayhem means March meltdown continues