Analyst upgrades:

• Pali Capital upgraded Lazard (LAZ) to buy from neutral, citing a healthy restructuring environment, improving M&A and strength in the asset management segment. The firm has a $46 target on shares.
• Baird upgraded Scansource (SCSC) to outperform from neutral, citing strength in the channel business and growth drivers from improved telephony and security. The firm has a $30 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Liberty Interactive (LINTA) to buy from hold, citing the company's QVC unit's return to growth. The firm raised its target on shares to $13.25 from $12.
• Hess Corp (HES) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Dillard's (DDS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

There is no significant news on Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) today, other than impending second-quarter earnings on Thursday before the open (analysts are expecting per-share earnings of 13 cents). The discount retailer has seen, however, 10,000 calls change hands on the November 15 strike, which is out of the money by $1.79. These positions were evidently sold to open, with the seller collecting a premium of 45 cents each.

So what's going on? Not much, other than a case of deja vu. It appears as though this same investor sold August 15 calls back in March. Now that the August series has expired, this trader is looking ahead to the November series. He will retain the full premium if FRED is trading below $15 at expiration. Breakeven for this trade is $15.45.

Beth works for The Options News Network (www.ONN.tv), which provides daily stock and options commentary. The above comments are not intended as trading advice.

Canadian banks are scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week, with third-quarter reports coming from Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). While Canadian banks on the whole held up better than their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, these five are expected to report that their earnings are still declining in the most recent quarter.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for EPS for these banks to have fallen from 15% to 25% from a year ago. Their long-term EPS growth forecast is for between 10% and 12%, which is in the same range as U.S. rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), but better than Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but none of them have a First Call consensus recommendation is to buy. The Motley Fool, though, considers TD as a value stock and RY a stock poised to pop. All of them are trading much closer to their 52-week highs than lows, and shares of all are up more than 100% since March lows.

After the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, the earnings spotlight turns to Canadian banks: Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) are all scheduled to report their second-quarter results.

While banks north of the border of generally have held up better than their U.S. counterparts, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the four listed above to report that earnings declined between 20% and 30% since the same period of last year. All four have P/E ratios around 10, and they are paying dividends. Shares of all four have surged 50% to 83% in the past three months, but are still 26% to 38% lower than a year ago.

As the calendar quarter winds down, let's take look at some of this coming week's biggest expected earnings gainers.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Memphis-based Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) to report fourth-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, 36.4% higher than a year ago, and revenue of $472.5 million, down 4.4%. For the full year, the forecast is for a profit of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.8 billion, compared to $0.52 per share and $1.8 billion in the previous year. The discount retailer beat or met earnings estimates in the past three quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is better than the industry average and that of larger rival Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and the forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. In the third quarter, the company had more cash than debt. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy FRED. The share price has risen 2.7% since the beginning of the year to $11.05.

In early 2008, Toby Smith forecast a shift among consumers towards discount retailers; in ChangeWave Investing, he still looks to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Fred's (NASDAQ: FRED) as the best way to participate in this ongoing trend.

"Consumers are worried about their jobs and about trying to build savings, so the last thing they are apt to do is spend frivolously.

"Early in 2008, our ChangeWave Alliance accurately picked up a major transformational shift in retailing as consumers began to increase spending at discounters. That shift became even more dramatic, as the economic downturn worsened in Q4 2008.

Results for the tech stocks in last week's preview were a mixed bag, some beats, some misses, some in line. By and large, expectations for tech companies reporting results this week remain high, though. Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating in the way of earnings, as compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF): $1.48 EPS (+73.0%) on sales of $1.3 billion (+171.0%)
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL): $0.21 EPS (+71.4%) on sales of $836.7 million (+27.4%)
• Solera Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SLH): $0.29 EPS (+51.7%) on sales of $137.0 million (+11.8%)
• Applied Signal Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: APSG): $0.14 EPS (+42.9%) on sales of $46.4 million (+17.4%)
• China Finance Online Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JRJC): $0.14 EPS (+42.6%) on sales of $13.3 million (+131.5%)
• OSI Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIS): $0.38 EPS (+36.8%) on sales of $162.0 million (+6.0%)
• LaBarge Inc. (AMEX: LB): $0.27 EPS (+33.3%) on sales of $71.6 million (+10.4%)
• Esterline Technologies Corp. (NYSE: ESL): $0.69 EPS (+11.6%) on sales of $374.6 million (+14.8%)
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL): $0.36 EPS (+11.1%) on sales of $15.9 billion (+7.8%)
• HEICO Corp. (NYSE: HEI): $0.46 EPS (+13.0%) on sales of $147.1 million (+10.5%)
• Daktronics Inc. (NASDAQ: DAKT): $0.17 EPS (flat) on sales of $141.5 million (+17.0%)
• Novell Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL): $0.05 EPS (flat) on sales of $241.4 million (-0.7%)
• Omnivision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI): $0.29 EPS (-17.1%) on sales of $172.5 million (-0.4%)
• Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGM): $0.39 EPS (-18.8%) on sales of $58.7 million (+37.9%)

This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.

With over 4,000 stores in the United States ranging from warehouse-concept Sam's Club to discount retail stores to supercenters, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is by far the largest retailer in the U.S. -- and the world. So where does Wal-Mart go from here? International expansion has become the true growth engine for Wal-Mart as it dots the landscapes of other nations. The company has embarked on a series of initiatives these past 15 months to spruce up the stores, install better lighting and offer a more competitive brand of consumer goods. Recent same-store sales have validated these improvements.

Wal-Mart has been the beneficiary of a more cost-conscious consumer in this economic slowdown. Yet it can only squeeze so much growth out of its existing locations. And if it opens more stores, it risks cannibalizing the revenues of its existing stores.

Enter Fred's (NASDAQ: FRED). This quiet, regional concept has been around since 1947. Fred's is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, and has its base in 15 Southeastern states. Fred's has 659 discount stores and 280 pharmacies in its system -- with room to grow. Fred's has 24 franchisees, which is a quicker way to expand the concept while not draining the corporate coffers.

Fred's offers a full range of apparel, food, sporting goods and other general merchandise in its system. The company's philosophy is: quality merchandise at a discount price. The stores are well lit, organized and make for a pleasant shopping experience.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: 012Smile.com, Lifecell and Genoptix were today's noteworthy initiations:

• 012Smile.com (NASDAQ: SMLC) was initiated with an Outperform rating and a $16 target at CIBC World Markets and RBC Capital and with an Overweight rating and $14.75 target at Thomas Weisel. CIBC believes the company is one of the least expensive smart-build competitive carriers in the world. The firm believes the company is poised to gain market share in newly opened local and wireless markets, and sees room for the company to expand its customer base in Israel. Cowen, which started shares with an Outperform rating, believes SMLC backing by Eurocom provides the company with significant clout and financial backing. The firm sees upside from new voice over broadband and wireless services.
  
• Banc of America resumed coverage of Lifecell (NASDAQ: LIFC) with a Neutral rating and $48 target and prefers to wait for a better entry point or evidence of better than expected Strattice uptake.
  
• The firm also started Genoptix (NASDAQ: GXDX) with a Buy rating and $36 target, as they believe the funds raised in the company's IPO will help drive annual EPS growth of 35% on a long-term basis, leading to higher valuation levels.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• JP Morgan initiated Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) with a Neutral rating.
  
• UBS started Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) with a Sell rating and $85 target and Martin Marietta (NYSE: MLM) with a Neutral rating and $137 target.

Fred's stores have been providing customers with everyday essentials for a long time. The year the first store was established, in fact, the average American salary was $2589, Professor Land was on the verge of selling his first Polaroid camera to the public and the DJIA cycled between 166 and 184. What year? Read on.

Fred's, Inc. (NASDAQ:FRED) is engaged in the sale of general merchandise, through retail discount stores in the southeastern United States. Outlets offer household goods, apparel and linens, food and tobacco products, health and beauty aids, paper and cleaning supplies and pharmaceuticals. The company operates about 700 stores, primarily in small towns. Nearly half of Fred's stores have full-service pharmacies. The firm was founded in 1947.

The company pleased investors last week, when it announced a February same-store sales increase of 3.9% That nearly doubled the Street view (2%). Wedbush Morgan subsequently raised its rating on the stock from "hold" to "buy" and boosted its price target to $17. Wedbush noted that merchandising, marketing and operational initiatives were having positive impacts on business. The stock price popped through moving average resistance on the news and has since been defining a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Altogether, brokers recommend the shares with two "strong buys," one "buy," eight "holds" and a "sell." Analysts see a 14% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The FRED Price to Sales ratio (0.34), Price to Book ratio (1.60) and Price to Cash Flow ratio (10.35) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

Institutional investors hold about 92% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $11.30 and $15.32. A stop-loss of $12.30 looks good here. Note that Fred's is expected to report fourth quarter earnings on March 22nd, before the opening bell.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.