The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) saw a nice increase in its bottom-line profit. The retailer, which reported earnings for the first quarter earlier this week, said it made 66 cents per share, good for an increase of more than 37%. Revenues increased 14%, and same-store sales went up a whopping 9%. So many retailers would absolutely kill to have that same-store number.

It's no secret why Dollar Tree is thriving. Bad economy plus items-that-sell-for-a-dollar-each equals retail success. Brand equity is important. So is convenience. But a cheap price point oftentimes trumps all.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) forecast Q3 earnings that are well above analysts' estimates.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) said it narrowed its loss in Q4 despite restructuring costs.
• Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM) is expected to fall short of Q4 earnings expectations.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported strong Q2 results and and raised its outlook for Q3.

A new earnings reporting season kicks off this coming week with the quarterly report from Alcoa, the first Dow Jones industrial to report. But investors looking for early signs about the first quarter will be disappointed in what they see from the aluminum producer, assuming that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are neither too optimistic or too pessimistic about those results.

It is tough to be a retailer in this climate. It's especially tough to be a retailer like J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG). After all, if you're a Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) or a Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), at least you can entice consumers with your low prices, and at least you stock things that people need. Not so with J. Crew. It's a fashion retailer that you don't have to visit during the recession. Apparently, many people indeed haven't been visiting lately. That's why shareholders will most likely be nervous when fourth-quarter numbers are issued after the bell on Tuesday, March 10.

According to this source, J. Crew should report an earnings loss of $0.27 per share. How ugly! This compares to a profit of $0.41 per share in the year-ago period. I expect to hear the same stuff that we've been hearing from retailers such as Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS): things are tough, the rest of the year is going to be a huge challenge, we're doing everything we can to navigate the business through the treacherous times, etc. Such rhetoric probably won't be comforting to shareholders, especially considering that J. Crew's stock isn't too far from a 52-week low.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI) reported lower Q1 earnings that still beat analysts' expectations.
• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) reported unimpressive Q3 results but shares rose anyway.
• Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) warned of lower Q4 earnings due to lower oil prices and narrow margins.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) Q3 earnings tumbled on on restructuring costs and weaker sales.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) topped Q1 earnings expectations as consumers seek bargains.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) lowered its Q4 revenue guidance once more due to lower demand.
• LDK Solar Co. (NYSE: LDK) cut its Q4 revenue outlook as clients asked for delayed shipments.
• Manitowoc Co. (NYSE: MTW) said profit will likely come in at the low end of its previous guidance range.
• Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) reported strong Q1 numbers and raised its full-year guidance.
• Neogen Corp. (NASDAQ: NEOG) posted its 63rd-consecutive profitable quarter, helped by an acquisition.
• Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (NASDAQ: RMCF) posted dismal Q3 numbers on economic downturn.
• Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) higher-than-expected December sales prompted raised guidance.
• Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) reported a Q3 loss because of hefty one-time charges, but topped estimates.
• Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) cut its Q4 forecast after lower-than-expected December sales.
• Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) forecast lower-than-expected Q4 earnings on weak December sales.

For more earnings highlights, see Time Warner, Satyam, Google, KB Home, Mosaic and others

Upcoming earnings releases include Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), Infosys (NASDAQ: INFY), Linear Technologies (NASDAQ: LLTC) , Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX), Genentech (NYSE: DNA), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Marshall & Ilsley (NYSE: MI), Sealy (NYSE: ZZ), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), a retailer that competes with Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday, and the market couldn't have been happier. As I was writing this, the stock was trading up over 13% on very nice volume. But, is 13 an unlucky number in this case? Would those buying in now be buying in too high?

Well, I can understand the euphoria surrounding the stock rise. To begin with, Q1 earnings beat estimates by two pennies. They came in at $0.42 per share, and that represented a double-digit growth rate for the bottom line of over 13% (there's that unlucky number again!). Top-line sales of approximately $1.8 billion essentially met expectations. When you think of Family Dollar's business and marketing model, you can understand why it's doing well. We're in one of the worst recessions ever, and people are looking for cheap prices on everything. I'm not the biggest fan of dollar-store businesses (for instance, I don't think I'd buy foodstuffs for a buck), but I do shop at them from time to time and can appreciate the allure. I think you can also understand why the stock is performing as well as it has been today: on top of the earnings beat, Family Dollar was the greatest S&P stock story of 2008 according to this source.

Here's the big question on everyone's mind: Is Family Dollar still a buy? If you're currently trading strength, I think you could buy this one after a pullback and then ride the stock to its 52-week high of over $32 per share. I see no reason why it won't make that level, especially if economic conditions continue to worsen (did I say if?). However, I certainly wouldn't be a buyer of today's rally. I think there's momentum behind this name, but I'll say this -- there are probably better bargains out there for any profit you might make from a trade on Family Dollar. So if you do make some bucks on it (pun intended), I'd probably take the profits and allocate them elsewhere. I'm just not sure that Family Dollar will be the best performer in '09 as well.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned, but positions can change without notice.

After the turn of the calendar page, quarterly reporting resumes this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting to see strong earnings growth from fertilizer producer Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), biotech giant Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Neogen Corp. (NASDAQ: NEOG), which produces food safety and animal health products. Mosaic's estimated earnings per share of $1.43 for the fiscal second quarter would be 41.9% higher than a year ago, and its revenue estimate of $3.0 billion is 36.7% higher. Monsanto's $0.59 per share projection for the fiscal first quarter is 22.0% higher and sales of $2.4 billion are up 14.9%. And Neogen's second-quarter $0.25 per share would be 12.0% higher, while its sales of $32.3 million are up 18.6%. All three have tended to beat expectations in recent quarters, and all three have buy recommendations from a consensus of analysts. Mosaic and Monsanto have recently announced dividends, and their share prices have fallen 62.3% and 39.0%, respectively, from a year ago. The share price of Neogen, which recently announced share buybacks, is only 0.8% lower.

Other companies expected to post modest earnings gains when they report this week include education company Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL), WD-40 Co. (NASDAQ: WDFC), and wine and spirits maker Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ).

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

If you think the Company of the Year award should go to the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, you have a clear choice (if you look at the results through November at least). The winner on that score is Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), which was up 34% as of Dec. 3. All dollar stores are doing well in the current recession-era shopping environment. But Family Dollar does particularly well since, unlike most dollar stores, few of the items for sale actually cost $1.

I shopped at a Family Dollar myself last weekend and I spent a shocking $80 on Christmas trinkets and snacks for our long road-trip home from Grandma's. I think one item in the bunch cost only a dollar, but pretty much everything was under $10 and seemed like a good value at the time. I can understand why the company is doing well.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings prospects may suffer if holiday sales are poor.
• Circuit City Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: CC) disappointing results were followed by a restructuring announcement.
• Conexant Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CNXT) raised its guidance, send shares up sharply.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) posted a Q2 loss due in part to restructuring Australian operations.
• Con-Way Inc. (NYSE: CNW) reduced Q3 guidance resulted in an analyst downgrade.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, sending shares higher.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) Q3 earnings prospects led to an analyst's upgrade.
• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) fell on rumors it would miss earnings estimates.
• Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) Q3 profits fell and it warned of challenges through 2009.
• Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) fell short of expectations and warned of a production slowdown.
• Nabors Industrial Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) warning about earnings led shares near a new low.
• Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (NYSE: PBG) beat Q3 expectations despite struggling with economic woes.
• Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) earnings prospects led to an analyst's downgrade.
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) said it expects to return to profitability after four straight quarterly losses.
• Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Q4 earnings fell short of expectations, though sales increased.

Also, Jim Cramer reminds us that earnings still matter. Changing accounting rules may affect the earnings of big banks.

Upcoming quarterly reports include Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY), Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM), Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Monsanto Co. (NASDAQ: MON), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

• Personal income (Aug. 2008): Monday 8:30 AM
• Consumer confidence index (Sept, 2008): Tuesday 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Sept, 2008): Wednesday 7:30 AM
• ISM manufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Aug. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• New motor vehicle sales (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 4:00 PM
• Monster employment index (Sept. 2008): Thursday 6:00 AM
• Factory orders (Aug. 2008): Thursday 10:00 AM
• Employment situation (Sept. 2008): Friday 8:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Friday 10:00 AM

Other economic events scheduled for this week include:

• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Monday 9:45 PM
• Fed's Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook: Tuesday 1:00 PM
• Ford Motor Co. September 2008 Sales Conference Call: Wednesday 1:00 PM
• AMETEK Inc. at Oppenheimer Industrials Conference: Thursday 8:00 AM
• DuPont at Citigroup Ethanol on the Cob Conference: Thursday 12:50 PM
• Fed's Evans speaks at Agricultural Markets and Food Price Inflation conference: Thursday 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks at Indiana University Department of Economics: Thursday 7:00 PM
• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Thursday 9:45 PM
• National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting to address Future Economic Challenges: Friday 9:00 PM

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) Q2 earnings decline on materials costs but beat analysts estimates (see transcript).
• Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) solid Q3 results were accompanied by a share buyback program.
• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) warned that Q2 results will include a delay-related charge of 22 cents per share.
• Cash America International Inc. (NYSE: CSH) predicted Q2 earnings above previous guidance.
• EZcorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW) predicted better-than-expected Q3 results due to strong sales.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) beat Q3 expectations and raised its Q4 guidance.
• Flow International Corp. (NASDAQ: FLOW) swung to a better-than-expected Q4 profit on strong demand.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) reported mixed Q2 results and offered an uninspiring Q3 outlook (transcript).
• Helen of Troy Ltd. (NASDAQ: HELE) Q1 results were colored by write-downs and other charges.
• International Speedway Corp. (NASDAQ: ISCA) Q2 earnings soared while revenue slipped.
• Levis Strauss Q2 profitability plunged due to declining sales and higher administrative costs.
• Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) topped Q2 estimates but lowered its guidance (see transcript).