Shares of thrift retailer Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) have been trading strongly higher this morning after the company announced strong second quarter earnings this morning.

We mentioned in our earnings preview yesterday that analysts were expecting to see earnings of $0.60 per share, and that is exactly what Family Dollar delivered.

One company that has been making the best of the current economy is retailer Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO). The company has been strong over the past couple of years, and is looking to continue that trend by posting strong second quarter earnings in the morning.

Over the past six quarters, the company has been able to match or beat estimates each time. Going into tomorrow's release, Wall Street is expecting the company show earnings of $0.60 per share.

It is tough to be a retailer in this climate. It's especially tough to be a retailer like J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG). After all, if you're a Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) or a Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), at least you can entice consumers with your low prices, and at least you stock things that people need. Not so with J. Crew. It's a fashion retailer that you don't have to visit during the recession. Apparently, many people indeed haven't been visiting lately. That's why shareholders will most likely be nervous when fourth-quarter numbers are issued after the bell on Tuesday, March 10.

According to this source, J. Crew should report an earnings loss of $0.27 per share. How ugly! This compares to a profit of $0.41 per share in the year-ago period. I expect to hear the same stuff that we've been hearing from retailers such as Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS): things are tough, the rest of the year is going to be a huge challenge, we're doing everything we can to navigate the business through the treacherous times, etc. Such rhetoric probably won't be comforting to shareholders, especially considering that J. Crew's stock isn't too far from a 52-week low.

Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), a retailer that competes with Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday, and the market couldn't have been happier. As I was writing this, the stock was trading up over 13% on very nice volume. But, is 13 an unlucky number in this case? Would those buying in now be buying in too high?

Well, I can understand the euphoria surrounding the stock rise. To begin with, Q1 earnings beat estimates by two pennies. They came in at $0.42 per share, and that represented a double-digit growth rate for the bottom line of over 13% (there's that unlucky number again!). Top-line sales of approximately $1.8 billion essentially met expectations. When you think of Family Dollar's business and marketing model, you can understand why it's doing well. We're in one of the worst recessions ever, and people are looking for cheap prices on everything. I'm not the biggest fan of dollar-store businesses (for instance, I don't think I'd buy foodstuffs for a buck), but I do shop at them from time to time and can appreciate the allure. I think you can also understand why the stock is performing as well as it has been today: on top of the earnings beat, Family Dollar was the greatest S&P stock story of 2008 according to this source.

Here's the big question on everyone's mind: Is Family Dollar still a buy? If you're currently trading strength, I think you could buy this one after a pullback and then ride the stock to its 52-week high of over $32 per share. I see no reason why it won't make that level, especially if economic conditions continue to worsen (did I say if?). However, I certainly wouldn't be a buyer of today's rally. I think there's momentum behind this name, but I'll say this -- there are probably better bargains out there for any profit you might make from a trade on Family Dollar. So if you do make some bucks on it (pun intended), I'd probably take the profits and allocate them elsewhere. I'm just not sure that Family Dollar will be the best performer in '09 as well.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned, but positions can change without notice.

Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO - option chain) shares are rising today after the company posted a fourth-quarter profit of $53.2 million, or 38 cents per share, beating analysts' estimates of 34 cents per share. Discount stores have been one of two industries that have posted gains in the past year, alongside the typically defensive household goods industry. Today's earnings reinforce the idea that these companies are strong bets in weak economic times. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on FDO.

FDO opened this morning at $25.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.23 and a high of $26.05. As of 12:25, FDO is trading at $25.18, up $1.19 (4.9%). The chart for FDO looks neutral and S&P gives FDO a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as FDO is above $17.50 at January expiration. Family Dollar would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

FDO hasn't been below $17.50 since January and has shown support around $23.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FDO.

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO), along with the other dollar stores, may begin to see many more non-traditional customers who are aching to save every penny in the face of increasing energy and food costs. The first strike at that concept was from Family Dollar, which reported a 7.1% increase in net income for its latest quarter.

While sales grew at Family Dollar, stores that target affluent or higher-income shoppers saw flat or negative growth. This all points to one thing: customers are seeking out bargains wherever they can to offset rising prices in other areas of their lives. This sounds like it should have happened last summer as the credit freeze was beginning, but with summer in full swing and gas prices at $4 a gallon levels, the reality of the dollar store is setting in for millions of Americans.

With the typical Family Dollar customer being the "mom who makes less than $30,000 per year," it's not hard to imagine all the dollar-type retailers starting to see increasing fortunes in the near future. Every worker in the U.S. who drives has easily seen their last performance increase fade away. In fact, many have actually experienced a large financial demotion due to high gas prices and food costs. It's hard to think of it that way for many, but that is what it is. Inflation and energy costs can wipe out that raise pretty fast, yes? With that in mind, you may want to venture into a dollar store soon. Most likely, you'll be pleased with the price levels you find on almost every product.

Mosaic(NYSE:MOS) volatility Elevated as shares close at record high into EPS. MOS, a producer & marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, will report Q2 EPS on January 9th. MOS closed at $97.71. MOS January option implied volatility of 69 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Family Dollar(NYSE:FDO) volatility Up as shares at seven-year low into EPS. FDO, an operator of 6,400 stores, will report Q1 EPS on January 8th. FDO January option implied volatility of 57 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nasdaq Stock Market, Family Dollar, Circuit City, Wells Fargo and Key Corp were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Credit Suisse downgraded Nasdaq Stock Market Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation.
  
• JP Morgan expects Family Dollar Stores Inc (NYSE: FDO) to face macro pressures and increased competition from Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) and Dollar General.
  
• Bear downgraded shares of Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on lack of visibility, execution issues, softer consumer environment, potential pricing disruptions, and product cycle concerns.
  
• Merrill downgraded shares of Wells Fargo and Company (NYSE: WFC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect higher credit losses and valuation and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Sell from Neutral to reflect the company's "weak" revenue growth.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• B. Riley downgraded shares of Iris International Inc (NASDAQ: IRIS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Soleil downgraded ExpressJet Holdings Inc (NYSE: XJT) to sell from Hold.
  
• Calyon downgraded Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) and Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (NYSE: DO) to Add from Buy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Capital (ACAS), Doral Financial (DRL), E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and Family Dollar (FDO) were today's noteworthy downgrade:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) to Hold from Buy citing the slowing M&A market and risk characteristics of the company.

• Soleil downgraded Doral Financial (NYSE: DRL) to Sell from Hold, on the belief that the recent reverse stock split will increase short-selling activity and discourage speculative buying.

• E-Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) was cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS, citing deteriorating trends in the credit/mortgage markets, lack of near-term catalysts; the firm does not see an M&A deal occurring near-term.

• Goldman downgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Neutral from Buy, citing weakness in the low-end consumer and increased pressure from Wal-Mart (WMT)...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Wachovia downgraded Tween Brands (NYSE: TWB) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

• Deutsche Bank cut Pearson (NYSE: PSO) to Hold from Buy.

• Matrix downgraded Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required

With daily reports in the financial press about the collapse of subprime lending, and the precarious position that lower-income Americans are finding themselves in, there's one group of retailers that may be destined to profit: Dollar stores. As people have to scrimp and save more to cover their ballooning mortgage payments, they may look to these discounters for household staples.

In addition, these companies are messing with big box retailers like Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) with competitive pricing and a smaller, more user friendly store-format.

Demographic trends are also helpful. Incomes at the lower-end are growing slowly and, as the baby boomer population ages, budget constraints may make these discounters more attractive.

These companies also tend to have simple business models, high turnover, and fairly predictable cash flows. While the private equity bull market appears to have waned, attractively valued dollar stores may still be attractive to some firms. KKR recently acquired Dollar General for $7.3 billion.

If you think dollar-stores have a bright future, you have a few investment options.

Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) has settled shareholder lawsuits relating to the backdating of stock options issued to executives at the company. Under the terms of the settlement, Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Levine, President and Chief Operating Officer R. James Kelly, board member George Mahoney and executive C. Martin Sowers will give up a total of 210,000 stock options.

The company will also institute corporate governance reforms including the adoption of a majority-vote policy for uncontested elections of directors and the election of two additional independent directors.

Here's what bothers me: The company will be taking a charge of $5.7 million related to the settlement, including $3.5 million to cover the attorney's fees of the shareholders who brought the lawsuits.

This is my question: Given that the company clearly had ineffective internal controls that allowed top executives to receive backdated stock options, why should the company's shareholders have to pick up the tab for the legal fees? CEO Howard Levine made more than $3.1 million last year. Since he and other executives and directors were the ones responsible for options backdating, why shouldn't they pay legal fees?

It looks like discount retailer Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) will be losing one of its own to Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO). The dollar-store retailer has announced that Wook Lee will be filling the newly created position of senior vice president of global sourcing for Family Dollar. Lee was formerly global vice president of production service at Target Corp. and will take over the reigns at Family Dollar in the areas of developing the company's sourcing strategy.

It's kind of hard to think that a senior sourcing expert inside one of the recent success stories in discount retailing (Target) would leave to join Family Dollar, but it's plausible -- and I'm sure Family Dollar paid handsomely to get Lee on board. Are the sales of dollar-type stores going to be on the rise soon? Most likely, yes. When researching retail pricing at Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, I'm amazed that the pricing is so low compared to even Wal-Mart's pricing structure.

I thought it might be interesting to present a comparison between the two best known dollar store operations. Both Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO) and Dollar General (NYSE:DG) are well known for their penny pinching product packed stores but in a financial sense how are these two discount chains faring within the far flung retail world and how do they compare to one another? With reckless abandon I have chosen to dive deep into the darkest reaches of the Internet to draw some insight on the dollar store world.

Dollar General, a Fortune 500 discount retailer, has been in operation since 1955 and currently operates 8,309 stores. The Dollar General website predicates the company's mission upon the statement, "Dollar General stores offer convenience and value to customers, by offering consumable basic items that are frequently used and replenished, such as food, snacks, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies, as well as a selection of basic apparel, housewares and seasonal items at everyday low prices."

Family Dollar began operations in 1958 and is a part of the Fortune 500 Index. Currently, Family Dollar operates over 6,200 stores which are especially located to serve Family Dollar's middle to lower income target clientele. Their mission statement as presented on the Family Dollar website is a three part declaration of value: "For our customers, a compelling place to shop . . . by providing convenience and low prices. For our associates, a compelling place to work . . . by providing exceptional opportunities and rewards for achievement. For our investors, a compelling place to invest . . . by providing outstanding returns."

Both of these dollar store operations appear to make it clear that it is their intent to offer discounted retail merchandise in first class fashion. Both companies have a drive and focus which place the average American at the heart of their mission and both companies also seek to present their investors with consistently healthy returns. And the more I read about these two compact discount retailers, the more I get the message that they are far less concerned about competing with each other than they are about trimming the edges off of their mutual competitor Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

Is America one big boring cliche after another? To many foreigners it is, since most of our shopping -- a very big reason for tourism anywhere -- is done at cookie-cutter chain stores. Whether it be home furnishings, consumer electronics, food or baby clothes, there is a chain store (and many different ones at that) dedicated to feeding the commerce need we have for every possible segment of living. Capitalism at its best, you might say. Or, its worst, if you're into the "experience" of shopping rather than the "task" of shopping.

For the most part, done are the days of the "mom and pop" store. The chains are everywhere, ready to sell, serve and provide anything they possibly can while collecting as much information about you as they can. Now, I'm not necessarily against chain stores; as the biggest force in the world's largest economy (at least two-thirds of it) runs from the same consumers who keep these chain stores humming night and day.

Chains like the following list are present in almost every large American city (get ready...deep breath) Bed Bath & Beyond; Linens-n-Things; Barnes & Noble and Borders; PetSmart and Petco; Circuit City and Best Buy; Lowe's and Home Depot; CVS and Walgreens; Wal-Mart, Target and Costco; Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree. Need more? How about the Apple Store and Pottery Barn, the Gap and Ann Taylor, Banana Republic and DSW, Starbucks and McDonald's. Now that's a lot of chain stores. What would we do without all these chain stores? Probably we'd all pay higher prices while actually enjoying the shopping experience again. We might even form social attachments to our local merchants again. But, the American consumers' motto continues to be "price, price, and -- well -- price."

That's why we have chain stores.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Verizon (VZ), Family Dollar (FDO) and Kroger (KR) top today's extensive list of downgrades.

• Verizon was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup. The firm sees greater earnings power along with a better valuation at AT&T (T), and they believe Verizon has risk to their estimates through 2008.
• Banc of America downgraded Family Dollar to Neutral from Buy. BofA cited the increasingly competitive environment for the downgrade.
• Banc of America also expects consumable pricing to come under pressure due to initiatives at Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), and downgraded Kroger (KR) to Sell from Neutral.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup downgraded Mastercard (MA) to Sell from Hold. With Mastercard shares up over +50% the last two months, the firm recommends waiting for a 10% pullback before buying shares.
• UBS assumed coverage of Sprint-Nextel (S) and downgraded them to Neutral from Buy.
• And finally, Prudential downgraded PNC Bank (PNC) to Underweight from Neutral following the acquisition by Mercantile Bancshares (MRBK). The firm believes the acquisition negatively impacts estimates and destroys value.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).