TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the value guys threw this party, so respect the hosts.
Sometimes you just feel beaten into being positive. You just say, "OK, enough, I will accept the positives as they are being put out, not as I believe they are."
That's how I felt yesterday about Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The company put out financials yesterday that looked better than expected, and for once I didn't question whether they were.
I didn't because the earnings from so many of the feckless players -- the Fannies (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), the Washington Mutuals (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) the MBIAs (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and the Ambacs (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) -- are all being greeted with a bizarre positive response, so bizarre that I bought into the "better than expected" rhetoric because I don't want to fight the value guys who are in control right now.
Elsewhere on the site, Doug Kass has been putting up some very strong arguments that numbers from the likes of Freddie are less than meets the eye.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.
AIG's (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) making everyone's life difficult today. That's in part because AIG had been the biggest proponent of "super senior," meaning they repeatedly said that their collateralized debt obligation (CDO) exposure was of the kind that was intelligent, measured and thoughtful. They talked endlessly about how their due diligence made the difference and that unlike all of the other buyers, they kicked the tires three times and never bought the plain ol' CDOs. Then they brought in professors from Wharton to be sure that even if all heck broke loose and they were being too aggressive, they would be hedged.
They also were the first to give you the percentages of how much could go bad and that even in the worst-case scenario, they were overcapitalized. And, most important, they were insurers, no need to mark to market, they can play it all out.
Plus, they touted their own struggles. They made the point that because of the turmoil at the top, they hadn't bought any bad stuff and stopped buying residential real estate products after 2005. What they did buy -- they assured us in that big teach-in dog-and-pony show in December -- was the extra-special nature of their particular buys and that, unlike everyone else, risk officers scrutinized every single piece of paper that went into their super senior insurance, meaning only the top-top part of a CDO-squared, the part where everything had to default ahead of it; they made a point of how impossible that would be.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) is recently trading at $25.80 in pre-open trading, below its close of $28.29.
FNM reported Q1 EPS ($2.57) versus consensus estimates of (81c). FNM announced plans to raise $6 billion through common and preferred offerings. OFHEO will reduce FNM's capital requirement to 15% from 20%. FNM will reduce its 3Q dividend to 25c.
FNM May option implied volatility of 92 is above its 26-week average of 67 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
The New York Times reports that Federal National Mortgage (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) have a tiny sliver of capital to support a mountain of mortgages. To put it in perspective, their level of borrowing is almost twice that of the enormously over-leveraged investment banking and hedge fund industries. With the collapse of the housing market, Freddie and Fannie are in trouble. And when you get to the scale of these two, so is America.
As I posted last month, it could cost $1 trillion to bail out Fannie and Freddie. These hybrid organizations are a key cog in the mortgage industrial complex (MIC) that has gotten the world into its current capital crisis. Fannie and Freddie buy "conforming" mortgages from their originators and then package and sell the mortgages as securities. But these two have a mere $83 billion in capital to support $5 trillion worth of debt and other commitments.
This 60-to-1 ratio is almost twice the 32-to-1 ratio of the highly leverage investment banks and hedge funds. And like any company with hard-to-value assets, Fannie and Freddie have unrealized losses. In their case, those total $20 billion -- they've already taken $9 billion worth so far this year. By 2007 they had guaranteed or invested in $717 billion of subprime and Alt-A loans, up from almost none in 2000. And many of those are not worth that much.
CNNMoney reports that McGraw-Hill Co.'s (NYSE: MHP) Standard & Poor's (S&P) forecasts the possibility of a $1 trillion bailout of Federal National Mortgage (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) -- government sponsored purchasers of pools of loans which package them into securities. Specifically, S&P forecasts that a bailout of these two -- known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- would cost -- in a worst case scenario -- between $420 billion and $1.1 trillion of taxpayer's money. This would represent several times the $250 billion Savings & Loan bailout by the first President Bush.
It's a bit ironic for S&P to be issuing this report. After all, it was among the ratings agencies that contributed to the problem in the first place. As I posted last August, the ratings agencies competed for enormous fees from investment banks to put their AAA ratings on issues of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Those AAA ratings caused naive MBS buyers to skip the kind of detailed analysis of their purchases that might have stopped the flow of dumb money into the MBS bubble that is now putting Fannie and Freddie at risk.
How did S&P arrive at this scary conclusion? Both companies are forecast to report more losses this year due to declining home prices and rising mortgage defaults. And according to Yale professor, Robert Schiller, "The real fundamental problem is real estate prices have been falling and they might fall substantially more. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) and Fannie and Freddie never considered the possibility of a massive real estate correction."
A newly published report by Standard & Poor's said that the performance of organizations such as Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, could directly affect the U.S. economy and the country's credit rating, especially if they have to be rescued by the government, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Credit Markets" column.
Seagate Technology LLC (NYSE: STX), a hard drive maker, filed a patent infringement suit in San Francisco against STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) over four patents related to technology used to store data on computer chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Financial Times reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is allowing private equity groups such as Apollo, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG that are bidding for up to $12B of its leveraged loans to 'cherry-pick' from a wide range of assets with different credit ratings and prices.
Regional home loan banks will be allowed to boost holdings of mortgage-backed securities by more than $100 billion, federal regulators announced Monday, (pdf) in still another effort to both increase liquidity to and stabilize the mortgage market.
The decision by the Federal Housing Finance Board enables banks in the Federal Home Loan Bank system to increase their holdings of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) securities. The FHFB said it will let banks use their existing capital to increase their holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities for two years. The purchases are restricted to securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The move comes one week after the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eased capital requirements for the two home mortgage purchasers, enabling them to add another $200 billion into the mortgage market.
Further, while the overall combined capital infusion amount, about $350 billion, represents a fraction of the $4.5 trillion in mortgage backed securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, economists generally agree the money represents a non-insignificant piece of the housing recovery puzzle. Housing Sector Analysis: Another positive data point for the U.S. housing sector, which brings the total positive data points this Monday to two, a record of late for the beleaguered sector. The additional capital amount is small, in market terms, but every additional capital amount, or investor, helps, to use a cliché. Still, investors (and homebuyers) should keep in mind that the nation faces at least another two quarters of housing sector consolidation, with a 9.6-month supply of existing homes for sale documenting that reality. Until inventory levels drop for several months in a row, economists and analysts will be reluctant to make bolder statements about the housing sector's health.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Abbott Lab, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Micromet were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe their earlier concerns have been addressed. Past concerns included the potential for a negative outcome from the FDA panel on Xience and slowing prescription growth of lead drug Humira.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) were raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette citing recent government actions to stabilize the mortgage markets.
Micromet (NASDAQ: MITI) was upgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Sector Perform as they expect positive data for its lead candidate, MT103, by year-end.
OTHER UPGRADES:
ThinkEquity raised Atheros Comm (NASDAQ: ATHR) to Buy from Accumulate.
Goldman upgraded US Steel (NYSE: X) to Buy from Neutral.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
If you thought holding a rally after a huge day was too much, you weren't too far off the mark. Many people ask over and over if this is a real bear market or not. By a classic definition that may still be up in the air, but this is what every bear market feels like. It also goes to show that you almost want to sell every time you feel good about things and then buy when you feel like everything couldn't get any worse. Hearing traders and market technicians say, "Sell the rallies" is becoming quite commonplace. Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) was the largest US IPO ever with its shares soaring after their unprecedented debut yesterday at $44 per share. Investors see promise in electronic payments as shares rose 33% on its IPO debut. Here's the drop for the major averages:
DJIA 12,099.66 (-293.00; -2.36%)
S&P 500 1,298.42 (-32.32; -2.43%)
NASDAQ 2,209.96 (-58.30; -2.57%)
10YR-TBond 3.362% (-0.089)
There were many names on the 52-week lows, but many formerly hot names you wouldn't have guessed. If you look at the major collapse that was seen in the commodity stocks (and commodity prices) that have been major leaders, you'd think they were almost exposed to CDO's too. Oil fell $6.02 to $102.48 per barrel, and that took down Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) by more than 4% to $84.43; Gold fell down over $59.00 to $944.70 per ounce late in the day and that took Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) down 8.7% to $45.25. The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was also a huge loser as traders took off more of their agriculture trades with a drop of 11% to $97.25
To help stabilize the housing market, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bush Administration is planning to help create fresh funding for mortgages. The plan, which still requires final approval, is said to ease an excess-capital requirement for government sponsored organizations Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that a merger between Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) and Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) may be derailed after Delta pilots notified executives they remain unable to reach an agreement with Northwest pilots on how to integrate pilot ranks should the two combine.
The Financial Times reported that BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) won a $715M order to supply nearly 1,500 mine-resistant vehicles from the U.S. government.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Chinese government has locked out Australian mining giants BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) from selling iron ore into its daily spot market, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. Mining sources said that the decision may have already cost Australia up to $300M in export profits.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Moral hazard is a nice notion, but the market doesn't care. The Fed needs to take real steps to fix this problem now.
Memo to Fed: Start bailing. There is a remarkable disconnect between the Federal Reserve's "plan" and what needs to be done and done now.
First, the Fed seems determined to not "bail out" anyone. But we need bailing. We need bailing now. We need them to go into the markets and buy hundreds of billions of dollars of Government-Sponsored Enterprise paper, Fannie and Freddie. That will address the inventory issue of all the firms on the Street and put needed capital into the system.
They have to drop this whole issue of who might be helped, and they have to prevent the barter system from overtaking us.
It's remarkable that even at this late hour they are tinkering with a quarter of a point to the discount rate.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the latest proposal leans on private industry and the states, two groups that already failed.
"The plan, which relies primarily on state regulators and private industry to tighten their oversight of financial markets, calls on states to issue nationwide licensing standards for mortgage brokers."
That quote, from the lead story in The New York Times, headed "White House Offers Plan to Ward off Credit Crisis," is exactly what is wrong with every response from this government to the crisis we are in.
First, the state regulators are a joke, have been a joke and always will be a joke. We have had state regulators, some of them actually attempting to be good at their jobs, but this real estate industry is always more powerful than state government, so it is a hopeless proposition. All of the problems in this business may have started with mortgage brokers putting people into mortgages that they shouldn't have, but that would have simply stopped had the Federal Reserve said that it didn't see the wisdom in 2 and 28 loans. They pushed them, didn't believe in derivative packaging, and thought that loans should be kept on the books of the banks UNLESS bought by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take).
To ease concerns about their balance sheets, the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" reported that Fannie Mae, or Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), and Freddie Mac, or Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), would have to issue over $10B of new stock in 2008. The benefits to such a raise would be helping the housing market and staying the course. In the end, the answer may lie in the fact that the government is more interested in supporting the housing market, and not worrying about the shareholders.
The Financial Times reported that the Bombay High Court has delayed a court challenge by Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) against Indian tax authorities until June 23 in order to allow changes to tax laws to come into force. Indian tax authorities are looking for Vodafone to pay around $2B in taxes for its acquisition of Hutchison Essar.
OTHER PAPERS:
Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) may join a Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG)-led alliance called OpenSocial that is working to develop a common set of standards in order for developers to create programs that run on Web sites and social networks, the New York Times reported.
Japan is investigating a possible defect in Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod, a government official said. The Associated Press reported that the investigation was launched after one of the popular digital music players reportedly shot out sparks while recharging.
Groucho Marx once remarked that whenever things start to look really dark, remain calm, don't panic, and above all, turn on a light.
Given the barrage of financial stresses battering the credit and equity markets these days, consumers, economists and investors alike could use some of Groucho's levity, and some light. In this case the light may appear in the form of the Federal Housing Administration.
What's old is suddenly new
The Federal Housing Administration, the once-viewed-as-antiquated, irrelevant Great Depression-era government agency, is suddenly emerging as the centerpiece of government efforts to bolster the U.S. housing market, reported The Wall Street Journal (subscription required.)
The FHA has become the cheapest, and in many cases, the only alternative for borrowers who can make only a small down payment, and the agency is rapidly gaining market share.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the value guys threw this party, so respect the hosts. 
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Groucho Marx once remarked that whenever things start to look really dark, remain calm, don't panic, and above all, turn on a light.
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
