This week, some apparel and accessory producers and retailers offer a look at how they've been doing between early summer's economic stimulus spending and the coming holiday season. While Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) reported higher earnings last week, Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR), Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EBHI), Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (NYSE: KCP), and K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) all reported net losses as consumers pulled back on spending over the summer due to higher fuel prices and other economic worries. The expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial for such companies scheduled to report this week don't look much different; i.e., a bright spot or two among lower expectations overall.
Hip retailer Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post earnings 22.9% higher than a year ago, to $0.35 per share, on revenue of $475.9 million (+26.4%). The Philadelphia-based company already said that same-store sales in the quarter were 10% higher. Urban Outfitters has beat expectations in recent quarters, by 11.5% in the previous quarter, and analysts on average recommend buying URBN. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $16.61 per share on Friday, and are down 29.5% from a year ago. Other companies expected to report more modest earnings growth in the coming week include watch and accessory maker Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), parent of such discount retail chains as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. These three companies have tended to top analysts estimates in recent quarters, and Fossil and TJX ended the week near their 52-week lows.
While Los Angeles-based American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) had a strong second quarter, the casual wear maker is expected to report $0.13 per share earnings for the third quarter, the same as in the year-ago period. And analysts anticipate that Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) will report that profits fell 16.4% to $0.51 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion (+1.9%). Though same-store sales for October fell 9%, the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based company reaffirmed its third-quarter forecast. Kohl's has offered positive surprises in recent quarters, topping estimates by 5.6% in the previous quarter. The consensus recommendation remains to buy KSS. Shares have been climbing after reaching a 52-week low in late October, but are still down 32.8% from a year ago.
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) that Levi Strauss will debut its new "Levi's Engineered Garments" label next week, beginning with four Bloomingdales stores. The line is a collaboration with Engineered Garments, a New York label.
The line includes $235 button-fly 501 jeans, $235 hunting pants, and $185 Army shirts. The premium priced products are a step up from the company's recent Capital E effort, with prices ranging from $138-195.
But more importantly, it's a big step up from the more moderately priced (but still high quality) offerings that have been the company's bread and butter since 1853. I'm skeptical about Levi's ability to convince people to pay premium-denim prices for a brand with such a long history of more mainstream offerings, but the line's existence is indicative of at least one thing: the brass at at Levi Strauss Inc. views high-end denim as the future, and wants a piece.
If they're right about that -- especially in the current consumer environment -- it's bullish for True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: TRLG), the top publicly-traded high-end jean company out there. I don't think Levi's poses much of a threat as far as market share and, if the pie continues to expand, True Religion should prosper.
This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about Bloomies below in the comments.
If Macy's (NYSE: M) is the crossroads of all department stores, then Bloomingdale's is the Eastside hub of the cosmopolitan individual. At one time the old slogan, "All cars transfer to Bloomingdale's," beat Macy's to the chase as New York City's 58th Street subway station on the Lexington Avenue line was built in its basement in 1913.
The flagship store is located at 59th and Lex, where the surrounding affluent neighborhood used to supply most of its shoppers, particularly in the early 1970s. Even today, the fashion bonanza exhibited in its store windows draws a crowd while the gleaming black and white art deco interior lures shoppers in the door.
The department store chain has long since spread around the country, but Bloomingdale's has remained a draw for younger professionals seeking exciting new fashion trends. It's not surprising that at some point its hip, young clientele started affectionately calling it "Bloomies."
This post is part of a series on celebrity spokespeople who ended up doing serious harm to the brands they were hired to promote, or vice versa. See how we rank the 20 top spokesperson fiascos.
The cliché of the pencil-thin model is made corporeal in the body of supermodel Kate Moss, the waif that launched a thousand brands. Among those brands tying their fortune to her size 0 sails were H&M (STO:HMB), Burberry (LON:BRBY) and Chanel.
Leading the retreat were the brands to whom she had lent her good name, the same H&M, Burberry and Chanel. Each invoked the morals clause to terminate her contract, making that a multi-million dollar line of coke.
So that was the end of Moss, right? Think again. In the fashion world, morals transgressions are so, like, yesterday. Within a year, Moss had signed new contracts with Calvin Klein and other top fashions brands. Brendan Behan, who said there is no such thing as bad publicity (except your own obituary) knew what he was talking about, at least in the fashion world.
The mall itself, which is scheduled to reopen in the fall of 2009, is seeing a major renovation from an enclosed shopping center to a three-level, 550,000-square-foot open-air retail plaza linking to the Third Street Promenade.
Leading fashion specialty retailer Nordstrom has signed a letter of intent to open a three-level, 122,000-square-foot store in the fall of 2010. "The extraordinary appeal of Nordstrom is a great match for this exceptional market, and for what we believe will be a one-of-a-kind retail project two blocks from the beach in downtown Santa Monica," Randy Brant, executive vice president, real estate, for Macerich stated.
How is this for a post-op? "The fashions were too forward," said apparel industry analyst Kurt Barnard. Merry-Go-Round was a huge clothing chain targeted at teens and young adults, one in which (I couldn't make this up folks) my best friend in high school worked, gaining her great respect amongst the shopping-obsessed teens we were.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Merry-Go-Round was the darling of Wall Street and the suburbs where Jessica sold $70 rayon shirts for minimum wage plus commission. Its 536 stores comprised Merry-Go-Round, Dejaiz, Cignal, and Chess King, the latter an acquisition made a few years before its demise. One blogger called the apparel "faux upscale" and wrote of the chain's merchandise, "the cheesiest, sleaziest, ugliest and most eye-searing '80s clothes you could possibly find. Velcro closures? Check. Mesh designs? Check. Excessive use of leather? Check. Odd-colored thick v-neck sweater vests? Check."
Sadly, the mid-nineties teen did not want to wear v-neck sweater vests, mesh, or paisley rayon blouses. According to the New York Times, the 1990s teen wanted ripped jeans from Wal-Mart. The company had expanded too fast, too furious, changing merchandising strategies so frequently that its edgy consumers couldn't keep up. The business was so overtly trendy it tipped over the edge. Merry-Go-Round filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 1994, but couldn't stay afloat and liquidated all its assets in 1996 when its chief backer, Fidelity Management, pulled its support.
The music stopped for Merry-Go-Round, and all the mesh-covered horsies fell off. None of the children, it seems, cried.
Let us know in the comments what you miss about Merry-Go-Round. And be sure to check out other Companies That Have Vanished.
A piece in the USA Today reports that top retail chains have improved their supply chain management to get the hot new fashions in stores more quickly before.
Sounds great, right? Maybe not. According to the article. "With the tighter economy squeezing retailers industrywide, several companies have hit on a successful formula for propping up earnings: They're speeding up the time it takes to get the latest fashions into their stores."
Obviously increased efficiency is great and there's nothing not to like about improved ordering, fewer markdowns, etc. But it could be creating a false sense of optimism if it's allowing for the frontloading of sales. $30 million in sales in the first quarter and then $10 million in the second is the same as $20 million in each quarter: but if you don't know about the differences in inventory situations, you could have a false sense of optimism at the end of the first quarter.
Time will tell whether better supply chain management is messing with the distribution of sales throughout the year.
Shares of companies like Coach (NYSE: COH) were flying high when more people than ever were flocking to waste their money on stuff they couldn't afford.
Right at the top of the market, predictably, all the lower-end retailers thought they'd get into the act. Gap (NYSE: GPS)'s Banana Republic introduced a high-end line, and so did Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH) and AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). According to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), the economic downturn gave the companies a strong rebuke. Cache is closing some of its Cache Luxe stores and Coldwater Creek is giving up on its high-end aspirations.
But I don't think it's the economic downturn that doomed these product launches. Luxury clothing is in a tough spot, but it's certainly fared a lot better than upper-middle market companies like Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Coldwater Creek. Rather, I think companies are using a pretty familiar tactic: blame failed strategies on the economy and minimize the impact of tactical errors made by seven-figure executives.
Here's why the strategy failed: taking a brand and raising the quality/price-point is extremely difficult. The reverse is easy, but trying to convince people to pay Coach-like prices for Banana Republic clothing -- even if it's of similar quality -- is a strategy that's destined to fail. Banana Republic has established itself at a certain price point and while people would be thrilled to get the brand at a lower price, most people willing to pay more will want a bona fide luxury label.
At one time, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) wanted to be a trendy place to buy clothes. It thought that would fatten margins and bring in higher end customers. It never worked. The middle class did not appear to warm to the idea of buying fashion at a warehouse.
The largest retailer has seen the error of its ways and a number of people in the apparel unit will pay for the company's mistakes. According toThe New York Times, "in a major revamping of its sluggish clothing business, Wal-Mart Stores will shut two divisions at its headquarters in Arkansas, eliminate dozens of positions and move dozens more to New York City."
Selling clothes is a $30 billion business for Wal-Mart, so it will not do anything to exit that part of its operation. But, it clearly has no interest in trying to be the "trend setter" by locating the latest fashions and hoping it can present them with appeal down the aisle from the guns and ammo section.
Now, it will just sell clothes, the kinds of shirts, pants, and dresses that most people who don't care about designer labels wear.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
It's been awhile since shareholders of Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) have had any good news. In the past year, the company's stock has declined from north of $45 per share to Monday's closing price of $16.40: the lowest the stock has traded since 1998.
If anyone can save the struggling fashion house, it's the man they just signed to be creative director of the company's flagship brand: Isaac Mizrahi. You can be sure he didn't come cheap, but he's just what they need. After all, this is the guy who actually managed to make Target (NYSE: TGT) a cool place to shop for clothes.
Liz Claiborne has a lot of potential. In the press release announcing the signing, Mizrahi himself summed it up best: "Liz Claiborne is an American fashion icon. Her clothes were not only beautiful, not only smart, they were revolutionary. She invented separates, and invented an entirely new category in the department store. She made fashion friendly and accessible and in doing so she became every woman's best friend. These are all ideas I treasure and I'm honored to have the opportunity to build on this fantastic legacy and excited to reestablish the label as a must-have." (emphasis mine)
There are no sure things in fashion, but at a discount to its book value and a low price/earnings multiple, you have to like the chances of a Mizrahi-led Liz Claiborne line delivering value to shareholders for the first time in a long time.
You know the fashion industry is in trouble when one of the hottest-selling trends is a rubberized sandal-shoe named after a reptile.
According to the New York Times, sales of women's apparel were down 6% for the first half of the Christmas season. However sales of men's clothing were up 4.5%.
Experts have been quick to blame the usual suspects for the women's clothing weakness: economic woes, housing troubles, rising gas prices -- but that doesn't fully explain it. Electronic sales are up 5.8% and sales of luxury goods have soared 10.8% -- the struggles of Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) notwithstanding.
While holiday sales have been lukewarm, the expected growth of 4%, the lowest rate in 5 years, indicates that there is some other factor driving the slowdown in women's clothing.
According to Fortune, the problem is that there are no must-have women's fashion products and trends to loosen nervous purse strings. Skinny jeans just aren't enough to drive nervous consumers into the stores.
This could actually be bullish for the industry: The fact that the major factor driving the slowdown appears to be within their control -- as opposed to broader macroeconomic factors -- means that they could bounce back stronger next year if they get some hotter threads in the pipeline.
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) was one of the best-performing stocks of 2007 until it hit the wall after releasing its September 30th quarterly results. The stock began 2007 at $20.68, ran up to a high of $75 and now sits at $45. The December, March and June quarterly results were spectacular, exceeding both top line and bottom line expectations. The company and analysts raised expectations for forward quarters and the hedge funds that were short the shares thinking the company is just "a fad", got annihilated.
The September quarter results were by all measure excellent as Crocs reported revenues of $256 million, up 130% from the previous year and earnings were up 144% to 66 cents per share. The consensus estimates were for earnings in the 63 cent to 64 cent range and revenue was expected at $253-$258 million. With revenue not "crushing" expectations, the stock was crushed, down from $75 to $32.
In spite of the stock coming down dramatically, many portfolio managers that missed the first run up from $21 to $75 had an excellent opportunity to begin buying the shares. Many have. The stock has rebuilt its value to the $45 level and is still inexpensive versus any traditional valuation methodology. Street expectations for earnings this year is $1.98 and $2.70 for 2008, a solid 35% growth. Revenue will come in this year at $830-$840 million and expectations for 2008 are set for $1.150 billion, again up 35-40%.
Tonight could prove to be one of those rare times when men and women everywhere will not be fighting over what to watch on television as the nation tunes in to the 2007 Victoria's Secret fashion show. What will be slightly different this time around will be the importance that the show places on its Pink line, a collection of clothes aimed at the college and young teen crowd [subscription required].
Sales at Victoria's Secret have been struggling lately as a result of declining mall visitors, as well as a couple of nasty fashion mistakes at its stores. There has been one bright spot, however, the company's Pink line. The retail line includes items such as colorful underwear, pajamas, clothing and accessories, all aimed at a younger-than-traditional Victoria's Secret audience.
The retailer's parent company, Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), has already posted a dismal 48% drop in net income for its third quarter, and has warned investors not to expect too much out of its fourth quarter results either.
You don't have to be a fashionista to know that French fashion has a reputation for being uppity and tres expensive. They don't call it haute couture for nothing.
But according to the Wall Street Journal, "With the euro reaching new records against the dollar, U.S. shoppers are finding European designer labels even more expensive than in past years. But a young crop of French designers is now trying to prove that style doesn't have to be so costly."
Unlike the traditional fashion houses selling $1,000 bags, less expensive French labels are outsourcing manufacturing to keep costs down -- a big no-no in traditional fashion circles, where local production is considered key to retaining cachet. Some are also taking the hit on the euro's rise, rather than passing the expense on to American consumers.
Paul & Joe is even -- gasp -- designing a collection for Target (NYSE: TGT).
Will Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) be able to capitalize on the trend toward more affordable French fashions, as it struggles with its efforts to sell more upscale clothing? Doubtful. If outsourcing production in France hurts cachet, designing clothes for Wal-Mart, the international symbol of corporate avarice and apathy toward people, would be fashion suicide.
Gisele Bundchen is proving to be a shrewd analyst of the U.S. dollar's weakness. When Bundchen signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products for Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), she demanded payment in euros. She'll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer's new fragrance.
"Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar," Patricia Bundchen, the model's twin sister and manager in Brazil, said in a telephone interview in September from Sao Paulo.
Those Bundchens are smart cookies! Too bad I can't say the same for Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and his strong dollar policy.