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The next McDonald's is Chipotle Mexican Grill

This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.

The most impressive game-changer story in the fast food industry over the past 50 years is indisputably McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). Founder Ray Kroc was a visionary and pioneer in serving customers hot fast food at a reasonable price. Thirty thousand units later, McDonald's is still a growth story. But the better growth story is Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), so much so, in fact, that McDonald's was an early investor in Chipotle! (McDonald's no longer owns shares of Chipotle.)

McDonald's went through some execution issues in the mid-1990s through 2003. The fast food industry was taking some hits from nutritionists, and the quality of food was suspect. McDonald's re-tooled its entire operation from store front to menu offerings. The standard hamburgers and those delicious french fries are still on the menu, but McDonald's has added a variety of salads, wraps and other healthier options. In the past five years the stock has nearly tripled in value, validating McDonald's make-over.

Chipotle, founded in 1993, has not had to re-tool or redefine itself. The freshest of ingredients, naturally raised poultry and beef are highlights of the limited, but superb menu. Chipotle is a favorite of almost every demographic group, from teenagers to the elderly. Chipotle has succeeded in offering the finest fresh Mexican food, but not at the cheapest price. The average ticket at Chipotle comes in near $9. The company recently raised prices at different levels depending on geography. Sales have not slowed a bit in spite of the price increases.

Continue reading The next McDonald's is Chipotle Mexican Grill

McDonald's same-store sales show that the clown still has clout

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) announced its same-store sales results for the month of April Thursday, and the data indicate a healthy fast-food business ("healthy fast food" -- isn't that an oxymoron?).

Global comps as a whole increased 5%. Comps for European locations increased 6.3%, and the Asia/Pacific/Middle East/Africa segment saw a 7.8% rise in same-store sales. McDonald's restaurants in the States increased an anemic 2%. The weak domestic sales really need to be addressed so that they can pull more weight and add to the cool story that is McDonald's.

The stock has been a pretty decent performer over the last several months, rising over 6% over the three-month timeframe, and over the one-month period, it is up over 7%. And the longer-period returns from the past are even more impressive. Imagine how McDonald's stock would perform if management figured out how to get people to visit the U.S.'s Golden Arches more often. I suppose April's performance should be praised since March saw a decline in U.S. comps, as this article makes plain, but that depreciation was the first one in five years, and that says to me that McDonald's needs to be careful.

It's all about the marketing, of course. There are a lot of choices out there -- Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) -- so I think promotion of the brand is key. Some will disagree and say that menus and pricing are the big drivers -- they are important, don't get me wrong, but perhaps McDonald's needs to take a cue from Burger King and its campaign with the creepy-king thing -- those commercials are clever. Still, if this comps reports says anything, it says that you shouldn't count the clown out -- McDonald's is a blue-chip stock that is near a 52-week high, and not only is it a great long-term/core holding, but it's also quite possibly an interesting shorter-term idea as well.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Burger King's earnings up thanks to that creepy mascot?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) may be the big brand name in the fast-food industry, but don't discount Burger King (NYSE: BKC). The King reported its fiscal Q3 numbers on Thursday, and they were pretty regal indeed.

Revenues increased 10%, and earnings per share did even better, rising 20% to 30 cents (that beat earnings by three pennies, says Briefing.com). Now, when talking about retail stores and fast-food joints, the issue of same-store sales always comes up, since it's such an important element to consider (be sure to keep in mind that comps must always be put in an overall context, especially if you are only measuring a one-month timeframe). Global comps increased 5.8% for the quarter, a good showing for Burger King which wants to become a force to be reckoned with around the world. The domestic side of things isn't doing too badly either as comps in the United States and Canada moved up 5.4%. Restaurant margins, however, decreased due to the challenging commodity-cost environment we all live in nowadays. Otherwise, I see these earnings as very positive for Burger King, and I am bullish on the stock.

Continue reading Burger King's earnings up thanks to that creepy mascot?

McDonald's crushes earnings estimates

McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) continues to amaze investors.

The home of the Quarter Pounder today reported net income of $946.1 million, or 81 cents a share, compared with $762.4 million, or 62 cents, a year earlier, according to the earnings press release. Revenue increased to $5.61 billion. Wall Street analysts were expected profit of 70 cents on revenue of $5.44 billion.

Gains outside the U.S. helped off-set the weak performance of its domestic business

"For the quarter, Europe and Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa both delivered double-digit revenue and operating income growth," the company said. "Europe's revenues rose 23% (11% in constant currencies) during the quarter to nearly $2.4 billion, fueled by an 11.1% comparable sales increase – the highest in the segment's history."

Meanwhile, the U.S. business saw comparable sales rise 2.9% and operating income jump 5.9%. Weak consumer spending is hurting the chain, though, as March comparable sales were negative. The Illinois company, however, expects sales to rebound in April to a 2% to 2.5% gain.

Let's not forget about the coffee strategy, AKA "The Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) Killer." That's been a strong driver for breakfast traffic and should continue to do so for some time.

"Over the next 12 to 18 months, we're going to see coffee as a catalyst for sales," Thrivent Asset Management analyst Chris Scheurer told Bloomberg News.

This underscores why now is a good time for the great taste of McDonald's.

Will McDonald's report tasty earnings?

How is McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) holding up during the economic downturn?

The largest restaurant chain is expected to report profit of 70 cents per share on revenue of $5.4 billion, according to Thomson Financial. Their average price target for the company's stock is $62.64, above the $58.64 where it recently traded. Shares of the company are up about 20% as investors bet that the cost-conscious consumers would be attracted to cheap McDonald's food. Moreover, the company's cut rate, but delicious coffee continues to give Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) nightmares. This seems to be a recipe for success boosting comparable same-store sales by 11.7% in February.

McDonald's earnings will be a clear sign of how the consumer is holding up. Many are cutting back on dining out as evidenced by the decline in same-store sales at restaurants at diverse as Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc. (NASDAQ: RUTH) to Darden Restaurants Inc's. (NYSE: DRI) Red Lobster.

But thankfully for shareholders, McDonald's isn't solely reliant on its U.S. business. During the fourth quarter, sales rose by double digits outside its home country. The company should see strong sales group in Europe and emerging markets, according to a Lehman Brothers note quoted by the Associated Press.

Another good month for McDonald's (MCD)

There is a lot of talk swirling around Wall Street about the current economic slowdown, and just how hard it is going to hit businesses in the months ahead. But so for fast food giant McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), 2008 is looking pretty rosy.

After ending 2007 with a disappointing decline in same store sales, McDonald's has now shown two straight months of sales growth following today's announcement that it had a pretty impressive 11.7% jump in same-store sales during the month of February.

Its American sales saw an increase of 8.3%, while-same stores sales in Europe really took off, showing a jump of an amazing 15.4%. Last month, the company reported that January same-store sales rose by 5.7%.

Continue reading Another good month for McDonald's (MCD)

Will people go to KFC for nonfried chicken?

Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) has an exciting new plan to revive its sagging KFC chain: moving the emphasis away from fried chicken.

Now wait a minute you say: How can Kentucky FRIED CHICKEN possibly re-invent itself as what CEO hopes will be a "nonfried chicken platform."

I doubt that it can, although I understand the temptation. Fried chicken has become synonymous with poor health and KFC has tried to change that image by changing its name from Kentucky Fried Chicken to KFC.

Does Yum really think people are that stupid -- or that KFC will be able to re-establish itself as something other than a fried chicken joint? What's the point of even trying? That is KFC's brand. If you want to make it into a non-fried chicken restaurant, why not just start a new chain?

The fact is that KFC will in all probability sink or swim as a fried chicken restaurant -- radical reinventions of brands that are synonymous with one product almost never work.

Yum is trying to turn hula hoops into Furby's.

Wendy's says it's almost done with its strategic review

Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) handling of its review of strategic alternatives has been very strange from a PR perspective. Back in June, the company earned a place on TheStreet.com's "5 Dumbest Things on Wall Street" for its slew of press releases announcing that the company was for sale: "Under its latest effort to win over Wall Street, the company has taken to announcing once a month that it's up for sale."

With its stock down about 40%, no buyer has yet emerged for the company. Today Wendy's announced that the "Special Committee of its Board of Directors, which is reviewing the Company's strategic options, believes that it is in the final stages of its review process."

That's right: a press release saying nothing except that they're almost done with their review -- What does that even mean? 2 more days? 2 more months? They don't say but they caution investors that "there is no assurance that the process will result in any changes to the Company's current plans or when a specific announcement may be made."

The press release added: "The review process being undertaken by the Special Committee has taken longer than anticipated, primarily due to the continuing turmoil in the financial markets."

What goes unsaid is that the stock's sharp decline in value would seemingly make it more attractive as an acquisition.

But with the stock down more than 7% today, it doesn't look like investors are betting on that.

Is McDonald's too smelly to compete with Starbucks?

"The place reeks of fries and beef." That's the charmingly candid assessment of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) from Chris Dannen at Fast Company's blog. As you can probably guess, he's none too impressed with Mickey D's plan to open 14,000 new coffee bars in its U.S. stores.

For Dannen, it's a pretty simple question. Will people buy more fancy coffee drinks in a fast food restaurant that smells of fry grease? He doesn't think so. As a result, McDonald's coffee bars -- which the company hopes will bring in an extra $1 billion in revenue -- will be defeated by the "sweet stink of the flagship fare," namely, Big Macs and those never-decomposing French fries. That's good news if you're a Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) shareholder.

Continue reading Is McDonald's too smelly to compete with Starbucks?

Burger King wants a piece of China

Management at Burger King (NYSE:BKC) believes that it can increase its sales in Asia, especially China, to improve overseas sales above their current third of overall company revenue.

It will begin opening stores in big Asia counties at a more rapid clip. Chief Executive John Chidsey told Reuters the drive would eventually help the company rake in half its revenue from non-U.S. markets in four to five years, as the burger chain returns to key markets such as Japan that it had pulled out of in the 1990s where the wire service notes it was "pummeled by heated competition."

That little "pummeled by heated competition" notation may come back to haunt the company.

Everywhere Burger King goes, it will find McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). The larger chain has probably been very good and picking the best locations for its stores. That leaves it smaller rival at a disadvantage.

There are also plenty of local chains in China and Japan selling burgers, fast food, and the like. The appetite for Western-style fat foods was established itself in Asia long ago.

Burger King should not count its chickens before they are hatched.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

McDonald's does it again: Sales beat estimates

McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) again has proven that Wall Street's most optimistic forecasts are too conservative.

The number one restaurant chain today reported an 8.2% rise in November sales, a 4.4% gain in U.S. same store sales, a 10.8% increase in Europe and a 12% jump in Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa. Shares of the home of the Quarter Pounder, up about 40% this year, rose to a 52-week high over $61 this morning.

One big reason for the company's success is coffee. The Oakbrook, Illinois-based company's promotion that lets consumers get any sized coffee for 69 cents is brilliant because it hits Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) at its most vulnerable point: price.

Continue reading McDonald's does it again: Sales beat estimates

Will McDonald's' update quench analysts' thirst?

More than three weeks after its earnings release, fast-food giant McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is presenting a financial update to analysts later today. International sales have remained strong for the Dow component and a value menu has kept consumers in McDonald's seats even amid economic tightening. Two of the popular items on the low-price menu are a "snack wrap" for $1.49 and a sundae for $1.00. But commodities prices are on the rise, crimping food producers and restaurateurs.

To keep its growth pace fleet of foot in light of various challenges, McDonald's is taking a liquid focus. In recent years, the company has gained ground on Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), even winning a taste test with its drip coffee last year. Now the behemoth of the Big Mac is exploring the option of moving further into the gourmet-coffee arena, offering beverages such as iced mochas, caramel lattes, and other espresso-based drinks.

Current experimental pricing has these new drinks at $3.00 a pop, which is cheaper than Starbucks but on par with (or slightly higher than) a full-sized burger or sandwich. While consumers are used to emerging from Starbucks five dollars lighter, can they justify spending more on the empty calories of a sweetened coffee drink than the (basically empty, but still protein-filled) calories of a quarter pounder?

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Use the 'secret menu' for better fast food

I used to eat pretty regularly at a Waffle House in Atlanta. I'd usually show up with some friends in the wee hours, looking for a snack before getting some shut-eye. It would usually be pretty slow in the restaurant, so we'd spend some time joking with the regular late-night cook, named Thomas. We'd always say that we would love to eat some pancakes -- and as any Waffle House devotee knows, you can't get pancakes at the big yellow house. Only waffles.

One night, though, Thomas said he had a surprise for us. A few minutes later, a stack of hot, golden pancakes sat before us on the counter. Thomas said that from now on, he would cook us anything we could think of, as long as he had the ingredients, starting with these pancakes, which most certainly were not on the regular menu. Thus began a month-long culinary odyssey through the freezer of our local Waffle House. We started with pancakes and worked our way up to potato hash, sloppy joes, and, finally, butterflied pork chops. It was quite an experience, and ended, sadly, when Thomas was fired. I've never known for sure, but I think it had something to do with our off-menu explorations.

The Christian Science Monitor recently ran an article about the "secret menus" at various fast food restaurants. Apparently, I'm not the only one who has gone off-menu in search of something beyond the usual fare. The article claims that at In-N-Out Burger, the justifiably famous burger chain in southern California, you can order a hamburger "protein style" -- meaning without the bun. Apparently, you can get a McBruschetta at McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), which has toasted tomatoes, onions, and a bun; a Naked Chicken at Popeye's, which has no breading (!); and a Short Cappuccino at Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX), which is served in a kiddie cup.

Continue reading Use the 'secret menu' for better fast food

McDonald's (MCD) trades flat following earnings

Shares of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) are trading flat in today's market after reporting its third quarter numbers this morning. The stock is currently down slightly, falling 0.1% to $56.71, down $0.08.

As we noted in our earnings preview earlier this week, analysts had been expecting to see the company report 81 cents per share during the quarter, and the company actually showed earnings for the quarter to be slightly higher at 83 cents a share.

So why is the stock not moving higher in today's action? Simple... the stock had already been priced to report 83 cents a share after the company set this as its target goal last week.

Overall, it was a great quarter for the fast food giant. Global same store sales rose by a nice 6.9 percent during the quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of increases in same store sales. The U.S. market had its eighteenth straight quarter of same store sale increases.

Continue reading McDonald's (MCD) trades flat following earnings

Chipotle Mexican Grill serving up hot results

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) reported outstanding results again last night, and the fast-food chain rallied big in after-hours trading, up as much as $6. This followed a similar type of moving in the previous day's trading. Here are some of the highlights:
  • Diluted EPS increased 81.8% to $0.60
  • Revenue increased 33.9% to $274.3 million
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased 11.6% -- Wow!
  • Restaurant level operating margins increased 150 basis points to 23.2% -- Massive!
  • Net income increased 85.1% to $20.0 million -- Not too shabby!
Chipotle, which was scooped up by McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) at its earlier stages of development, looks like it's going to be the McDonald's of the future. This is comparable to investing in Ray Kroc when few of his hamburger joints populated the country. Buy Chipotle and go along for the ride.

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 03:26 PM

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