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McDonald's continues its coffee crusade

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has always been known for its famous French fries. Interestingly enough, though, it seems to me that the fast-food chain is becoming known these days for its coffee. I never thought McDonald's would invest as much as it has in coffee, but it looks like it's doing the right thing. According to this Bizjournals piece, McDonald's is putting its weight behind a coffee-bar initiative called McCafe. The program is being tested in various locations now and will be available nationally sometime next year.

I love the timing on this. After all, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) isn't doing so well. Not only is its stock hovering around 52-week-low territory, but the java king recently announced some store closings. That's almost unimaginable. Remember the days when every street corner needed a Starbucks? Yeah, those days are long gone. And I think McDonald's is smart in attempting to expand the brand equity of its coffee-brand portfolio. People need more of a reason to go to the palace of the hamburger-serving clown than just Big Macs these days, since the Big Mac and its various fat-saturated colleagues aren't as popular in these health-conscious times. I'm not saying drinking coffee is an exercise in life preservation, I'm just saying that it's good for McDonald's to focus on less controversial fare.

This significant foray into coffee is arguably a key reason for the company's stellar stock performance over the last few years and its competitive edge against rivals Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN). According to the AOL Finance snapshot, McDonald's is very much in the green for every timeframe save for year-to-date, which sees the stock down less than 1%. That's strength. McDonald's is a little below its 52-week high, and it might make for an interesting investment idea. At the very least, you can look forward to its McCafe program.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Paulson and Bernanke step up to the plate

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they still don't know the score, but they're aware of the need for a financial game plan.

At least the fundamentals are no longer sound. That was my takeaway from the two speeches given by our slow-to-understand government chieftains -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke -- in their back-to-back soothing onslaught.

The short-sellers sure didn't like what they heard. They heard that the government might stand at the ready if things keep rolling over. There was a moment when Hank Paulson praised Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) for the capital it has raised -- about a week's worth of reserves, one quipped -- and there was a sense that the term facility's extension would be the difference-maker for a Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) or a Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take). It sure wasn't a decline in loan losses that had them going.

I come back to the same thing. Unless the government says, "Look, examiners, ignore everything, because we can't have total chaos," and unless the stocks rally so much that they can do meaningful fund raises, Paulson and Bernanke don't have the horses to do the job. Their work yesterday was made easy by an oil future decline that triggered an S&P increase.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Paulson and Bernanke step up to the plate

Google's $1.7 billion YouTube deal going down the tubes?

From the people I talk to who buy online advertising it looks like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s YouTube has been a bust: the video ads are expensive and the results are iffy. Such things are the opposite of what Google is best known for (isn't it about brutally scientific performance?)

Well, in today's Wall Street Journal, there's an excellent piece on the topic. Even though the video site may attract one billion views per day, the monetization has been lackluster -- it looks like annual revenues will be about $200 million or so.

There are a variety of reasons for all this. First of all, major advertisers want to protect their brands from being associated with racy content. Also, Google must deal with a copyright infringement suit from Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and so it is focusing on approved content, which in turn limits the number of advertising opportunities.

In addition, the video revolution is in the early stages. Remember, when internet ads started to emerge during the 1990s, the main buyers were upstart -- not traditional -- companies.

Then, there are also technical and execution problems. Google's ad system is quirky and somewhat of a hodgepodge -- not surprising given Google's quick growth and entrance into many new markets.

Still, despite all the problems, it's critical that Google demonstrates success with YouTube. By and large, the company has had a tough time going beyond its highly successful text-based advertising platform. However, in order to continue the growth, Google needs to show its prowess in other critical areas, such as radio, TV, display ads and ... video.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Before the bell: Futures lower as oil rises, despite Alcoa earnings

U.S. stock futures were lower early Wednesday morning as oil prices rebounded following Iran testing a long-range missile. Oil has dropped over $9 the past two days, allowing the market Tuesday to stage a rally on financials. Today, ahead of the crude inventory report, it seem oil will renew its center stage focus, damping mood despite somewhat encouraging results from aluminum giant Alcoa Tuesday after the close.

On Tuesday, after having a shaky start, U.S. stocks closed with significant gains after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed will try to further help brokerages with emergency funds to tap. This helped financials rally from recent doldrums. Of course, having oil prices easing by the biggest two-day drop in almost four months helped push stocks higher as well. The Dow industrials ended 152 points higher, or 1.36%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 51 points, or 2.28%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.71%.

But oil prices this morning are again moving higher after Iran test-fired nine missiles, renewing fears of a conflict that could cut global oil supplies. Also today, traders are waiting for the weekly report on fuel inventories from the U.S. Department of Energy due at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures lower as oil rises, despite Alcoa earnings

Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript

Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA)
Q2 2008 Earnings Conference Call

Management Summary

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2008 Alcoa earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Greg Aschman, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

Greg Aschman, Director of Investor Relations

Thanks, Kim. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending Alcoa's second quarter 2008 analyst conference. On today's conference Chuck McLane, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will review the second quarter financial results. Klaus Kleinfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer, will highlight current market conditions, industry fundamentals and review Alcoa's strategic priorities. Bill Christopher, Executive Vice President and President of Alcoa's engineered products and solutions business will provide an overview of this business, including performance improvements and growth potential.

Continue reading Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript

Sir John Templeton, best contrarian investor of the 20th Century, dies at 95

One of the greatest investors of the 20th Century, Sir John Templeton, died today in the Bahamas at age 95. If you've invested with a contrarian style or in emerging markets, you probably owe some thanks to what he probably would've called "progress" in those fields.

In the investing world Templeton was known for the work he did on the Templeton Growth Fund, where he was one of the few investors to beat the S&P over the long haul. "If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd," he once said.

Templeton did that by exploring the then-completely exotic world of emerging markets. "The other boys at Yale came from wealthy families, and none of them were investing outside the United States, and I thought, 'That is very egotistical. Why be so shortsighted or near-sighted as to focus only on America? Shouldn't you be more open-minded?'"

He also looked for beaten down and neglected companies. He famously bought $100 worth of 104 companies trading at less than $1 in 1937 and quadrupled his money in four years.

In the rest of the world he was known for financing research into what he called spiritual "progress." He felt spirituality and religion were neglected. To change that, he started offering the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion in 1972, which always makes sure it gives out more money than the Nobel Committee.

Continue reading Sir John Templeton, best contrarian investor of the 20th Century, dies at 95

Anheuser-Busch (BUD) sues InBev, what's next?

It seems that not a day goes by without some news regarding one of the largest deals Wall Street is following intently these days, InBev's $46 billion hostile takeover bid for Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc. (NYSE: BUD).

Not long ago, Reuters reported that Anheuser-Busch filed a suit Monday against InBev NV, calling the brewer's takeover attempt an "illegal plan and scheme" to acquire Anheuser "at a bargain price."

It isn't surprising the Budweiser maker has filed a suit. Only last week, when A-B officially rejected InBev's $46 billion offer, the latter filed a suit of its own as well as launched a proxy battle, filing a consent solicitation with regulators seeking to replace Anheuser's board. Anheuser's suit seeks an injunction to stop InBev's attempts to replace its board. Anheuser says it wants first to make sure certain alleged false and misleading statements are fixed.

From the lawsuit (pdf file) it seems that some of the misleading statements Anheuser is complaining about have to do with InBev's financing possibilities and its plans for the company once it is taken over. I don't normally read litigation documents, but the language here seems quite strong with allegations even of rumor mongering. Judge for yourself:

Continue reading Anheuser-Busch (BUD) sues InBev, what's next?

Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession

An article over at MSNBC.com talks about Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and its potential to thrive during the economic downturn. It got me thinking that maybe I should dump some of my underperforming financial stocks and invest in the controversial retailer.

Indeed, the article's thesis is almost undeniable. Whether you like Wal-Mart or not, it has an ironclad reputation for having low prices. Does it actually have the lowest prices around all the time? That I couldn't tell you. But a lot of items are pretty reasonably priced in any given store, and more importantly, people at least perceive that they are getting great deals when they shop there. In fact, in the latest Wal-Mart Weekly, Brian White analyzes the impact of Wal-Mart's initiative to purchase locally-grown produce to reduce the cost of doing business. This is a competitive move designed to help the company and its shoppers weather the financial storms pounding the markets and wreaking havoc on consumer-confidence levels. Wal-Mart is all about keeping things cheap, and this is going to resonate with the consumer so long as the bear market remains and the negative-wealth effect casts a pall over the nation.

Okay, that's the thesis in a nutshell. But what about the stock? How has it been performing? If you take a look at the AOL Finance snapshot for Wal-Mart, you'll see that the stock has performed rather well for most timeframes. It's dipped 3% in the last month, but it's only a few bucks away from its 52-week high (unlike my financial stocks, which seem to be making new 52-week-lows a daily habit!). That shows strength in my opinion. Compare Wal-Mart to competitors Target (NYSE: TGT) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and you'll see that the stock is doing reasonably well.

Continue reading Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession

IndyMac (IMB) turns to stone

No more home mortgages for the time being. The former number two originator of home mortgages in the United States, IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB), is shutting down its operations and laying off 3800 workers, more than half of its employees.

By halting its prime business, IMB might as well have announced they have turned to stone, as it seems its financial situation is frozen for now. Last quarter it announced continued losses and changed its outlook from being profitable in the fourth quarter to seeing nothing but losses through 2008.

It is always difficult to discuss one's failings, but nothing has been worse than my suggestion that IndyMac might be a screaming buy last year. The stock is down 97%. The sad truth is it was a screaming sell and my worst call since I have been writing for BloggingStocks.com. That will be a separate story.

Today, IndyMac is trading down 47% to $0.37. It will have to restructure once again and will be submitting a survival plan to the FDIC. The current market cap is about $37 million, while its losses over the last twelve months exceed $600 million.

Continue reading IndyMac (IMB) turns to stone

The Fed is sending a signal: More trouble ahead

Macroeconomics, many economists agree, is as much an art as a science. And sometimes it requires the 'reading between the lines' skills of a Kremlinologist during the Cold War.

Here's my reading between the lines analysis of recent Fed statements on housing: more housing-related write-offs (and pain) for certain banks and others with mortgage-backed debt.

Yellen, Bernanke speeches: Signals?


The evidence: first, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen, currently a non-voting member on the Fed's Open Market Committee, delivers a low-key, candid-but-not-alarmist speech Monday to the San Diego Economics Roundtable in which she warns that "things could get worse before they get better" and that problems affecting the financial system could stick around "for some time."

Economist David Wang said Yellen's speech could be interpreted "as her staking out a claim on the dovish [interest rate cut] end of the Fed" were it not for the fact that the measured, always dispassionate Yellen "is not known for politicking or embellished commentary."

Continue reading The Fed is sending a signal: More trouble ahead

Will InBev have to say 'adios' to Cuba to buy Anheuser-Busch?

According to The New York Times' DealBook blog, InBev has a significant partnership with Cuba to produce Bucanero beer, the second-largest player in the communist country's market.

In the the beer world, this deal is not very important since the island has a population of about 11 million. Besides, its economy is a mess.

"Government defaulted on most of its international debt in 1986 and does not have access to credit from international financial institutions like the World Bank, which means Havana must rely heavily on short-term loans to finance imports, chiefly food and fuel," according to Global Security Org. "Because of its poor credit rating, an $11 billion hard currency debt, and the risks associated with Cuban investment, interest rates have reportedly been as high as 22%."

The question of what would happen to InBev's Cuban business in the event the takeover of Budweiser is successful is an interesting one. Would the company have to divest the business to comply with the U.S. embargo or not do anything since it is not a U.S.-based company? Maybe the subsidiary could be operated through a non-U.S. InBev business. Regardless, it's a solvable problem from a legal and financial vantage point.

While I have no doubt I have no doubt the Belgian brewer will gladly say "adios" to its small Cuban beer business if that's the price it has to pay to complete its $46 billion hostile bid for Anheuser-Busch Cos., Inc. (NYSE: BUD), public relations is another matter.

Continue reading Will InBev have to say 'adios' to Cuba to buy Anheuser-Busch?

In Europe, Fannie, Freddie status spark concern of recession

"It's like that wave approaching the shoreline that you see in the distance and don't think is big, and then it's 100 feet in front of you and you realize it is."

That's how London-based economist Mark Chandler described Europe's perspective on the potential 'latest wave' of the housing crisis -- the research report by Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) may have to raise up to $46 billion and $29 billion in additional capital, Bloomberg News reported.

Europe is concerned that the pair's announcement "signals another round of write-downs here in England and Europe as well as in America" Chandler told BloggingStocks Tuesday, with negative consequences for the stock market, and, equally significant, for business and consumer confidence, he said.

Europe's major stock markets decline

Indeed, Europe's major stock markets did not react favorably Tuesday to the Lehman report. London's FTSE fell 66.70 points to 5446.00, Germany's DAX declined 104.49.35 to 6,291.71, and France's CAC 40 fell 78.22 to 4,263.37 in Tuesday afternoon trading.

Continue reading In Europe, Fannie, Freddie status spark concern of recession

General Electric (GE): Blue chip bargain

"They don't get much more blue-chip than General Electric (NYSE: GE)," says Nilus Mattive. I his top-notch Dividend Superstars, he takes a look at the industrial gain which offers an indicated yield of 4.4%.

"GE is the only company that has remained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from day one, the company was founded in 1890 by none other than Thomas Alva Edison to market his various inventions.

"GE's broad diversification is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it affords the firm plenty of protection from a major decline in any one business.

"On the other, it has led to a very complicated enterprise with inherently limited growth prospects. Yet despite the company's size, it has still managed to increase its revenues internally by about 9% a year.

Continue reading General Electric (GE): Blue chip bargain

Cramer on BloggingStocks: An elegy for Fannie and Freddie

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the GSEs as we know them have to die before we can move forward.

At last, we have now found our own Resolution Trust Corporation for this era of overbuilding. In fact, we have two of them: Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). That's right, we know they are both out of capital, and unlike the ne'er-do-well banks -- almost all of which seem now slated to disappear in one giant bear-market orgy -- there are no saviors.

The dissolution of these two companies is the height of irony. President Bush made it his sub rosa mission to end the hegemony of these two Democrats-in-waiting companies. I don't even think he understood what the guarantee was or what they were supposed to do. That would take a lot of time to figure out. He probably just said, "We have banks, good banks, like Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and Countrywide; why do we need Fannie Mae, which just makes money for the Democrats?"

So, over a multiyear scheme, he hamstrung the agencies and let the private banks take over lending and securitizing pretty much anything, because homeownership was another one of his themes, of course, aided by the Fed's insistence that exotic mortgages, especially weird adjustable types, made the most sense.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: An elegy for Fannie and Freddie

The euro-vasion

With the markets in a swoon, marquee assets are on sale in the US. And, with the drop in the dollar, the valuations look even more compelling. Something else: the surge in commodities -- especially in oil -- is bulging the assets in mega sovereign wealth funds.

In fact, even US icons are under attack, such as Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD), which is fending off a hostile takeover from Belgium's InBev.

True, there is some good news. For example, our domestic companies will have an edge with exports (it seems that this has saved us from a recession -- at least so far). But, alas, it is little consolation.

Perhaps the most effective way to boost the value of the dollar is to increase interest rates. However, this will be a tough thing to do -- in light of the upcoming election, the housing sump and continued economic weakness.

In other words, US assets should remain cheap. And, foreign buyers can't ignore this. So, it's a good bet that we'll see more and more dealmaking from overseas.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

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DJIA-1.8711,382.34
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S&P 500+1.561,275.26

Last updated: July 09, 2008: 11:14 AM

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