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Fed's Beige Book Shows Moderate Growth, Market Doesn't React

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book reading on the current state of American economic conditions. The good news is that the survey reported modest economic growth across the Fed's 12 regional districts. The bad news is that the Beige Book found no signs of an increase in hiring. The Beige Book found "Many firms reluctant to add to permanent payrolls given economic softness."

Why is the Beige Book important? Many experts feel that this report gives the Fed a better read on the current economic conditions, which could give some hint as to what action the Central Bank will take when it meets next in early November. Judging by the tepid reaction on the Street, this report lent little credence to any belief that the Fed will take any noticeable action.

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Ben Bernanke: Weak Regulation Caused Economic Crisis

Big Ben Bernanke is letting his opinions be known early in 2010, and he is pointing the finger of blame for the economic crisis right at weak regulation. Bernanke is waiting for confirmation of his second term as Fed chair and he is looking for greater regulatory authority from Congress.

Bernanke told the American Economic Association that "Stronger regulation and supervision aimed at problems with underwriting practices and lenders' risk management would have been a more effective and surgical approach to constraining the housing bubble than a general increase in interest rates." This statement was part of Bernanke's response to accusations that the Fed was a major contributor to the financial crisis. The Fed head believes that the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve from 2002 to 2006 were appropriate.

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The Federal Reserve's upcoming plans

The Federal Reserve and its key players, including Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke, have almost taken on rock star status. With the new media and cable television networks like CNBC, every move that Sir Chairman makes or every word he utters is now headlines. Use to be the Fed Chairman could deliver 50 speeches around the nation and nary make a headline. Now, CNBC has a senior reporter covering every speech and trying to parse the Fed Chairman's every word. It's a great job if you enjoy Fed nuance.

The role of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of the Treasury, led by former Goldman banker Hank Paulson, will be front and center these coming months. 2008 is an election year and the news on the housing front is not improving. Not too mention the millions of mortgages that are resetting to higher monthly payments throughout the course of 2008. The Federal Reserve will likely drop the key interest rate here in December and again in the first quarter. With the key Fed Funds rate at 4.5%, the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury Note yielding 3.95% is already signaling a minimum cut of 25 basis points, but more than likely 50 basis points. The housing market would welcome a 50-basis point drop; it would make a nice Christmas present.

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Wal-Mart's banking plans popular in Mexico

When Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) wanted to enter the banking business in the U.S. -- even indirectly-- consumer groups and watchdogs came out to protest the nation's largest retailer from offering banking services inside its stores.

Wal-Mart's real plan from the start was to own its own commercial banking branch to reduce or eliminate its reliance on outside financial processing institutions. But, who knows if the retailer *wanted* to enter the direct, retail banking business. My guess is yes -- just not now.

The reaction in Mexico to Wal-Mart's banking services plan has been just the opposite. Wal-Mart is also the largest retailer in Mexico (and the world) and it wants to reach out to working-class Mexican citizens that larger, global banks like HSBC and Citigroup have avoided like the plague -- and the Mexican government is cheering them on. These folks may not have large sums of investable and backable legal tenders,but they have cash and there's always a need to "take that to the bank."

Former fed chairman Alan Greenspan went as far as publicly worrying about regulators' lack of oversight Wal-Mart. In fact, many legislators in the U.S. congress echoed Greenspan's concerns when Wal-Mart announced that it would want to own is own commercial banking institution. Is there is lesson for fearful U.S. regulators to latch onto here? What are your thoughts?

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 08:22 PM

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