Many observers refer to the market as a forecasting mechanism. If so, today's 213 point rise could be a signal that investors anticipate an Obama win. I don't think today's reported 3.3% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter can explain the rise. Rather I think the market could be happy with the idea of taking a break from the failed tax cut and spend policies of the last eight years -- which have led to a record $490 billion federal deficit, a $9.8 trillion national debt, and the loss of $8 trillion in housing-related value.
Bloomberg News reports that GDP grew 3.3% thanks to a rise in exports to Europe -- still GDP growth was anticipated to hit 2.7% so today's figure -- which could be revised after the November election -- looked more favorable. Nevertheless, Bloomberg does not expect the so-called expansion to continue since the European economy is weakening and consumers burdened with falling home values -- the average home is down 16% -- and a tough job market -- will lead cut back their spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP growth. Bloomberg writes that "the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits reached a five-year high last week."
Republican presidential nominee-in-waiting, John McCain is going to be all smiles as we approach the November election. If you are a conspiracy theorist, or just find it a curious irony as I do, you must be noting that, just this week, the Federal Reserve decided to leave the Fed loan rate at 2%, the Iraq and U.S. governments are negotiating a withdrawal timetable for our troops, and oil prices are falling fast.
All of these headline-worthy items will benefit the Republicans more than the Democrats. Furthermore, all of these improvements will help the folks on Wall Street and Main Street. The stock market is way up today, they say on dropping oil prices: Stocks jump as oil prices fall sharply.
This has the taint of political engineering or "electioneering," even if it is just coincidence. Maybe the world is just happy to see Dubya go into retirement ... who knows?
Earlier I posted Obama's $1000 giveaway is a take away! and now it's time to rant about Dear John. He is on record as claiming he can balance the federal budget by the end of his first term without raising taxes. I think we have heard that before. It's not going to happen. Why do politicians insist on uttering such nonsense?
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed economic stimulus package has bi-partisan support and calls for an estimated $156 billion of tax rebates ranging from $500 to $1,000 (+ $300 for each child) that might show up in May.
If we are going to add on to our already humungous joke of national debt, than I want to invest this capital in something that will bring a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) than the paltry one time mad money. That expenditure should be for national infrastructure projects like roadways, bridges, tunnels, and waterways.
We have all heard about the poor condition of our national infrastructure and the hundreds of billions of dollars of repair work and replacement that is desperately needed.
This alternative would bring visible results that every single person in the country would benefit from and improved linkages always stimulate economic growth. Road improvements even reduce fuel consumption by shortening routes and reducing friction both strategically and physically.