Banks are the kink between the financial markets and the Main Street economy. They are also the lubricant -- when they are lending -- of a growing economy.

Using time-honored but now discarded accounting standards, U.S. banks, as a group, are insolvent. They are hoarding cash because deep in the recesses of little offices, they know they will be exposed as insolvent if they have to dump toxic assets on the market. They are also looking at reduced activity due to the economy and new taxes and regulations, and therefore lower profits. And when the Fed raises interest rates, their spreads will contract, also hitting profits.

Continue reading Reason #4 to Short the U.S.: The Banks

Reason #4 to Short the U.S.: The Banks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 31 Jan 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.

Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.

Continue reading Five Reasons to Short the U.S.

Five Reasons to Short the U.S. originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 30 Jan 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"When I evaluate the underlying fundamentals in the financial sector, I find myself ready to back up the truck," notes Louis Basenese, editor with The Oxford Club. Here he looks at a financial ETF.

"Recently GE shocked the world when it missed earnings expectations by seven cents because of difficulties in its financial services business, the seventh largest in the United States. Then Wachovia posted a worse-than expected $1.1 billion loss.

"Next was Washington Mutual which reported a $1.14 billion quarterly loss, worse than expected. And Merrill Lynch had a quarterly loss of $1.96 billion, also worse than expectations.

"Not to be outdone, the bottom of the line-up, regional banks (Comerica Inc., KeyCorp and PNC Financial Services Group) also struck out, reporting worse than expected first-quarter net income and/or mounting credit-loss provisions and net charge-offs.

"Remarkably, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (ASE: XLF) has barely budged. Indeed, its 15% higher than where it was when Bear Stearns collapsed.

Continue reading 'Back up the truck' for financials?

'Back up the truck' for financials? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MarketWatch has an interesting article today about homebuilder and financial ETFs. The article, titled "Analysts say financial, builder ETFs signaling buy," interviews a couple of leading analysts who feel that both sectors have bottomed out and are "screaming buys."

Morningstar analyst Sonya Morris said that the Financial Select Sector SPDR (AMEX: XLF) is trading "at least 25% below what Morningstar thinks they are worth."

MarketWatch said in the same article, "Most of the analysts agree that valuations are attractive right now in the financial sector. They said that once the sector gets past the problems with the subprime crisis, probably by the end of this year, the shares could move fast."

I think these analysts are probably right, but that we're probably not through going down in the short term.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

Analysts warming up to financial ETFs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.