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JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast

Tuesday morning greeted us with earnings from banking behemoth JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). The company said it earned $3.59 billion and that it nearly doubled the amount of money it saved for loan losses in the third quarter.

Breaking the results down into per-share earnings, JPM trounced the consensus estimate. The bank earned 82 cents per share, nearly double the expected 49 cents per share. Quarterly revenue increased to $26.62 billion from last year's same-quarter revenue of $14.74 billion.

Continue reading JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast

Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

"Banks had taken a brutal beating over the last two years was brutal; the S&P Sector SPDR Financials dropped 72.0% from its high last September to its low in March," notes Brandon Clay.

In his Invest with an Edge, he explains, "One bank in particular is exerting itself again as a dominant player: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)." Here's his review.

"The painful declines in bank stocks appear to have stopped for now, as bank stocks have exploded off the March lows. As we've observed, financials have 'friends in high places.'

"Banks in general are showing promise as credit becomes easier. There's still a long way to go for complete recovery, but the trend is pointing up.

Continue reading Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon will continue to endure

Just call it an extended buying opportunity for one of the most trusted banks in the United States. I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), first recommended on April 6, 2009 at a price of $28.16.

Founded by Alexander Hamilton, perhaps my favorite U.S. Constitution Framer, The Bank of New York provides services that enable institutions and individuals to move and manage their financial assets in more than 100 markets globally. The core of BK's business, custodial services, is doing just fine, with $16 trillion in assets under custody. The First Call FY2009/FY010 EPS estimates for BK are $2.06 to $2.51.

Continue reading Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon will continue to endure

Good news from Goldman (GS)

"Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) surprised investors with better-than-expected earnings while also raising equity to help replay $10 billion in TARP money," says Bill Martin In BullMarket.com.

"On the earnings front, Goldman swung back to solid profitability after turning in its first-ever quarterly loss at the end of its last fiscal year, which ended November 28th, 2008.

"Goldman earned a net profit of $1.66 billion, or $3.39 a share, compared to a Q1 2008 profit of $1.47 billion, or $3.23 a share. The results are a vast improvement over the loss of -$2.29 billion, or -$4.97 a share, reported for Q4 2008.

"Goldman Sachs has long been the best run of what were previously Wall Street's top investment banks and the strength of its trading operations were evident in the quarter.

Continue reading Good news from Goldman (GS)

Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

You've asked people to give you ideas, so here's one: Don't recycle Bush's failed ideas and expect them to work. Each of those failed ideas has deep flaws. Instead, if you have to save the banking system -- and I would like to see how things would work if companies and people lived within their means rather than borrowing to pay for things that they can't afford -- then cull and capitalize or create new banks.

Here's what's wrong with the three recycled Bush ideas being floated:

Continue reading Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

15 favorite ETFs for 2009

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

JPMorgan up on earnings report

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) posted earnings Thursday. In a surprise to analysts, who had been expecting a break-even quarter, JPM reported earning 7 cents for the fourth quarter.

While the report showed a 76% decline from the previous year, the news pushed the stock to early gains in the face of a drop in the Dow.

Typical of the lack of conviction in the markets, JPM gave up early gains. Subsequent trading restored the stock to the positive column before it succumbed to a late-day sell-off that shaved more than 6% from its market value.

The mid-morning decline in JPM occurred as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) plummeted to a new low at $7.50. BAC is sagging under the weight of absorbing Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, both of which have proven more difficult to digest than earlier thought.

Bank stocks in general are under heavy selling pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared Wednesday that billions more will be required to restore stability to the nation's (and the world's) banking system.

Continue reading JPMorgan up on earnings report

Bank of America posts $4 billion profit, gets $120 billion from taxpayers

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) posted 2008 net income of $4 billion, down from $15 billion in 2007. Its fourth quarter revenue was up 19% to $15.98 billion from $13.45 billion in 2007. But last fall Bank of America agreed to acquire Merrill Lynch -- which had a fourth-quarter net loss of $15.31 billion. And as an apparent condition of closing the Merrill deal, Bank of America has demanded and received about $120 billion from the government ($20 billion + the part of the $118 billion absorbed by the government).

The terms of Bank of America's deal mean the government will inject an additional $20 billion into Bank of America -- raising its holdings to $45 billion and making its 6% stake the single largest one. The government will also guarantee part of a pool of $118 billion in illiquid assets, including residential and commercial real estate and corporate loans. Bank of America will be responsible for the first $10 billion in losses; the Treasury and the FDIC will take on the next $10 billion in losses. The Fed will absorb 90% of any additional losses, with Bank of America responsible for the rest.

Continue reading Bank of America posts $4 billion profit, gets $120 billion from taxpayers

Only a crazy person would invest in Citi

Yesterday, someone said to me, "Wow, look at Citi! Is it time to buy?"

I believe the same question was asked about the last big buggy whip manufacturer. And Citigroup (NYSE: C) is in much worse shape than the last of the buggy whip manufacturers.

But the Fed and the Treasury just bailed them out in November, right?

Yup, but all they did was to provide a bucket to bail out a sinking ship -- the leaks and holes are still there.

Hole No. 1: Besides the dodgy assets on its balance sheet, Citigroup has $1.2 trillion in off-balance sheet assets that may or may not be dodgy.

In a company town hall meeting in November, Citi tried to reassure everyone by telling them not to worry about more than $800 billion of these assets because "per accounting rule changes" they will likely not exist in the future.

Makes me feel good. How 'bout you?

To me this says it will need to raise more capital.

Continue reading Only a crazy person would invest in Citi

2008 Trades Gone Bad #4: Betting on the financials

Buying the financials while the Fed was aggressively cutting interest rates was supposed to be a no-brainer.

Banks, brokerages, insurance companies and other financial-related businesses rally in tandem to lower rates, which translates into cheap money for lending and investing.

A million and one professionals bought into this theme, and made the mistake of thinking the worst-case scenario for the credit markets was baked in back in June.

By mid-July, the bloodletting in the financial sector revealed giant writedowns being charged against earnings for huge exposure to subprime debt at the biggest banks and Wall Street firms. The rest is history, which is still being written to date.

Shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C) crashed from $25 to $3, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) plunged from $180 to $47, and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) fell from $40 to $10. You get the picture.

Continue reading 2008 Trades Gone Bad #4: Betting on the financials

Hartford up over 100% on outlook

Positive thinking can be very powerful with respect to companies operating in this environment. Many stocks are priced for the worst possible outcome, thus any sort of positive news will be received with enormous relief.

That relief can translate into huge gains for investors.

In the positive spotlight Friday, insurance company giant Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG) has been in the cross hairs of short sellers since the AIG (NYSE: AIG) debacle, falling from a 52-week high of nearly $100 to a low of $4.

Given huge losses in the stock market and with questions about its balance sheet, investors priced HIG for failure.

Not so fast. The company stated Friday that all was not as bad as it appeared as it raised its 2008 forecast and said that it had enough capital to withstand further deterioration in the equity market.

That last tidbit was the best news of all, especially for beaten down common shareholders. Shares of HIG are trading for more than a 100% gain today as a result. That's right, shares doubled in value in one day.

Is this move sustainable? I think the answer is "yes."

Even AIG, with all of its capital problems, ends with shareholders being diluted by 80%. It may even be something far less. If AIG can sell businesses and pay off government loans, shareholders may end up doing much better than expected.

The same is true with HIG, and it is far from the government trough.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

US Bancorp (USB): Bank with Buffett

Jack Adamo has been a bull on U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) and is now recommending doubling the position that he holds in his model portfolio. Here's the latest from his Insiders Plus newsletter.

"US Bancorp is accepting $6.6 billion in new capital from the TARP program. Tier One capital will rise from 8.5% to 11.4% as a result of the new deal.

"The company will issue preferred stock to the U.S. Treasury at an annual rate of 5% for five years, increasing to 9% per year thereafter if the company has not redeemed the shares. I doubt they'll go unredeemed.

"The Treasury Department would also receive 10-year warrants entitling it to buy common stock of U.S. Bancorp with a value equal to 15% of the amount of the preferred stock issuance.

"With Tier One capital already at 8.5%, USB obviously didn't need the Fed infusion. It said it saw it as a good opportunity to get cheap capital with which to take advantage of any acquisition opportunities. I agree with that.

"Those terms are very good. Compare them to the arm-twisting terms some companies have paid, e.g., the 10%, plus warrants, that Buffett charged GE. Incidentally, Buffett added 3 million shares of USB to his holding in Q3.

"I said about 18 months ago, before the market carnage started, that U.S. Bancorp was the single stock that I felt most comfortable with. That hasn't changed.

"With a dividend of 6.5%, a great balance sheet, and opportunities to take business from weaker banks in the years ahead, this is a truly safe place to put money for solid total returns for years to come."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Hedge fund maestro William Ackman: Short-sale rule was a disaster

Short selling sounds un-American -- hey, it's about making money when securities fall. Yet, it has been a part of markets for centuries.

But when markets undergo periods of extreme stress, then people look for villains. Of course, short selling is an easy target.

It should not be surprising then that the Securities and Exchange Commission recently banned short selling for hundreds of financial stocks. Somehow, the hope was that it would stem the market slide.

Well, the markets have continued to crash.

Interestingly enough, one of the top investors in the world -- Pershing Square's William Ackman, speaking at Value Investing Congress in New York – thinks that the ban was one of the main factors for the loss of investor confidence.

Keep in mind that hedge funds have become a dominant player in the financial markets. They have come to rely on short selling and without the ability to make such trades, hedge funds got squeezed. As a result, there was a massive unwinding of positions.

Although, there is a silver lining. The plunge has resulted in a disconnection between fundamentals and pricing. In other words, there appear to be some compelling opportunities in the markets.

In fact, it looks like Ackman is already capitalizing on his savvy purchase of 180 million shares of Wachovia (NYSE: WB) when it got an offer from Citigroup (NYSE: C) last week. It was one of his first longs on financials in the past five years.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website

SEC should ban hedge funds from pulling out their money, then shorting

It looks like SEC Chairman Chris Cox still has his job -- this despite John McCain's call to fire Cox. And what has Cox done for us lately? He's banned short selling on 799 financial stocks for the next 10 days, according to the Wall Street Journal [subscription required]. The SEC's temporary ban on short selling won't help deal with the underlying problems causing this 100 Year Crash -- but it won't make them any worse.

Short selling is one way to bet against the decline in a stock's share price. A short seller borrows shares from a broker and sells them at that market price. SEC rules give the short seller three days to obtain custody of those shares. The short seller profits by buying back the shares at a lower market price to repay that stock loan. So-called "naked shorting" -- when the short seller never obtains custody of the shares -- is considered abusive. By banning short selling, the SEC is trying to interrupt a negative feedback loop about which I posted yesterday.

This loop helped shorts profit from a decline in investment bank shares. How so? All the bad news has been driving down their shares so much that ratings agencies downgraded the investment banks' debt. Since that debt was insured through the $62 trillion Credit Default Swap (CDS) market, the downgrade threat boosted CDS premiums requiring the investment bank to post collateral in the billions. This put even more pressure on the investment bank to raise capital, driving down its shares even more.

Continue reading SEC should ban hedge funds from pulling out their money, then shorting

Wall Street's bulls, bears and pigs

"Bulls make money; bears make money; in the end, pigs shoot themselves through greed," says Charles Payne in WStreet Commentaries. Here's his cautiously optimistic outlook.

"Let's get this straight; the Fed is willing to take damn near any form of collateral including those prints of Van Gogh's 'Sunflowers'" in the employee dining room, right? So, how much more do financial companies want...or need? They'd love a blank check but that isn't going to happen.

"The total amount available under the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) could increase from $200 billion and there could be an interest rate cut. But, for the most part Wall Street has to fend for itself.

"In the 1969 film They Shoot Horses, Don't They? we witness a Depression-era dance marathon for a grand prize of $1,500 (that's not much money now).

"The emcee of the events eggs on the contestants, already desperate to win at any cost. Throughout the film the main character is reminded of a time during his childhood when a horse was put down after breaking its leg.

"Many would say that Wall Street was egged on by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve or an administration reluctant to regulate the industry.

"As a result, the financials have been in a marathon dance for survival this year, but just like that horse at some point putting down for the count those with the largest fractures may be most humane.

Continue reading Wall Street's bulls, bears and pigs

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 08:12 AM

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