Continue reading JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast

JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Oct 2009 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his Invest with an Edge, he explains, "One bank in particular is exerting itself again as a dominant player: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)." Here's his review.

"The painful declines in bank stocks appear to have stopped for now, as bank stocks have exploded off the March lows. As we've observed, financials have 'friends in high places.'

"Banks in general are showing promise as credit becomes easier. There's still a long way to go for complete recovery, but the trend is pointing up.

Continue reading Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon will continue to endure

Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon will continue to endure originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Aug 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) surprised investors with better-than-expected earnings while also raising equity to help replay $10 billion in TARP money," says Bill Martin In BullMarket.com.

"On the earnings front, Goldman swung back to solid profitability after turning in its first-ever quarterly loss at the end of its last fiscal year, which ended November 28th, 2008.

"Goldman earned a net profit of $1.66 billion, or $3.39 a share, compared to a Q1 2008 profit of $1.47 billion, or $3.23 a share. The results are a vast improvement over the loss of -$2.29 billion, or -$4.97 a share, reported for Q4 2008.

"Goldman Sachs has long been the best run of what were previously Wall Street's top investment banks and the strength of its trading operations were evident in the quarter.

Continue reading Good news from Goldman (GS)

Good news from Goldman (GS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You've asked people to give you ideas, so here's one: Don't recycle Bush's failed ideas and expect them to work. Each of those failed ideas has deep flaws. Instead, if you have to save the banking system -- and I would like to see how things would work if companies and people lived within their means rather than borrowing to pay for things that they can't afford -- then cull and capitalize or create new banks.

Here's what's wrong with the three recycled Bush ideas being floated:

Continue reading Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

15 favorite ETFs for 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) posted earnings Thursday. In a surprise to analysts, who had been expecting a break-even quarter, JPM reported earning 7 cents for the fourth quarter.

While the report showed a 76% decline from the previous year, the news pushed the stock to early gains in the face of a drop in the Dow.

Typical of the lack of conviction in the markets, JPM gave up early gains. Subsequent trading restored the stock to the positive column before it succumbed to a late-day sell-off that shaved more than 6% from its market value.

The mid-morning decline in JPM occurred as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) plummeted to a new low at $7.50. BAC is sagging under the weight of absorbing Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, both of which have proven more difficult to digest than earlier thought.

Bank stocks in general are under heavy selling pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared Wednesday that billions more will be required to restore stability to the nation's (and the world's) banking system.

Continue reading JPMorgan up on earnings report

JPMorgan up on earnings report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) posted 2008 net income of $4 billion, down from $15 billion in 2007. Its fourth quarter revenue was up 19% to $15.98 billion from $13.45 billion in 2007. But last fall Bank of America agreed to acquire Merrill Lynch -- which had a fourth-quarter net loss of $15.31 billion. And as an apparent condition of closing the Merrill deal, Bank of America has demanded and received about $120 billion from the government ($20 billion + the part of the $118 billion absorbed by the government).

The terms of Bank of America's deal mean the government will inject an additional $20 billion into Bank of America -- raising its holdings to $45 billion and making its 6% stake the single largest one. The government will also guarantee part of a pool of $118 billion in illiquid assets, including residential and commercial real estate and corporate loans. Bank of America will be responsible for the first $10 billion in losses; the Treasury and the FDIC will take on the next $10 billion in losses. The Fed will absorb 90% of any additional losses, with Bank of America responsible for the rest.

Continue reading Bank of America posts $4 billion profit, gets $120 billion from taxpayers

Bank of America posts $4 billion profit, gets $120 billion from taxpayers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday, someone said to me, "Wow, look at Citi! Is it time to buy?"

I believe the same question was asked about the last big buggy whip manufacturer. And Citigroup (NYSE: C) is in much worse shape than the last of the buggy whip manufacturers.

But the Fed and the Treasury just bailed them out in November, right?

Yup, but all they did was to provide a bucket to bail out a sinking ship -- the leaks and holes are still there.

Hole No. 1: Besides the dodgy assets on its balance sheet, Citigroup has $1.2 trillion in off-balance sheet assets that may or may not be dodgy.

In a company town hall meeting in November, Citi tried to reassure everyone by telling them not to worry about more than $800 billion of these assets because "per accounting rule changes" they will likely not exist in the future.

Makes me feel good. How 'bout you?

To me this says it will need to raise more capital.

Continue reading Only a crazy person would invest in Citi

Only a crazy person would invest in Citi originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jan 2009 18:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Buying the financials while the Fed was aggressively cutting interest rates was supposed to be a no-brainer.

Banks, brokerages, insurance companies and other financial-related businesses rally in tandem to lower rates, which translates into cheap money for lending and investing.

A million and one professionals bought into this theme, and made the mistake of thinking the worst-case scenario for the credit markets was baked in back in June.

By mid-July, the bloodletting in the financial sector revealed giant writedowns being charged against earnings for huge exposure to subprime debt at the biggest banks and Wall Street firms. The rest is history, which is still being written to date.

Shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C) crashed from $25 to $3, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) plunged from $180 to $47, and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) fell from $40 to $10. You get the picture.

Continue reading 2008 Trades Gone Bad #4: Betting on the financials

2008 Trades Gone Bad #4: Betting on the financials originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Positive thinking can be very powerful with respect to companies operating in this environment. Many stocks are priced for the worst possible outcome, thus any sort of positive news will be received with enormous relief.

That relief can translate into huge gains for investors.

In the positive spotlight Friday, insurance company giant Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG) has been in the cross hairs of short sellers since the AIG (NYSE: AIG) debacle, falling from a 52-week high of nearly $100 to a low of $4.

Given huge losses in the stock market and with questions about its balance sheet, investors priced HIG for failure.

Not so fast. The company stated Friday that all was not as bad as it appeared as it raised its 2008 forecast and said that it had enough capital to withstand further deterioration in the equity market.

That last tidbit was the best news of all, especially for beaten down common shareholders. Shares of HIG are trading for more than a 100% gain today as a result. That's right, shares doubled in value in one day.

Is this move sustainable? I think the answer is "yes."

Even AIG, with all of its capital problems, ends with shareholders being diluted by 80%. It may even be something far less. If AIG can sell businesses and pay off government loans, shareholders may end up doing much better than expected.

The same is true with HIG, and it is far from the government trough.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

Hartford up over 100% on outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Jack Adamo has been a bull on U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) and is now recommending doubling the position that he holds in his model portfolio. Here's the latest from his Insiders Plus newsletter.

"US Bancorp is accepting $6.6 billion in new capital from the TARP program. Tier One capital will rise from 8.5% to 11.4% as a result of the new deal.

"The company will issue preferred stock to the U.S. Treasury at an annual rate of 5% for five years, increasing to 9% per year thereafter if the company has not redeemed the shares. I doubt they'll go unredeemed.

"The Treasury Department would also receive 10-year warrants entitling it to buy common stock of U.S. Bancorp with a value equal to 15% of the amount of the preferred stock issuance.

"With Tier One capital already at 8.5%, USB obviously didn't need the Fed infusion. It said it saw it as a good opportunity to get cheap capital with which to take advantage of any acquisition opportunities. I agree with that.

"Those terms are very good. Compare them to the arm-twisting terms some companies have paid, e.g., the 10%, plus warrants, that Buffett charged GE. Incidentally, Buffett added 3 million shares of USB to his holding in Q3.

"I said about 18 months ago, before the market carnage started, that U.S. Bancorp was the single stock that I felt most comfortable with. That hasn't changed.

"With a dividend of 6.5%, a great balance sheet, and opportunities to take business from weaker banks in the years ahead, this is a truly safe place to put money for solid total returns for years to come."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

US Bancorp (USB): Bank with Buffett originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He is also the founder of BizEquity

Hedge fund maestro William Ackman: Short-sale rule was a disaster originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Oct 2008 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It looks like SEC Chairman Chris Cox still has his job -- this despite John McCain's call to fire Cox. And what has Cox done for us lately? He's banned short selling on 799 financial stocks for the next 10 days, according to the Wall Street Journal [subscription required]. The SEC's temporary ban on short selling won't help deal with the underlying problems causing this 100 Year Crash -- but it won't make them any worse.

Short selling is one way to bet against the decline in a stock's share price. A short seller borrows shares from a broker and sells them at that market price. SEC rules give the short seller three days to obtain custody of those shares. The short seller profits by buying back the shares at a lower market price to repay that stock loan. So-called "naked shorting" -- when the short seller never obtains custody of the shares -- is considered abusive. By banning short selling, the SEC is trying to interrupt a negative feedback loop about which I posted yesterday.

This loop helped shorts profit from a decline in investment bank shares. How so? All the bad news has been driving down their shares so much that ratings agencies downgraded the investment banks' debt. Since that debt was insured through the $62 trillion Credit Default Swap (CDS) market, the downgrade threat boosted CDS premiums requiring the investment bank to post collateral in the billions. This put even more pressure on the investment bank to raise capital, driving down its shares even more.

Continue reading SEC should ban hedge funds from pulling out their money, then shorting

SEC should ban hedge funds from pulling out their money, then shorting originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Bulls make money; bears make money; in the end, pigs shoot themselves through greed," says Charles Payne in WStreet Commentaries. Here's his cautiously optimistic outlook.

"Let's get this straight; the Fed is willing to take damn near any form of collateral including those prints of Van Gogh's 'Sunflowers'" in the employee dining room, right? So, how much more do financial companies want...or need? They'd love a blank check but that isn't going to happen.

"The total amount available under the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) could increase from $200 billion and there could be an interest rate cut. But, for the most part Wall Street has to fend for itself.

"In the 1969 film They Shoot Horses, Don't They? we witness a Depression-era dance marathon for a grand prize of $1,500 (that's not much money now).

"The emcee of the events eggs on the contestants, already desperate to win at any cost. Throughout the film the main character is reminded of a time during his childhood when a horse was put down after breaking its leg.

"Many would say that Wall Street was egged on by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve or an administration reluctant to regulate the industry.

"As a result, the financials have been in a marathon dance for survival this year, but just like that horse at some point putting down for the count those with the largest fractures may be most humane.

Continue reading Wall Street's bulls, bears and pigs

Wall Street's bulls, bears and pigs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Twelve banks, lead by JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), will set up a $70 billion loan facility which any of them can draw on in an emergency.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The pool would act as a signal to the marketplace that banks, brokerages, and other financial companies can lean on the fund to take care of borrowing needs."

By some accounts, any one of the members in the pool can take down 33% of the $70 billion. If the financial crisis gets significantly worse, the partners may be battling each other for that money. Competition for the capital could become unpleasant.

One other way to look at the fund is that it is an M&A facility. If any single bank or broker owes the fund $30 billion, it may be a way for a stronger member, say Goldman, to buy that company by taking on its loan obligation.

An acquisition fund disguised as a lender venture. How clever.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Banks may fight over new $70 billion fund originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

AIG may announce turnaround plan early to calm market fears originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We continue to apply our value-oriented principles in selecting new growth stocks as we look for companies with superior profitability and strong balance sheets," says Jim Stack.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he and analyst Bruce Morison explain, "Our latest featured investment, Charles Schwab Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHW), is a prime example and stands out as a conservative way to access to opportunities in the battered financial group."

"We are increasing our equity allocation in stocks that should show strong relative performance in a market upturn.

"We continue, however, to be very selective in terms of quality, as well as downside risk. Over the past 20 years, brokerage/asset management firms have produced more than twice the return of the market following a bear market.

"The Charles Schwab brand is one of the most well-known and trusted names in the financial services industry. Its strategy is to be competitively priced, but more importantly to be positioned as the gold standard in client service and integrity.

Continue reading Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

By Michael Vodicka, Zack's Investment Research.

In spite of the recent selloff in the energy sector, most of these stocks are still trading with big gains on the year. This stands in sharp contrast to stocks from the financial sector, which have suffered steep losses as big banks have been forced to liquidate assets and raise capital to support their balance sheets.

Because these two groups of stocks have functioned as polar opposites during this stretch, it has provoked many conversations about which is currently the more attractive investment destination; high-flying energy stocks or beaten down financial stocks.

Its All About Earnings

When you take a look at the earnings picture, this argument becomes very one-sided.

Crude prices have recently dipped lower, but they are still very high when compared to historical norms, and this will translate into big earnings for energy companies. We can see this dynamic expressed through analyst estimates.

Encore Acquisition Co. (NYSE: EAC) shares are still trading up sharply on the year in spite of the stocks recent sell off, but estimates have risen in tandem with the stock price, with the current-year estimate advancing to $5.07 per share per share from $3.63 per share 90 days ago. This kind of earnings power provides plenty of fundamental strength for more share appreciation.

Continue reading Energy stocks vs. financial stocks

Energy stocks vs. financial stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Checking in with the lonely financial bulls

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Checking in with the lonely financial bulls originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Aug 2008 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.